Pi Network 币涨到 10 美元？4 种可能实现的催化剂

全球 M2 货币供应量创历史新高 —— 那么比特币为何没有飙升？是出了什么问题，还是延迟突破即将到来？ 目录美联储会议临近，市场紧张不安Rising M2 liquidityQuantitative tightening could be nearing its endLiquidity surge meets institutional uncertainty Markets on edge as the Fed meeting looms 由于经济状况持续动荡，市场在美联储 3 月 18 日至 19 日会议前夕面临越来越多的不确定性。股市跌跌撞撞，通胀持续存在，投资者正在重新评估他们对降息的预期。 除了不可预测性之外，特朗普总统的关税政策和联邦政府裁员引发了人们对整体经济前景的新担忧，给本已脆弱的市场注入了进一步的不稳定。 尽管出现动荡，但市场普遍预计联邦公开市场委员会将维持利率在 4.25-4.5% 不变，芝加哥商品交易所集团 (CME Group) 的 FedWatch 工具显示，不会立即调整利率的可能性为 99%。 然而，真正的焦点在于首次降息的时机。目前的预测显示，6 月份可能会降息，利率降至 4-4.25% 的可能性为 55%。 总体而言，投资者预计 2025 年美联储将累计降息四分之三个百分点，这可能使美联储基准利率降至 3.5-3.75%。 Amid this uncertainty, financial markets have responded sharply. The S&P 500 has dropped more than 8% from its Feb. 19 all-time high, while the Nasdaq plunged 4% on Mar. 10 — its worst trading day since 2022.  与此同时，波动率指数飙升至8月份以来的最高水平，反映出投资者在应对不断变化的政策，尤其是特朗普的关税上调时面临的困难。 比特币 (BTC) 也一直在苦苦寻找立足点，截至 3 月 18 日，价格仍在 82,300 美元左右波动，较 1 月份 109,114 美元的历史高点下跌近 25%。 BTC 价格图表 | 来源：crypto.news 现在的问题是：接下来会发生什么？如果美联储发出政策转变信号，市场将如何反应？这一切对未来几周的加密货币意味着什么？ M2流动性上升 Global liquidity is surging, and history suggests that risk assets like Bitcoin may soon react. As of Mar. 10, global M2 money supply reached an all-time high of $108.2 trillion, marking a 3.5% increase from its 2025 low of $104.5 trillion recorded on Jan. 6. Bitcoin and global M2 growth chart | Source: BGeometrics Yet, in this cycle, Bitcoin’s price action has shown inconsistencies despite the rise in liquidity, raising questions about whether a delayed response is at play. M2 money supply serves as a broad measure of global liquidity, encompassing cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money assets. When M2 expands, liquidity typically finds its way into high-yielding investments, leading to rallies in stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin. Conversely, contractions in M2 often coincide with risk-off periods, where assets struggle to find upside momentum. 密切关注全球流动性的变化——这是推动比特币发展的最重要的长期因素之一。事实上，使用 2013 年至 2024 年的数据，BTC 与全球 M2 的相关性高达 94%。现在你知道为什么这么多人恳求结束量化紧缩政策，甚至恢复量化宽松政策了。pic.twitter.com/E27bkhS5Vx— Nic (@nicrypto) 2025 年 3 月 5 日 仔细查看历史数据，可以发现比特币与 M2 增长之间存在很强的相关性。比特币最显著的牛市发生在流动性快速扩张时期，而 M2 的下滑则发生在价格下跌或长期盘整之前。 However, a key observation is that Bitcoin does not react immediately to liquidity surges. Research suggests an average lag of approximately 10 weeks before Bitcoin fully reflects changes in M2 growth. The above M2 chart further supports this narrative. Bitcoin’s recovery from its 2022-2023 lows coincided with a significant uptick in M2 growth. Similarly, in mid-2024, a renewed expansion in M2 was followed by Bitcoin reaching new highs. However, in early 2025, Bitcoin entered a period of consolidation despite M2 continuing its ascent. The missing ingredient appears to be the rate of change in liquidity rather than its absolute level. 对比特币同比回报相对于 M2 同比变化的更深入分析，可以发现一个更清晰的模式——比特币最强劲的牛市往往出现在流动性增长快速加速时，而不是保持稳定时。 因此，单纯的流动性扩张不足以引发突破——M2 增长加速才是关键因素。 量化紧缩政策可能即将结束 美联储自 2022 年 6 月开始实施的量化紧缩 (QT) 计划可能即将进入最后阶段。 截至 3 月 18 日，Polymarket 上的投注额已超过 620 万美元，交易员认为美联储在 4 月 30 日结束 QT 的可能性为 100%。 At its core, QT is the opposite of quantitative easing (QE). Instead of injecting liquidity into the system by purchasing bonds, the Fed has been allowing assets to mature off its balance sheet, effectively pulling money out of circulation. This policy, alongside aggressive rate hikes, helped curb inflationary pressures but also created liquidity constraints that have weighed on markets. While stocks and crypto assets managed to rally despite QT’s tightening effects, concerns have emerged that continued balance sheet reduction could drain liquidity at a time of rising economic uncertainty. The minutes from the January FOMC meeting revealed that several policymakers were open to either slowing or pausing QT, largely due to uncertainties surrounding the federal debt ceiling and evolving money market conditions, Reuters reported. Analysts note that the Treasury Department’s extraordinary measures to keep government operations funded have been injecting temporary liquidity into the system.  This has made it harder for the Fed to accurately assess true reserve levels, creating a risk that it could withdraw too much liquidity too quickly, increasing financial market volatility. 尽管人们对量化紧缩政策将在近期结束的预期日益高涨，但并非所有分析师都同意这一时间安排。 巴克莱维持量化紧缩政策将在9月至10月之间结束的预测，并认为在3月或5月暂停缩减政策，随后再重启缩减政策是低效的。 与此同时，Wrightson ICAP分析师认为，美联储更有可能减缓资产购买的速度，而不是完全停止，并指出完全停止可能迫使美联储稍后恢复资产购买，从而给政策制定者带来沟通挑战。 其他机构，例如研究公司 LH Meyer 则警告称，量化紧缩政策的任何暂停都有可能导致经济完全停止，因为稍后再恢复这一进程可能会很困难——尤其是在市场状况依然脆弱的情况下。 流动性指标发出的混杂信号使得美联储判断正确停止点的能力变得复杂。 A survey of major banks and money managers conducted before the last policy meeting suggested QT could conclude between June and July. Fed holdings, which have already declined to $6.8 trillion from a peak of $9 trillion in 2022, are expected to fall further to around $6.4 trillion by the end of the process. However, estimates suggest that bank reserves will only dip to $3.125 trillion from the current $3.3 trillion, while the Fed’s reverse repo facility — a measure of excess liquidity — has remained below $100 billion throughout February, indicating that financial conditions may already be tighter than intended. Historically, unwinding QT has been a delicate process, and if the Fed signals a stop in the coming months, it may effectively mark the end of the program. 如果发生这种情况，其影响可能是广泛的——长期利率下降，美元走弱，以及对比特币和股票等风险资产的需求可能增加。 流动性激增遭遇机构不确定性 虽然 M2 货币供应量的增加是比特币牛市的强烈前兆，但链上指标和机构发展表明，短期前景可能尚未与这一趋势一致。 尽管全球 M2 创下历史新高，但比特币的价格走势已显示出疲软迹象。CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 警告称，“每个链上指标都预示着熊市”，指出新的流动性枯竭，新鲸鱼以较低的价格抛售 BTC。 #比特币牛市周期已经结束，预计价格将持续 6-12 个月的看跌或横盘走势。pic.twitter.com/f80bnNhjy4— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 17, 2025 His analysis, which applies Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to various metrics, suggests that Bitcoin’s price may not immediately react to rising liquidity. One of the key metrics is MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), which compares Bitcoin’s market value to the price at which coins last moved, helping to determine whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued. Another critical metric is SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which measures whether Bitcoin holders are selling at a profit or a loss. 此外，NUPL（净未实现利润/损失）根据整个网络的未实现收益和损失来跟踪比特币持有者的整体盈利能力。 根据这些指标，比特币可能正在进入 6 至 12 个月的盘整阶段——这是历史上主要牛市之后出现的模式。 如果这是真的，比特币对流动性增加的反应可能会延迟而不是立即出现，这与之前的周期相似，即流动性扩张需要数月才能转化为看涨的价格行动。 与此同时，制度阻力也在加大。美国最近采用了比特币战略储备，标志着政府对比特币资产的看法发生了重大转变。 然而，这一举措并未受到全球金融机构的欢迎。长期倡导比特币、萨尔瓦多政府比特币高级顾问马克斯·凯泽 (Max Keiser) 指出，国际货币基金组织和信用评级机构已经开始下调美国信用评级，理由是比特币具有“不稳定影响”。 国际货币基金组织（以及各大信用评级机构）以比特币的不稳定影响为由下调了美国的信用评级。他们建议美国立即清算其 BSR（比特币战略储备）。— Max Keiser (@maxkeiser) 2025 年 3 月 17 日 凯泽补充说，国际货币基金组织现在建议立即清算 BSR，这引发了人们对美国比特币持有量可能面临政治压力的担忧。 如果美国政府在这种压力下开始出售其比特币储备，至少在短期内，这可能会带来额外的下行势头。 投资者应保持对短期波动的谨慎态度，同时密切关注流动性趋势和政府行动。比特币未来几个月的走势可能需要耐心等待，才能看到下一个重大走势的形成。 Trade wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

已倒闭的加密货币交易所 Mt. Gox 已将 11,833.6 比特币（价值约 9.31 亿美元）转移到新地址，引发人们对潜在抛售的担忧。 根据 Arkham Intelligence 的链上数据，3 月 11 日发生的比特币转账中，11,501.58 比特币 (BTC)（约合 9.05 亿美元）被转移到一个未知钱包，而 332 BTC（约合 2610 万美元）被转移到一个热钱包。 此前，Mt. Gox 采取了一系列行动，例如 3 月 6 日将价值超过 10 亿美元的比特币转入一个名为“1Mo1n”的钱包。今天的交易就是通过这个钱包进行的，现在这个钱包已被确认为 Mt. Gox 的官方地址。Mt. Gox 仍持有约 35,915 比特币，价值约 28.5 亿美元。 从历史上看，对可能出现的抛售的担忧曾引起市场对涉及 Mt. Gox 的交易做出反应，尽管此类交易的影响力多年来一直在减弱。 虽然今天的转账并未对比特币的价格产生直接影响，但交易员们仍持谨慎态度。由于潜在的债权人还款，市场面临着抛售压力增加的威胁。 你可能还喜欢：分析：比特币自 10.9 万美元的历史高点以来，为何 7 周内下跌了近 30%？ Mt. Gox 在 2014 年破产时损失了 80 多万比特币，此后一直在经历漫长的破产程序。许多债权人仍在等待 BTC 支付，尽管有些债权人已经收到了现金偿还。去年，还款期限延长至 2025 年 10 月 31 日，推迟了潜在的清算事件。 与此同时，比特币的散户情绪已转为看跌，交易员对其七周的下跌做出了反应。根据 Santiment 3 月 11 日的市场分析，社交媒体上关于比特币价格下跌预期的讨论激增，这通常是小投资者投降的迹象。 然而，Santiment 指出，过去市场复苏之前也曾出现过这种情绪变化。比特币目前在过去 24 小时内下跌了 4%，交易价格约为 79,000 美元。 根据 BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 3 月 11 日在 X 上发布的帖子，比特币可能在 70,000 美元附近触底，这与之前的牛市回撤一致。Hayes 表示，央行的行动加上股指的进一步下跌可能会影响比特币的下一次重大走势。 阅读更多：deVere 首席执行官表示，比特币跌破 8 万美元被视为短期挫折

A public debate between cryptocurrency exchange OKX and TRON founder Justin Sun has surfaced over alleged communication issues regarding a freeze notice for stolen funds. OKX CEO Star Xu has challenged Sun’s claims that the exchange failed to respond to law enforcement requests. The controversy began after Sun publicly stated that a “relevant law enforcement agency” had sent a freeze notice regarding stolen funds to OKX’s official email address. However, the police had received no response. Sun claimed he had “no other means of contacting OKX’s compliance team.” You might also like:A look into XRP stability and cloud mining potential OKX CEO claps back at Justin Sun According to Star, the exchange’s LE cooperation team checked the email, including the spam box, and mentioned that they hadn’t received any requests related to this case. He explained via X: “Dear Mr H.E. Justin Sun, our LE cooperation team just checked the email including spam box, we haven’t received any request related with this case. Can you give us the screenshot to show when the enforcement agency send the request to us?” Dear Mr H.E. Justin Sun, our LE cooperation team just checked the email including spam box, we haven’t received any request related with this case. Can you give us the screenshot to show when the enforcement agency send the request to us? @justinsuntron https://t.co/QIPFUbOqbi pic.twitter.com/lkHZWvk6fm— Star (@star_okx) May 3, 2025 Star further clarified OKX’s procedures for law enforcement cooperation and directed Sun to the exchange’s public policy. “OKX has public LE cooperation policy. You can offer some preliminary evidence of the incident through the public reporting channels…we will do a temporary urgent freeze according to the evidence. Then you should work with LE agents to offer us legal documents to continue the freeze,” he added. The OKX CEO also resisted Sun’s public demands. He mentioned that OKX has a consumer protection policy according to law. He insists that they can’t freeze a customer’s funds according to Sun’s personal X post or oral communication. Sun deleted his original tweet, though other users had captured it in screenshots. The deleted post claimed that OKX was not responding to official freeze notices from law enforcement regarding stolen funds. Read more:NFT sales jump 22% to $107m, Pudgy Penguins recover

THORChain 开发人员 Pluto 在阻止与朝鲜黑客相关的交易的投票被推翻后宣布离职。一名验证者还威胁称，除非该协议能够阻止黑客资金流动，否则他将退出。 在最近的一篇文章中，冥王星宣布他将“不再为 THORChain 做出贡献”。然而，核心开发人员表示，只要需要我，他“就会一直为 Nine Realms 服务”，并发誓确保职责顺利交接。 虽然 Pluto 没有具体说明决定退出该协议的原因，但验证者 TCB 引用了开发人员的帖子，并表示如果 THORChain 团队不能“迅速采取解决方案阻止 NK [朝鲜黑客] 流动”，他们也将退出该协议。 此前，TCB 表示，他们是投票停止该协议上的以太坊（ETH）交易的三位验证者之一，以阻止朝鲜黑客组织 Lazarus Group 的资金流动。 2 月 27 日，THORChain 开发人员 Oleg Petrov 证实投票在“几分钟内”被撤销。 就在几天前，冥王星曾告知粉丝，该团队正在积极致力于实施筛查服务，以阻止非法资金通过该协议流动。 一段时间以来一直担任首席开发人员的人将离开@THORChain正如我昨天提到的，如果我们不迅速采取措施阻止朝鲜的外流，我也会面临被淘汰的命运，所以这很可能是我关于 TC 主题的最后一篇文章TC……https://t.co/FUddEn91yu— TCB (@1984_is_today) 2025 年 2 月 27 日 阅读更多：Bybit 洗钱为 THORChain 带来了 29.1 亿美元的交易量和 300 万美元的费用收入 根据 LookOnChain 上的数据，Bybit 黑客一直在使用 THORChain 处理加密货币领域有史以来最大的黑客攻击之一中被盗的资金。2 月 28 日发布的一篇文章表明，Bybit 黑客通过跨链交换协议洗钱总计 270,000 ETH（6.05 亿美元），相当于被盗资金的 54%。 正如 crypto.news 之前报道的那样，Bybit 被盗资金通过该协议流动，使其交易量在短短五天内增至 29.1 亿美元，并产生了 300 万美元的费用收入。截至发稿时，该协议的每日交易量已达到 6.5 亿美元，而 Bybit 被黑客攻击之前的平均每日交易量为 8000 万美元。 THORChain 创始人的回应 THORChain founder John-Paul Thorbjornsen responded to the controversy regarding the reverted vote and the departure of developers on his X account. He stated that he had been the one to recommend nodes to continue trading. I recommended to all the nodes I delegate with to continue trading.I have checked the OFAC/FBI list and none of those addresses have *ever* interacted with TC. I have not been served by any authority, nor aware of any node that has.我将支持我的节点运行静态......https://t.co/zYghRCGkuZ— JP (@jpthor) 2025 年 2 月 28 日 此外，他还声称，外国资产控制办公室和联邦调查局列出的黑客地址都没有与 THORChain 进行过互动，而且他“没有受到任何权威机构的服务，也不知道有任何节点与 THORChain 进行过互动”。 Thorbjornsen 表示：“如果他们觉得合适，我将支持我的节点在 OFAC/FBI 列表上运行静态拒绝列表，但我不会支持非权威第三方在协议级别动态更新列表。” 在另一篇文章中，他说 THORChain“不洗钱”，交易者可以自己追踪以太坊与比特币（BTC）的交换，并了解它们的最终去向。 “They typically go into CEX where they are swapped for fiat. Report the deposits to CEX,” wrote Thorbjornsen. You might also like:受 15 亿美元 Bybit 黑客攻击影响，场外交易面临大规模冻结风险

AI has long been under fire for using the intellectual property of independent creators. Now, Camp Network hopes to solve this issue. ntellectual property has been an ongoing concern with artificial intelligence technology, which Camp Network aims to tackle. On April 29, the project announced it had raised $30 million in a Series A funding round led by 1kx and Blockchain Capital to build a blockchain at the intersection of AI and IP. You might also like:Exclusive: iExec launches $1M RLC fund to back developers in AI, DePIN, RWA and more How Camp Network bridges AI and IP The goal of the project is to address the key issue of intellectual property in an age where AI relies heavily on vast amounts of user-generated data. Camp Network will enable users to register content, including art, music, and more, with clear usage rights. “Camp Network exists to solve the missing link between IP and AI. In a world where AI will generate the majority of content, provenance is no longer a feature — it’s the necessary foundation for making ownership and value enforceable by design,” James Chi, Co-Founder of Camp Network. You might also like:Bradley Tusk: U.S. leads in AI innovation, China leads in cheap production Once the data is on-chain, AI developers can use it to train their agents. However, before utilizing the data, developers must agree to the usage rights, including royalties, which are embedded within smart contracts. At that point, whenever an AI agent uses the data, the blockchain automatically calculates royalties and executes payments to creators. The entire process happens on-chain, with tokens deposited directly into the creator’s wallets. “The team behind Camp Network has a compelling opportunity to build the onchain equivalent of Hollywood — pioneering a new category of mass-market entertainment applications in crypto,” Peter Pan, Partner at 1kx.  1kx was one of the early backers of Celestia, while Blockchain Capital is one of the oldest VCs focused on crypto. Other investors in Camp Network include dao5, Lattice, Maven 11, Hypersphere, and OKX. You might also like:Bitcoin miners may find better returns in AI than crypto, Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital suggests