8
Crypto plummeted amid a tariffs-driven market turmoil this week, and analysts at Nansen believe further escalation between the United States and China represents the worst-case scenario.
在投资者陷入全面恐慌之际，Nansen 分享了他们的市场观点，比特币 (BTC) 和加密货币在大规模抛售行动中遭受了新的打击。如果随着中美关税战升级，全球经济增长受到冲击，又将出现另一场暴跌。
目前，“玫瑰园声明”之后全球股市暴跌，而 BTC 回吐涨幅并在“黑色星期一”跌破 75,000 美元。
但分析师们也预见到了其他情况，他们认为对于投资者来说，总体来说最好的选择是保持耐心。
Nansen 的 Aurelie Barthere 在《本周后：市场更新》报告中写道，市场对关税的反应表明，人们对美国经济增长可能放缓的担忧加剧。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布对中国加征额外关税后，恐慌情绪加剧。
In response, China introduced retaliatory tariffs and restrictions on rare earth exports. Trump then threatened an additional 50% tariff hike on Chinese goods.
Nansen says this represents the beginning of the worst-case scenario for risk assets and crypto.
“This is what the beginning of the worst case looks like. It would be growth-negative for every country, and mark the beginning of a global growth shock. We would not touch crypto before deep bear market levels if this scenario unfolds,†the analyst noted.
虽然这种结果仍有可能，但 Nansen 认为最好的情况可以作为潜在的平衡。2025 年 4 月 9 日（互惠关税生效之时）之前降级可能标志着比特币的底部。
尽管南森认为这种最佳结果出现的概率仅为 15%，但分析师表示，这种事件可能导致风险资产市场趋于稳定，并导致数字资产大幅反弹。
相比之下，最坏情况发生的概率为 30%。
Nansen’s base case, however, carries a 55% likelihood. In this scenario, some form of negotiation takes place, and an eventual resolution helps crypto recover. June remains a key milestone, as initially emphasized by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
If this is the case, then markets are likely to remain choppy amid uncertainty. Bitcoin and equities will seesaw as earnings and tariffs fallout dictate sentiment.
As for what may help the markets, the Fed coming to the rescue, Nansen notes.
But only a weaker labor market and “some visible economic deterioration†could force the Fed’s hand. In this case, analysts see patience as the best approach as investors weigh the escalation vs. negotiation space.
浏览量5
浏览量5
浏览量10
浏览量4
浏览量5
