Tether 收入接近 15 亿美元，而以太坊却跌破 2 亿美元

比特币 2025 年的发展势头有多少是由基本面驱动的，又有多少是由不再提供可靠方向的宏观系统驱动的？ 目录政策紧缩导致增长脆弱Political pressure meets market stressCrypto moves up the macro ladderStructural rotation is underway Fragile growth amid policy tightropes The global economy in 2025 is walking a tightrope. The deliberate reengineering of trade rules by the U.S. has created a new layer of uncertainty, making global markets more volatile and less predictable. 在特朗普总统的领导下，华盛顿大规模提高关税实际上改写了后全球化时代的剧本。这些变化重新引发了人们对潜在经济衰退的担忧，迫使各国央行、企业和政策制定者不断重新调整策略。 高盛预计，仅今年一年，美国实际关税税率就将上涨约16个百分点。这听起来像是技术上的调整，但其实际后果已然显现。 高盛目前预计美国 GDP 增长将大幅放缓，并将其对 2025 年的预测下调至 0.5%。未来 12 个月出现经济衰退的可能性已飙升至 45%。 与此同时，失业率预计将攀升至4.7%，核心PCE通胀率可能升至3.5%。经济增长放缓加上持续的通胀，使得政策制定几乎没有犯错的余地。 为了缓解影响，美联储预计将进行三次降息，分析师称之为“预防性降息”。然而，美联储必须在不重新引发通胀的情况下缓解劳动力市场压力，在全球经济环境如此脆弱的情况下，这项任务变得更加艰巨。 Japan is already feeling the spillover. As an export-heavy economy, it is particularly exposed to disruptions in global trade. Slower external demand and increasingly cautious corporate investment have dragged down Japan’s growth prospects.  Forecasts now put its GDP expansion at just 1.0% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026. The Bank of Japan, which had been preparing to raise interest rates, may be forced to delay those plans if a U.S.-led recession begins to unfold.  欧洲也处于类似的重新调整状态。高盛已将欧元区经济增长预期下调至 0.7%，同时还降低了通胀预期和欧洲央行终端利率预期。 受全球需求疲软和持续的金融紧缩影响，英国的经济前景也不容乐观。 在新兴市场，类似的说法在各个地区都有所体现。中国2025年的增长预期已下调至4.0%。更令人震惊的是，通胀可能转为负值。虽然预计会进一步降息，但这可能无法抵消关税和大宗商品价格下跌带来的更广泛拖累。 其他发展中经济体，尤其是拉丁美洲、中欧和亚洲部分地区，也在下调预期。对其中许多国家而言，金融环境收紧和全球需求萎缩已成为决定性障碍。 正如诺贝尔奖得主保罗·克鲁格曼所言，“导致经济衰退的并非政策转变的规模，而是政策转变所带来的不确定性。而目前，政策逆转实际上可能会使情况恶化，因为它们会加剧不确定性。” 那么，这一切对于2025年的资本市场、投资策略以及加密货币行业意味着什么呢？让我们来探讨一下。 政治压力遇上市场压力 股票市场开始出现明显的紧张迹象，这不仅是因为关税本身，还因为经济政策的混乱感日益增强。 4月21日，标准普尔500指数下跌2.4%，纳斯达克指数下跌2.6%，道琼斯指数暴跌近1000点，抹去了前一周的所有涨幅。此次回调并非由任何单一事件引发，而是多重风险以令人不安的方式交织在一起的结果。 The first pressure point is the Trump administration’s tariff decisions. A 145% import tax on Chinese goods has reignited tensions with Beijing, prompting global investors to reevaluate supply chain exposure, manufacturing costs, and long-term earnings assumptions.  In turn, China has issued strong warnings, threatening retaliation against any country that aligns with U.S. trade terms it deems harmful. This tit-for-tat tone has reintroduced an element of strategic risk that goes beyond pure economics. Further compounding the situation is the widening rift between the White House and the Fed. Chair Jerome Powell recently acknowledged that the latest wave of tariffs could push inflation higher while slowing growth, a difficult combination that limits the Fed’s policy flexibility.  但特朗普总统的回应方式却进一步加剧了动荡。 近日，特朗普公开称鲍威尔为“大输家”，并重申应立即降息的观点。他甚至表示，鲍威尔的“下台还不够快”。 据报道，白宫正在幕后积极探索通过法律途径，在鲍威尔任期结束前将其免职。这引发了人们对美联储长期以来的独立性可能面临风险的担忧。 其影响已波及股市之外。截至本文撰写时，追踪美元兑一篮子主要货币汇率的美元指数已从上周的 99.38 跌至 98.52，创三年来的最低水平。 虽然美元走弱通常会支撑出口和企业盈利，但这种下降似乎反映出人们对美国宏观政策的一致性和可信度的更深层次的担忧。 Bond markets, too, are reacting. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has climbed to 4.38% from 4.33%, continuing an upward trend this month.  This suggests that investors are selling off long-dated government bonds, either in anticipation of rising inflation or as a defensive move against the risk that the Fed could be pushed into premature rate cuts under political pressure. 与此同时，金价悄然飙升至历史新高。金价一度突破每盎司 3,500 美元，截至 4 月 22 日稳定在 3,451 美元左右。在这样的环境下，传统风险资产和加密货币等另类资产的定位都可能发生变化。 加密货币在宏观层面上不断攀升 在全球股市开始出现裂痕之际，加密货币市场却悄然走上了一条不同的道路。截至4月22日，加密货币总市值已攀升至2.77万亿美元，高于4月9日贸易紧张局势首次升级时的2.40万亿美元，增幅约为15%。 推动此次复苏的一个主要因素是机构投资者对比特币（BTC）的兴趣重燃。根据SoSoValue的数据，4月21日，现货比特币ETF净流入3.814亿美元，较前一天增长逾250%，创下自1月30日以来的最大单日流入量。 然而，这种信心并未延伸至以太坊（ETH）。与比特币的上涨势头形成鲜明对比的是，以太币现货ETF当天录得2542万美元的净流出，这是连续第八周出现净流出，自这一趋势开始以来，总流出金额已接近9.1亿美元。 Bitcoin’s growing dominance is also reflected in its price action. Despite turbulence in equities, Bitcoin has continued to build on its gains, crossing the $90,000 threshold as of this writing and trading at $90,600 levels. Meanwhile, BTC’s market cap has returned to levels above $1.80 trillion, a milestone not seen since late March.  BTC price chart | Source: crypto.news Ethereum’s path, meanwhile, is moving in the opposite direction. The ETH/BTC ratio has now dropped to 0.01787, a level not seen since Jan. 2020.  仅在过去24小时内，该比率就下跌了近5%，过去一个月更是下跌了24%。同比来看，跌幅更为显著，以太坊兑比特币的价值下跌了67%。截至本文撰写时，ETH的交易价格为1700美元。 本质上，尽管整体金融体系仍在与不确定性和政策风险作斗争，但比特币不仅在短期内成功与股市脱钩，还保持了上涨势头。更广泛的加密货币市场正在慢慢迎头赶上。 结构性轮动正在进行 比特币的短期前景似乎正在从被动交易转向更具结构性的市场。目前形成的信号表明，2025 年的走势可能不再由日常风险情绪所决定，而是由流动性流动、政策应对以及投资者在日益不稳定的环境中如何定义对冲资产的更深层次的重构所决定。 宏观投资者 Raoul Pal 提出了尖锐的观点，美元需要贬值。不是通过突然贬值，而是通过渐进的、可控的贬值，以减轻持有大量美元债务的国家的还款压力。 Everyone needs and wants a weaker dollar to service their dollar debts. No one wants it to move too fast ( it blows up VAR) but they need it lower over next 12 months. This is the purest form of global liquidity and is the largest driver of global M2 currently. The US knows this…— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) April 22, 2025 他表示，美元走软，尤其是受到广泛流动性扩张影响的美元走软，可能成为 2025 年资产重新定价的最强大催化剂。比特币将从中直接受益。 与此同时，债券市场也在施加自身的压力。正如宏观分析师托马斯指出的那样，10年期美国国债收益率近期升至4.5%，这已经重塑了政策预期。 两周前，美国国债市场迫使特朗普突然大幅调整关税。“特朗普看跌期权”似乎将达到美国 10 年期国债收益率约 4.5% 的水平。但尽管股市遭遇抛售，收益率现在又开始上升。I previously said that if 10-year… pic.twitter.com/1GmnO8jjrb— Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) April 21, 2025 The Trump administration has reportedly softened its tariff tone in response, recognizing that persistent yield spikes could tighten financial conditions too sharply. If yields continue to climb, the need for either diplomatic trade progress or liquidity injections becomes more urgent. That liquidity could arrive in several forms. The Fed remains the obvious actor, but the U.S. Treasury is also in play. Its recent consideration of bond buybacks, aimed at improving liquidity in older securities, hints at a broader toolkit being quietly assembled.  Each of these levers increases the flow of capital, which could indirectly lift Bitcoin by boosting available liquidity across risk markets. Still, the economic undercurrent is weakening. Growth projections are being revised downward across the board. High-frequency indicators like the Citi Economic Surprise Index and real-time GDP trackers are rolling over.  更广泛的宏观形势并非强劲，而是动能减弱，这为降息打开了大门，或者至少是降息预期日益增强。 这种预期已不再与政治无关。特朗普已公开敦促美联储降息，此举或许不会决定最终结果，但无疑会影响投资者的预期。政治噪音正在成为宏观经济方程式的一部分，市场也做出了相应的反应。 与此同时，投资者行为也开始反映这种转变。正如 Axel Adler Jr 所指出的，钱包活动在过去十天里激增，预示着新一轮的增持。 新投资者已开始入市。过去10天的指标显示买入信号。在2021年中国矿场禁令后的市场调整以及之前6.5万美元水平的市场调整中，也观察到了类似的新投资者行为模式。反对… pic.twitter.com/TyUZRVOOIRB— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) April 22, 2025 He compares the current trend with early 2021, when similar inflows followed structural shocks like China’s mining ban and major price resets. This return of strategic buyers is happening just as the traditional macro playbook starts to break down. If the prevailing forces, slower growth, political pressure on monetary policy, soft liquidity maneuvers, and a weaker dollar persist through the second half of 2025, Bitcoin could see growing institutional alignment.  For now, the signals are subtle but telling. Capital is beginning to rotate, quietly and purposefully, and Bitcoin is once again part of the core conversation. Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

欧洲央行官员表示，数字欧元的条件支付可以扩展到预定的转账范围之外，尽管它们不需要区块链技术。 欧洲央行执行委员会成员皮耶罗·西波洛内表示，欧洲央行认为数字欧元支付具有巨大潜力，这种支付只有在满足特定条件时才会发生，而不仅仅是定期的转账。 Cipollone 告诉路透社，对于有条件付款，交易只有在满足条件时才会执行，并补充说，如今的付款“只有一种类型……基于时间：在某个日期向这个人支付这笔钱。我们认为我们可以做得更好。” “我们很惊讶收到了 100 份邀请。人们想尝试新的想法。我们将在接下来的六个月内这样做，然后准备一份报告。”

基于以太坊的跨链协议 Orbiter Finance 宣布将赞助唐纳德·特朗普的就职演说，同时空投其新的治理代币。 根据 Etherscan 的数据，Orbiter Finance 已经向特朗普代币的智能合约钱包 World Liberty Financial 捐赠了第一笔 10 ETH（价值约 33,607 美元）。这笔捐赠是通过 Orbiter 的 OmniChain 互操作性协议进行的。 唐纳德·特朗普定于 1 月 20 日星期一中午左右在国会大厦圆形大厅内宣誓就任总统。 在最近的一篇文章中，该协议还承诺在唐纳德·特朗普上任后，将继续提供捐款。 Orbiter 并不是唯一一家赞助特朗普就职典礼的加密货币公司。据 Politico 报道，包括 Ripple、Coinbase、Kraken 和 Robinhood 在内的主要加密货币公司已向特朗普就职典礼基金捐赠了至少 1000 万美元，以欢迎这位支持加密货币的新当选总统入主白宫。 你可能还喜欢：Orbiter Finance 将在特朗普就职典礼上空投 OBT 代币 在捐赠公告发布之前，Orbiter 宣布将在特朗普就职典礼当天发行其治理代币 OBT。 该协议已将代币总供应量的约 40% 分配给社区空投。正如 crypto.news 之前报道的那样，22% 的合格用户将获得该分配的初始 22%。剩余的 3% 空投将在六个月内每月分发。 为了获得空投资格，用户必须自 2021 年 12 月起至少 60 天与 Orbiter 的跨链协议进行积极交互。 巧合的是，在就职典礼之前，特朗普于 1 月 18 日推出了自己的 meme 币 $TRUMP（TRUMP）。$TRUMP 代币在推出后的 24 小时内，其市值就已超过 100 亿美元。 Coinbase 前首席技术官 Balaji Srinivasan 曾敦促候任总统通过邮件列表向每位美国公民空投一些 $TRUMP 代币。他认为，大规模空投可能会让民主党人支持特朗普的总统任期以及他的亲加密货币政策。 你可能还喜欢：前 Coinbase 高管建议向每位美国公民空投 100 美元的 $TRUMP

XRP has just tested a powerful support zone where multiple technical signals converge. A successful hold here may pave the way for a fresh rally toward key resistance levels, including a run at $3.00. Ripple (XRP) dipped to the lower boundary of its long-term trading channel, only to find buyers stepping in at a level also marked by the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of its prior swing. Simultaneously, price reclaimed the 200-day moving average and held above it. This alignment of support factors suggests that the recent pullback could be a low-risk entry point for bulls targeting higher levels—provided the setup holds up. Key technical points, Channel Low + 0.618 Fib Support:XRP tapped the rising channel floor, drawn from multi-month lows, right where the 0.618 retracement of the last major impulse also sits. 200-Day MA & Value Area Low:After briefly dipping below, price has reclaimed both the 200-day moving average and the monthly Value Area Low, confirming strong demand. Bullish Structure Flip:A higher low above these supports, followed by a higher high above the prior swing, signals a renewed uptrend on the higher timeframe. XRP USDT (1D) Chart Source: TradingView Detailed analysis When XRP returned to its channel floor, it coincided perfectly with a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the previous major rally. This dual alignment created pronounced buying interest, as longer-term holders viewed the dip as a value-buying opportunity. The presence of above-average volume on the rebound further confirmed that demand was genuine and not merely a short-lived scalp. Holding above the 200-day moving average added another layer of confidence for trend-followers. This average often acts as a barometer of long-term momentum, and XRP’s ability to close multiple days above it highlighted that bulls were still in control of the broader uptrend. Defending this level was critical to maintaining bullish conviction and preventing deeper retracements into lower support zones. You might also like:Bitcoin hits technical ceiling: is a drop to $86k next? Finally, once price moved back above its recent swing high, it completed a clear higher-high, higher-low sequence, textbook confirmation of an uptrend. Momentum indicators also began turning upward again, suggesting that buyers were ready to push price toward the next major hurdles. As long as XRP stays above that recent higher low and the 200-day MA, the setup remains valid for a continuation toward the Point of Control near $2.80 and, ultimately, the $3.00 range-top target. What to expect in the coming price action If this support cluster continues to hold, XRP’s next logical target is the mid-range region around $2.80, where the Point of Control resides and offers an interim supply zone. A decisive break above that level could then propel the token toward the $3.00 area, which aligns with the upper boundary of the long-term channel and a previous order block. Traders should watch volume on any retest of the channel floor: higher volume on bounces reinforces the bullish case, while selling pressure could signal weakness. Conversely, a sustained close below the 200-day MA and channel support would invalidate this thesis, likely leading to a deeper retracement and the need to reassess the trend. Read more:Experts back Solana, Sui, and this rising altcoin to continue crypto domination

继 2023 年亏损 5000 万美元之后，区块链游戏开发商 Immutable 声称其 2024 年的业绩已经反弹，收入超过 1.1 亿美元。 据《澳大利亚金融评论报》援引该公司最近的文件报道，区块链游戏开发商 Immutable 以《Gods Unchained》和《Guild of Guardians》等游戏而闻名，在报告 2023 年亏损 5000 万美元后，其业绩有所改善。 Immutable 2023 年的财务业绩显示亏损巨大，该公司将此归咎于艰难的加密市场、全球监管和高昂的营销成本。不过，这家区块链游戏开发商对其未来仍持乐观态度。 该公司发言人在《澳大利亚金融评论报》的评论中表示，Immutable 现在的表现要好得多，并补充说，该公司 2024 财年的收入已经超过 1.1 亿美元，比上一年增长了 50%。 You might also like:Immutable announces strategic partnership with Altura 在 Immutable 推出与 Polygon Labs 合作开发的自有第 2 层网络 Immutable zkEVM 后，收入激增。Immutable 还投资了 web3 游戏领域，推出了 1 亿美元的基金来支持游戏开发者。 2022 年 3 月，Immutable 在由新加坡国有投资公司淡马锡牵头的 C 轮融资中筹集了 2 亿美元，估值达到 25 亿美元。参与此次融资的其他投资者包括 Mirae Asset、ParaFi Capital、Declaration Partners 和腾讯控股。 2025 年 2 月下旬，Immutable 联合创始人 Robbie Ferguson 分享称，几家估值超过 10 亿美元的游戏公司似乎愿意发行代币。与此同时，链上游戏活动激增。根据 DappRadar 于 2 月 13 日发布的游戏报告，2025 年 1 月，区块链游戏的每日独立活跃钱包数量超过 700 万，比去年同期增长了 386%。 阅读更多：Immutable 因 2021 年 IMX 代币销售收到 SEC Wells 通知