2025-04-16 05:40:00
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以太坊如履薄冰:即将跌破 1,000 美元吗?

以太坊如履薄冰:即将跌破 1,000 美元吗?

以太坊已重新进入多年来的交易区间,持续疲软,且没有上涨动能的迹象。目前价格徘徊在通道中点附近,技术指标显示,价格有可能全面回调至区间低点——这一水平可能引发大幅反弹或历史性跌幅。

以太坊 (ETH) 的价格走势正发出严重的警告信号,在跌回关键的多年交易区间后,它难以维持任何看涨结构。自突破高位以来,ETH 一直遵循着典型的看跌模式:重新进入区间,再次看跌测试,目前在通道中点盘整。虽然该区域目前充当着暂时的支撑位,但整体走势——尤其是在周线图上——仍然极其疲软。

除非 ETH 能很快展现出强势迹象,否则可能会进一步回调至区间低点支撑位。上次价格测试该水平时,出现了强劲的扩张。然而,如果这次未能守住该水平,以太坊可能会跌破 1,000 美元,创下近期历史新高。

本文涵盖的要点:

  • Ethereum has re-entered a multi-year trading range, confirming a bearish structure
  • Price is currently sitting at the channel midpoint, struggling to establish support
  • 如果未能在此展现实力,则价格跌至 1,000 美元以下的可能性就会增加

Ethereum on thin ice: is a drop below $1,000 imminent? - 1
资料来源:TradingView

自2022年6月以来,以太坊一直维持着这一长期交易区间的边界。近期价格重回该区间后,再次测试并回吐了上轨,这证实了其弱势——典型的看跌回测。随后,以太坊跌向通道中点,目前正试图在该点企稳。然而,目前尚无买家入场的明显迹象,这使得当前的反弹显得脆弱不堪。

From a technical perspective, a full rotation to the range low makes sense. This would complete the range cycle and potentially allow ETH to establish a more reliable base for a future move higher. However, if that low support range fails, Ethereum would likely break below the critical psychological and historical support level of $1,000 — something that would send shockwaves through the market.

It’s also crucial to remember that price tends to complete business on both sides of a trading range before initiating a directional move. Right now, the “business” at the lower end of the range hasn’t been completed, suggesting further downside is still in play unless strength emerges fast. Traders should keep a close eye on price behavior near the range low and any signs of bullish reversal structures forming there.

How to Trade This Setup:

寻找区间低点的强势信号,例如摆动失败形态或强劲的看涨吞噬,以考虑做多。然而,要警惕低于1000美元的跌幅,这将使看涨设置失效,并需要重新评估结构和风险。

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