PlanB doubles down on $400k target for Bitcoin, analysts urge caution
With Bitcoin hovering around $104,000, PlanB is already mapping a path to $400,000, though some see more fiction than forecast.
Bitcoinâs (BTC) recent rally to $104,000 has put bulls back in the driverâs seat. At least thatâs the takeaway from PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the Stock-to-Flow model. In a new video, he outlines why the party might just be getting started â and how the next stop could be $400,000.
PlanB pointed out that the market ended up staging a V-shaped recovery after all. Back in late March, Bitcoin was around $82,000. By the end of April, it had jumped to $94,000, and as of press time, itâs sitting at $104,000. To him, that wasnât just a rebound, and it looked like a clear sign the bull market was back.
Heâs sticking with his long-term model. The S2F average for the 2024-2028 halving cycle is $500,000. That number may sound far-fetched, especially today, but PlanB isnât fazed, as heâs saying the market is only âone year into the cycle, with three years to go.â
Why so bullish
A big piece of the puzzle is Bitcoinâs relative scarcity.As PlanB reminds, Bitcoin is âtwice as scarce as gold,â noting, though, that gold is âworth ten times more.âThat, to him, screams undervaluation.
The chart that gives him confidence? His market cycle model. Created in 2022, it showed no âyellowâ distribution signal when Bitcoin was at $82,000, a phase that usually precedes a bear market. Instead, the red signals he saw suggested bull continuation, calling it a âvery weird, long, flat bull market.â
Bitcoinâs RSI | Source: PlanB
The analyst also referred to RSI, or Relative Strength Index, saying that right now, the metric is at 66, which is above average and rising.
âI think weâll see 80+ RSI months again â at least four of them â just like in the bull markets of 2021, 2020, 2017, and 2013. [â¦] If weâre at an average price of $100,000 now⦠that would already bring us into the $400,000 area.â
PlanB
Some agree, with caveats
Vugar Usi Zade, COO at Bitget, noted in an interview with crypto.news that PlanBâs $400,000 Bitcoin forecast leans on two pillars: a multi-year âfour-phaseâ cycle and the S2F framework. He admitted that the timeline matches prior post-halving cycles, saying the market now sits ânear month 12-15 of the current cycle â early but not alarmingly so.â
âPlanBâs $400k Bitcoin forecast leans on two pillars: a multi-year âfour-phaseâ cycle and the S2F framework. The timeline aligns with past patterns, but macro and market-structure changes inject far more uncertainty than in 2013 or 2017.â
Usi Zade
But this time, itâs not just retail and hype. Thereâs institutional capital, structured derivatives, and macro risks to consider.
âUnlike prior cycles, institutional adoption, regulated derivatives, and on-chain analytics now smoothen volatility and may extend cycles rather than compress them. But itâs important to consider that we face potential Fed rate pivots and geopolitical flare-ups. Such tail risks can abruptly truncate cycles. Also, a greater correlation to equities means Bitcoin may no longer behave as a stand-alone âdigital goldâ store of value. Cycle timing can blur when broader risk assets sell off.â
Usi Zade
He also points out the move to $104,000 may not be entirely organic as Aprilâs cooler inflation and dovish Fed tones triggered a broad ârisk-onâ rebound. According to Usi Zade, much of the move to $104,000 âcould simply reflect short-covering and equity correlation.â
That makes the $110,000-$115,000 level critical as a failure there could see ârapid retracement toward $88,000-$92,000,â Usi Zade suggests.
As for the $400,000 target, the Bitget COO is even more cautious. He explains that while halving events do cut new supply and S2F did line up with prices in the past, the 2021 bull market broke the modelâs predictive streak.
âSo, S2F retains some heuristic value but no longer commands unqualified trust. Treat its $400k figure as a broad âupper-bound scenarioâ rather than a hard forecast.â
Usi Zade
Usi Zade told crypto news that the $400,000 S2F target now sits more as an âaspirational upper boundâ than a high-confidence price projection.
âEverybodyâs in profitâ
Another bullish signal for PlanB: rising realized prices. The 5-month realized price for short-term buyers is $92,000 now, and Bitcoin sits above this level.
âThatâs how we want to see it. Thatâs also a sign of a bull market. Everybodyâs in profit. Thereâs not much pain in the market. Weâll see what that brings.â
PlanB
You might also like:Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model creator PlanB slams Ethereum, calls it âpremined shitcoinâ
Even the 200-week moving average â a key long-term support â is ticking up. As of press time, itâs at around $47,000. For context: in previous cycles, this average marked the bottom. But now, PlanB sees the growing gap between that and price as more fuel for a bullish thesis.
Bitcoinâs 200WMA | Source: Coinglass
Tracy Jin, COO of MEXC, agrees with PlanB on the mechanics, though isnât convinced by the pace. Yes, Bitcoin can post huge monthly gains, but ânot without significant retail participation fueling the rallies.â Right now, she points out, that retail frenzy hasnât shown up.
âPlanBâs $400,000 projection aligns with historical patterns of exponential price moves during past bull markets. Still, this should not give investors the reason to treat such models as directional tools instead of precise forecasts. A better strategy is to have a diversified view, balancing on-chain data with macro trends, sentiment analysis, and risk management.â
Tracy Jin
The MEXC COO pointed out that although 40% monthly returns are possible, maintaining that level of momentum without widespread retail enthusiasm is unlikely. Jin calls todayâs market âin transition,â explaining further that itâs ânot fully bearish, but not yet in a full-fledged retail-driven rally.â Institutional players are definitely here, she says, adding that regulations have become tighter.
âWhile 40% monthly returns are not impossible, sustaining that level of momentum without broad retail euphoria is unlikely. Such aggressive moves would now require favorable macro conditions, institutional flows, and a strong narrative to drive market-wide conviction.â
Tracy Jin
âPositive sign for altcoinsâ
Analysts at crypto payment gateway B2BinPay echoed some of the optimism but stressed caution. In a commentary for crypto.news, they noted that if Bitcoin starts moving below the $93,000 level and consolidates there, the market is âunlikely to see a quick move toward a new ATH.â
âInstead, the price may pull back into the $88,000-$86,000 range. However, if Bitcoin shows strength from here, breaks above its ATH, and manages to stay above it, we could start looking at the next target zones â anywhere between $124,000 and $134,000.â
B2BinPay
Addressing Bitcoin dominance, the analysts say they consider it as a âvery positive sign for altcoins,â adding that on the daily chart, âwe can clearly see a break of the uptrend line that had held since Dec. 3, 2024, through May 9, 2025.â
âThat said, dominance is still at a relatively high level, and thereâs a lot of liquidity built up below, most of it is compressed. And compressed liquidity tends to be released quickly. So, thereâs a good chance weâll see a fast move down to around 54% dominance, possibly sooner than expected. If that happens, altcoins might surprise us in a big way.â
B2BinPay
PlanB himself admits that some models âare wrong, some are useful,â but todayâs market is clearly driven by more than just charts and halvings.
Central banks, global politics, and cryptoâs correlation with broader markets all play a role. Keeping that in view, B2BinPay analysts arenât expecting a sudden surge in volatility in the short-term as summer approaches, noting that âsummer tends to be a quiet season in the crypto market.â
Read more:PlanB transfers Bitcoin to ETFs, prefers âpeace of mindâ
2025-05-16 23:17:00
1