美联储的“震惊”警告可能导致比特币和山寨币价格暴跌

Jennifer Rosenthal，前 Grayscale Investments 传播主管，已担任 DeFi 教育基金首席传播官 罗森塔尔宣布了她在 X 的新职位，表达了她对推动去中心化金融的热情，并倡导支持其在美国发展的政策。 在灰度任职期间，罗森塔尔带领沟通团队取得了重大进展，其中包括公司为推动美国现货比特币 ETF 而做出的法律努力。 Crypto.com 在马耳他获得 MiCA 许可证 去中心化金融教育 DeFi 教育基金是一个研究和倡导组织，致力于向政策制定者和公众宣传去中心化金融。 随着罗森塔尔的任命，DEF 旨在加强其沟通策略，以便更好地告知和吸引利益相关者了解 DeFi 领域内的优势和创新。 罗森塔尔强调了未来几年对于塑造美国区块链创新未来的重要性。

比特币的下行压力已导致抛售动力从较新的货币转向较旧的货币，在整体市场疲软的背景下，抛售逐渐出现。 链上指标和数据洞察平台 Glassnode 表示，比特币 (BTC) 的下行压力已经导致抛售动力从较新的货币转向较旧的货币，在整体市场疲软的背景下，比特币逐渐出现投降。 今年迄今，BTC 已下跌逾 17%，其中过去一周下跌 9%。关税和更广泛的经济不确定性给包括比特币在内的风险资产带来了沉重压力。 鉴于此，3 至 6 个月内加密货币的已实现亏损比例已升至 19% 以上。在 2 月 27 日熊市情绪爆发之前，这一比例仅为 0.8% 左右。 Glassnode 在 X 上发帖称，“与今年迄今为止比特币的大规模抛售相比，损失现在正蔓延到较旧的比特币，尤其是 300 万至 600 万的比特币，自 2 月 27 日以来，其损失占总损失的比例从 0.8% 跃升至 19.4%。” 您可能还喜欢：随着中国对美国商品征收 84% 的关税，比特币跌至 76,000 美元——美联储会干预吗？ 该平台分享的图表显示，按年龄指标计算的 BTC 实际损失在 4 月份急剧飙升。 Glassnode 提供的按年龄划分的 BTC 已实现损失图表 截至二月底，发行时间较短的货币（发行时间为一周至一个月和一个月至三个月）占总损失的 50% 以上。 然而，尽管当时 300 万至 600 万人群占总损失的比例不到 1%，但此后趋势发生了逆转，现在这一群体所占份额明显增大。 随着比特币价格在2月底从86,000美元上方回落，这种转变愈演愈烈。3月份，比特币价格再次跌破75,000美元的支撑位，加速了300万至600万持有者走向投降的步伐。截至3月11日，100万至300万持有者的亏损占比已降至约16.3%，而300万至600万持有者的亏损占比则上升至4.9%。 截至4月7日，损失在1周至100万和300万至600万之间平均分配，各占约19%。这标志着损失实现的结构性转变，并表明中期持有者面临持续的压力。🔻 $BTC: $78.9k, realized losses: $34.4M🔹1w–1m: $8.2M (23.8%)🔹1m–3m: $6.5M (18.9%)…– glassnode (@glassnode) 2025 年 4 月 9 日 尽管 BTC 总损失已降至约 4100 万美元，但 Glassnode 的链上数据显示，较老的群组正在经历“逐渐扩大的投降”。截至 4 月初，1w-1m 和 3m-6m 群组分别占已实现损失的 19% 左右。 分析师指出：“这标志着损失实现的结构性转变，并表明中期持有者面临持续压力。” 比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌了 2%。 您可能还喜欢：Yuan drops to 2007 lows after tariffs, could Bitcoin be the new safe haven?

美国家庭债务刚刚达到 18 万亿美元，抵押贷款利率惨不忍睹，比特币的供应紧缩正在加剧。旧的致富之路正在崩塌吗？ 目录房地产正在快速放缓从稀缺对冲到流动性陷阱房屋太多，硬币太少翻盘不是要来，而是已经到来 房地产正在快速放缓 多年来，房地产一直是积累财富最可靠的方式之一。房屋价值通常会随着时间的推移而上涨，而房产所有权长期以来一直被认为是一项安全的投资。 但目前，房地产市场正显示出多年来未曾有过的放缓迹象。房屋在市场上停留的时间更长。卖家正在降价。买家正苦苦挣扎于高昂的抵押贷款利率。 根据最近的数据，目前平均房屋售价比要价低 1.8%——这是近两年来最大的折扣。与此同时，出售一套普通房屋所需的时间已延长至 56 天，这是五年来最长的等待时间。 突发消息：目前美国房屋的平均售价比要价低 1.8%，为两年来的最大折扣。这也是2019年以来最低的读数之一。目前，一套普通房屋平均需要约 56 天才能售出，这是 5 年来最长的售出时间……pic.twitter.com/DhULLgTPoL— Kobeissi 的来信 (@KobeissiLetter) 2025 年 2 月 17 日 在佛罗里达州，销售放缓更为明显。在迈阿密和劳德代尔堡等城市，超过 60% 的房屋已滞销两个多月。该州一些房屋的售价比挂牌价低 5% 之多，是全国最大的折扣。 与此同时，对于寻求稀缺、有价值资产的投资者来说，比特币（BTC）正成为一种越来越有吸引力的替代品。 BTC price chart | Source: crypto.news BTC 最近创下了 109,114 美元的历史新高，随后于 2 月 19 日回落至 95,850 美元。即使有所下跌，在机构需求激增的推动下，BTC 在过去一年中仍上涨了 83% 以上。 那么，随着房地产越来越难出售，持有成本越来越高，比特币能否成为最终的价值存储手段呢？让我们来一探究竟。 从稀缺对冲到流动性陷阱 受高抵押贷款利率、房价上涨和流动性下降的影响，房地产市场正在急剧放缓。 30 年期平均抵押贷款利率仍然高达 6.96%，与疫情前常见的 3%-5% 利率形成鲜明对比。 U.S. mortgages rates | Source: Mortgage News Daily Meanwhile, the median U.S. home-sale price has risen 4% year-over-year, but this increase hasn’t translated into a stronger market—affordability pressures have kept demand subdued. Several key trends highlight this shift: The median time for a home to go under contract has jumped to 34 days, a sharp increase from previous years, signaling a cooling market. A full 54.6% of homes are now selling below their list price, a level not seen in years, while just 26.5% are selling above. Sellers are increasingly forced to adjust their expectations as buyers gain more leverage. 房屋售价与挂牌价的中位数比率已降至 0.990，反映出买家谈判能力增强，而卖家实力下降。 但并非所有房屋都受到同等影响。位于黄金地段且可立即入住的房产继续吸引买家，而位于较不理想地段或需要装修的房产则面临大幅折扣。 但随着借贷成本的飙升，房地产市场的流动性已大大降低。许多潜在的卖家不愿放弃他们的低固定利率抵押贷款，而买家则难以承受更高的月供。 缺乏流动性是一个根本性的弱点。与可以全天候交易且几乎即时执行的比特币不同，房地产交易速度慢、成本高，而且通常需要数月才能完成。 随着经济不确定性的持续以及资本寻求更有效的价值存储，房地产的进入壁垒和低迷的流动性正在成为主要劣势。 Too many homes, too few coins While the housing market struggles with rising inventory and weakening liquidity, Bitcoin is experiencing the opposite — a supply squeeze that is fueling institutional demand. Unlike real estate, which is influenced by debt cycles, market conditions, and ongoing development that expands supply, Bitcoin’s total supply is permanently capped at 21 million.  比特币的绝对稀缺性现在正与不断增长的需求（尤其是来自机构投资者的需求）发生冲突，从而加强了比特币作为长期价值存储手段的地位。 2024 年初现货比特币 ETF 的批准引发了大规模机构资金流入，极大地改变了供需平衡。 自推出以来，这些 ETF 已吸引了超过 400 亿美元的净流入，其中贝莱德、Grayscale 和富达等金融巨头控制着大部分持股。 需求激增以前所未有的速度吸收了比特币，ETF 每日购买量从 1,000 到 3,000 BTC 不等——远远超过每天开采的约 500 个新币。这种不断增长的供应缺口导致比特币在公开市场上越来越稀缺。 比特币新供应量 | 来源：CryptoQuant At the same time, Bitcoin exchange reserves have dropped to 2.5 million BTC, the lowest level in three years. More investors are withdrawing their holdings from exchanges, signaling strong conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term potential rather than treating it as a short-term trade. Bitcoin exchange reserve balance | Source: CryptoQuant Further reinforcing this trend, long-term holders continue to dominate supply. As of December 2023, 71% of all Bitcoin had remained untouched for over a year, highlighting deep investor commitment.  比特币 1+ 年 HODLER 数据 |来源：Bitcoin Magazine Pro 虽然截至 2 月 18 日这一数字已略微下降至 62%，但总体趋势表明，随着时间的推移，比特币将成为一种越来越紧密的资产。 翻盘不是要来，而是已经到来 截至 2025 年 1 月，美国房屋售价中值为 350,667 美元，抵押贷款利率徘徊在 7% 左右。这些因素导致每月抵押贷款还款额创下历史新高，使得年轻一代越来越难以拥有自己的房子。 从这个角度来看： A 20% down payment on a median-priced home now exceeds $70,000—a figure that, in many cities, surpasses the total home price of previous decades. First-time homebuyers now represent just 24% of total buyers, a historic low compared to the long-term average of 40%–50%. Total U.S. household debt has surged to $18.04 trillion, with mortgage balances accounting for 70% of the total—reflecting the growing financial burden of homeownership. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has outperformed real estate over the past decade, boasting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 102.36% since 2011—compared to housing’s 5.5% CAGR over the same period. But beyond returns, a deeper generational shift is unfolding. Millennials and Gen Z, raised in a digital-first world, see traditional financial systems as slow, rigid, and outdated.  拥有像比特币这样的去中心化、无边界资产的想法比被捆绑在不可预测的房产税、保险费和维护费用中的 30 年期抵押贷款更有吸引力。 调查显示，年轻投资者越来越看重财务灵活性和流动性，而不是房屋所有权。许多人更喜欢租房并保持资产流动性，而不是承担房地产的非流动性。 比特币的可移植性、全天候交易和抗审查性与这种心态完全一致。 这是否意味着房地产正在变得过时？并不完全如此。它仍然是一种对冲通胀的工具，也是高需求地区的宝贵资产。 但房地产市场的低效性——加上比特币日益增长的机构认可度——正在重塑投资偏好。历史上第一次，数字资产作为长期价值存储手段与实体房地产直接竞争。 The question is no longer whether Bitcoin is an alternative to real estate — it’s how quickly investors will adjust to this new reality.

Bitcoin has surged over the past 24 hours, breaking through critical resistance levels and now heading testing the $101,200 mark, the final major hurdle before a new all-time high comes into view. The rally is being fueled by strong technical support and renewed bullish momentum. The recent pump in Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is no accident. After testing a key support level at $94,300, the market bounced sharply, validating that zone as a firm base. This bounce coincided with a prior rejection from Fibonacci resistance, highlighting growing strength on the daily time frame. With higher lows forming week after week, the bullish market structure has remained intact, laying the groundwork for the explosive move we’re seeing today. Key technical points: Support confirmed at $94,300:Strong daily candle closes and wick rejections show buyer demand Bullish market structure intact:Higher lows throughout the consolidation period hint at continuation Key resistance ahead at $101,200:Final major level before a potential breakout into new all-time highs BTCUSDT (1D) Chart, Source: TradingView Bitcoin’s recent price behavior shows a textbook bullish reaction at support. The $94,244–$94,300 zone has been tested multiple times, with price wicks dipping below only to be aggressively bought up, a strong indication of demand. These repeated defenses have boosted trader confidence, solidifying the area as a springboard for higher prices. The market responded with a swift expansion, clearing local resistances and pushing toward the $100,000 zone.Adding further strength is the broader weekly structure. Each week during the recent consolidation has formed a higher low, reinforcing the bullish outlook. This consistent structure, paired with sustained closes above the $94,300 region, suggests accumulation and readiness for a breakout. Traders who spotted these bullish cues likely positioned early, fueling the current momentum. You might also like:BingX unveils ChainSpot: A CeDeFi innovation for simpler and safer on-chain trading Now, Bitcoin is testing the $101,200 resistance, arguably the last line of defense for bears before new all-time highs are in play. This level carries historical significance and acts as a key high-timeframe resistance. Given the velocity of this rally, a direct breakout may not occur immediately. Instead, it’s more likely that Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase, forming a new range between $94,300 and $101,200. What to expect in the coming price action Following such a strong rally, rotational consolidation between $94,300 and $101,200 is likely. If bulls maintain control above $94,300 and absorb selling pressure near $101,000, the chances of a breakout into price discovery increase significantly. Until then, traders should monitor volume and candle structure within this range, any breakout from here could set the tone for Bitcoin’s next major move. Read more:Missouri tax bill exempts crypto and stock gains from income tax

Kraken has completed its acquisition of U.S futures trading platform NinjaTrader. The crypto exchange reportedly saw a rise in revenue and trading volume on a year-on-year basis. According to the crypto firm’s latest quarterly financial report, its NinjaTrader acquisition marks the largest deal between a traditional finance platform and a crypto firm. Although the firm’s press release did not disclose how much the acquisition cost, crypto.news previously reported that the deal cost around $1.5 billion. The company revealed that NinjaTrader will continue to operate as its own separate entity under the crypto exchange’s suite of applications. On the other hand, traders will soon be able to access traditional derivative products on the crypto exchange’s trading platform, while NinjaTrader futures traders will also be able to trade crypto on the futures broker’s platform. “Kraken plans to introduce additional asset classes, including stocks, prediction markets, and options, to both platforms in the future,” wrote the crypto firm in a statement. The move comes after the crypto firm declared a jump in earnings through its latest quarterly financial report. In Q1 2025, the crypto exchange generated around $472 million in gross revenue, signifying a 19% year-on-year increase. However, it dropped 7% compared to the previous quarter, which reached $506.3 million. You might also like:Mastercard teams up with Kraken to expand crypto payment services across Europe Despite the drop in quarterly revenue, the firm’s adjusted EBITDA earnings reached $187 million, rising by 1% compared to Q1 2024 and increasing by 17% on a year-on-year basis. Moreover, Kraken saw its overall trading volume grow by 29% on a year-on-year basis, reaching $208.7 billion in total transactions processed. Much like its quarterly gross revenue, this quarter’s total trading volume still paled in comparison to Q1 2024, which amounted to $230.9 billion. Meanwhile, the number of funded accounts on the platform saw a 26% increase year-on-year. Compared to the previous quarter, the amount of funded accounts rose by 400,000, from 3.5 million accounts to 3.9 million. Most recently, Kraken established a partnership with the second largest neobank in the EU, Bunq, to provide crypto trading services. Customers of the bank will be able to trade in more than 300 crypto assets, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL). Initially, the service is only available in six European nations, serving traders in the Netherlands, France, Spain, Ireland, Italy, and Belgium. Read more:Bunq partners with Kraken to launch crypto trading services