Ripple price prediction: A 1,500% boost to $27 — Is the 2017 bull run repeating?
如果美国证券交易委员会批准 ETF，XRP 价格预测将上涨 1,500%。Ripple 最终能否达到 27 美元并突破阻力位？
目录Ripple 的疯狂之旅XRP ETF 终于来了吗？XRP 的成败时刻即将来临XRP price prediction: Could history repeat itself?
Ripple’s wild ride
Ripple (XRP) has experienced a rollercoaster ride in recent months, capturing the market’s attention with large price swings and major regulatory developments.
On Jan. 16, the token surged to a multi-year high of $3.39, fueled by strong market sentiment. However, the rally was short-lived.
As of Feb. 17, XRP has pulled back to $2.68, marking a 21% decline from its January peak. It remains approximately 31% below its all-time high of $3.89, which was reached in January 2018.
Despite this pullback, XRP remains one of the top-performing assets in the top 100, delivering an impressive 145% return over the past 90 days. This outpaces heavyweights like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), both of which have lost value during the same period.
Amid these fluctuations, broader market forces are also at play. The election of President Donald Trump introduced a more crypto-friendly atmosphere in the U.S., with the Trump administration’s positive stance on digital assets boosting investor confidence. This, in turn, has contributed to the upward trajectory of crypto assets, including XRP.
Additionally, the resignation of SEC Chair Gary Gensler has further fueled optimism, as market participants anticipate a more accommodating regulatory environment under the new SEC leadership of acting chair Mark Uyeda.
With a mix of strong price action, regulatory intrigue, and shifting political winds, what can we expect from XRP? Let’s explore this further in our Ripple price prediction.
Is the XRP ETF finally coming?
Amid ongoing volatility and key developments, XRP has remained in the spotlight.
A major turning point came on Feb. 13, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission formally acknowledged a filing from the New York Stock Exchange and Grayscale Investments for a spot XRP exchange-traded fund.
The proposal outlines a plan to convert Grayscale’s existing $16.1 million XRP Trust into a fully tradable ETF, with Coinbase Custody Trust Company acting as the custodian and BNY Mellon handling administrative duties.
Update: @NYSE & @Grayscale have filed to convert Grayscale's XRP trust into an ETF. The trust currently has ~$16 mln in assets. pic.twitter.com/QAufZoKDkA— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) January 30, 2025
SEC 的承认意味着审查过程已经正式开始，为 240 天内可能的批准或拒绝奠定了基础。
第一个关键截止日期定于 3 月中旬，标志着为期 45 天的审查期的开始。此后，SEC 可能会做出决定或延长审查期限，预计最终决定将于 2025 年 10 月中旬做出。
但 Grayscale 并不是唯一一家推动 XRP ETF 的公司。芝加哥期权交易所也为 Bitwise 的 XRP ETF 提交了 19b-4 申请，其他公司也在争相申请批准。与试图将现有信托转换为 ETF 的 Grayscale 不同，Bitwise 正在推出一只全新的基金。
🚨新消息：@CBOE 刚刚代表@BitwiseInvest 和@CanaryFunds 为他们的 $XRP ETF 提交了 19b-4s。19b-4 表格是发行人提交 S-1 表格后 ETF 审批流程的下一步。19b-4 表格基本上是请求 @SECGov 允许他们上市和交易……pic.twitter.com/vMkoTk6G3P— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) February 6, 2025
Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, recently discussed the challenges and progress of XRP ETF applications. He noted that while previous filings have seen starts and stops, with some firms withdrawing their applications, the fact that multiple issuers are now refiling suggests that the SEC is at least open to considering these ETFs.
Hougan remains cautiously optimistic, pointing out that while approval could take time, the SEC is becoming more willing to engage in discussions about these products.Â
He also highlighted a key difference between XRP and other commodity-based ETFs like Bitcoin and gold — those assets had regulated futures markets before their ETFs were approved, whereas XRP does not.Â
Although a futures market is not mandatory for XRP ETFs, it would play a key role in the approval process.
What makes these filings particularly striking is the ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the SEC. In December 2020, the SEC sued Ripple, arguing that XRP had been sold as an unregistered security.
Ripple scored a partial victory in August 2023 when a federal judge ruled that XRP is not a security when traded on secondary markets. However, regulatory uncertainty still persists, making the ETF approval process for XRP more complex compared to spot Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum ETFs.
Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, pointed out the irony — while the SEC remains in litigation with Ripple, it is simultaneously reviewing an ETF that would hold XRP. Geraci even called it an “enormous message,†suggesting that the SEC’s stance on XRP might be shifting.
Shocked more people aren’t talking about SEC accepting XRP ETF filing…They have open litigation w/ Ripple.同时，他们只是承认有争议的ETF持有资产的申请（他们很容易就可以拒绝这份申请）。在我看来，这是一个巨大的信息。— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) 2025 年 2 月 14 日
更令人关注的是，彭博 ETF 分析师 James Seyffart 和 Eric Balchunas 估计，到 2025 年底 XRP ETF 获得批准的可能性为 65%。
我们的官方山寨币 ETF 批准概率已经出炉。莱特币以 90% 的概率领先，然后是 Doge，其次是 Solana 和 XRP。我们只针对 33 Act $IBIT 类文件进行审核。但肯定也能看到期货或开曼子公司类型 40 Act 的东西通过。https://t.co/JSaNnifjbu— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) February 10, 2025
XRP’s make-or-break moment looms
XRP is at a make-or-break moment, approaching a resistance level that has defined its fate for years.Â
Over the past two months, XRP has tested the $3.15 to $3.50 range, a zone that has consistently determined whether XRP breaks into a major rally or gets stuck in consolidation.
On Jan. 16, XRP reached a multi-year high of $3.39, but that attempt to push higher ultimately failed. Then, on Feb. 3, XRP plunged 43% to $1.94 as global markets were shaken by Trump’s tariff threats, causing a widespread selloff that led to one of the worst declines in crypto history.
Despite the chaos, XRP has since rebounded and is once again nearing the same resistance level, setting the stage for another potential breakout.
除了短期波动之外，更重要的事情正在发生。XRP 自 2018 年以来形成的圆底形态即将完成，这一结构耗时近七年才形成。
XRP 价格图表 | 来源：crypto.news
如果 XRP 达到历史最高价 3.89 美元，该模式将正式完成，标志着长期积累阶段的结束。届时，XRP 将进入价格发现阶段，这意味着将不再有历史阻力位来阻碍它。
现在的问题是，谁将提供最后的推动力。更广泛的市场条件尚未完全支持比特币，因为比特币尚未创下历史新高，流动性仍然集中在少数资产上。
最大的潜在催化剂之一是 ETF 批准。如果 SEC 批准 XRP ETF，机构需求可能会激增，凭借巨大的交易量推动价格突破阻力位。
Another key factor could be strategic adoption — if XRP is included in a financial system reserve or gains a major institutional use case, the surge in demand could propel it into uncharted territory.
The third wildcard is the SEC lawsuit appeal. If the appeal is dismissed, legal clarity alone could trigger a wave of buying.
Now, all eyes are on whether XRP can finally push through or if history will repeat itself once again. The next attempt to clear $3.50 may prove to be the most significant in its history.
XRP price prediction: Could history repeat itself?
XRP’s 2017 bull run remains a key reference point, with several indicators suggesting that XRP is now mirroring the setup that led to its parabolic rise.Â
One of the bullish arguments comes from Egrag Crypto, which points to the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB), a technical indicator used to determine whether an asset is in a bullish or bearish phase.
#XRP – Double Digits – 1500% Pump ⛽ï¸:让我们分析一下 #XRP 发生的事情：1 英镑牛市支撑带 (BMSB)：这是我们确定我们是处于 #BullRun 还是 #BearMarket 的关键指标。目前，我们位于 BMSB 上方。我在之前提到过……pic.twitter.com/PNB4OmuCN8— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) 2025 年 2 月 6 日
“目前，我们的仓位位于 BMSB 上方，”他解释道，并指出他曾预测 XRP 将重新回到这一水平，即使当时价格为 3.40 美元。成功重新测试这一支撑位可能表明市场正在为下一步行动积蓄力量。
Egrag 将这一情况与 2017 年的情况进行了比较，当时 XRP 遵循了几乎相同的模式。他指出，当时 XRP 几乎触及 BMSB，随后在短短四周内飙升 1,500%，目标是 Fib 1.618 水平。
Fibonacci levels are widely used in technical analysis to predict price movements, and in 2017, XRP’s breakout followed this exact pattern. If history repeats itself, Egrag suggests a 1,500% surge to $27.
Javon Marks takes this further, highlighting how XRP’s recent price action mirrors its 2017 breakout. Prices recently tested the all-time high as resistance, just as they did in 2017 before surging beyond it. Marks’ new second target is at $99, an astonishing 3,900% increase from current levels.
$XRP to $99+🪞:The truth is, most of what we have to connect dots with on XRP is its past price performance and man oh man is this breakout and run shaping up extremely similar to 2017.Prices recently met the All Time High, using it as a resistance, just as it did in 2017… https://t.co/gjFsTxYSwG pic.twitter.com/F0wVWE8v0z— JAVONâš¡ï¸MARKS (@JavonTM1) February 7, 2025
Beyond Fibonacci extensions, Elliott Wave theory also points to significant potential for XRP. Dark Defender has been tracking XRP’s wave structure since July 2023, when the price was around 40 to 50 cents.Â
XRP had a 4th Wave on his Intermediate Cycle, which I highlighted in Dark Blue, aiming for $5.85 with the 5th Wave.另一方面，以浅蓝色突出显示的主要周期波仍瞄准 18.22 美元。（非财务建议）我从 7 月 23 日起就一直使用相同的结构……pic.twitter.com/CZXFSRyftb— Dark Defender (@DefendDark) 2025 年 2 月 3 日
根据他的分析，XRP 目前处于中期周期的第 4 波，第 5 波目标为 5.85 美元。他的主要周期波追踪长期走势，表明主要上行目标为 18.22 美元。
“我自 2023 年 7 月以来一直使用相同的结构，我们将其视为北极星，”Dark Defender 解释道，这表明 XRP 一直遵循这种模式。如果他的波浪计数保持不变，XRP 可能即将完成一个主要周期。
However, big breakouts don’t happen in isolation. XRP still faces its biggest resistance zone between $3.15 and $3.50, which requires a major catalyst to break through.
For traders looking to take advantage of this setup, risk management is key. Placing stop-loss orders can help minimize losses in case of rejection, and avoiding over-leveraging is crucial, as sudden pullbacks could lead to liquidation.
However, nothing in the crypto market is guaranteed. The same indicators that suggest explosive upside potential can also fail under changing market conditions. Trade wisely, manage risk, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
2025-02-18 08:06:00
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