108 万亿美元的全球流动性激增应该会让比特币飞向月球——那么为什么事实并非如此呢？
全球 M2 货币供应量创历史新高 —— 那么比特币为何没有飙升？是出了什么问题，还是延迟突破即将到来？
目录美联储会议临近，市场紧张不安Rising M2 liquidityQuantitative tightening could be nearing its endLiquidity surge meets institutional uncertainty
Markets on edge as the Fed meeting looms
由于经济状况持续动荡，市场在美联储 3 月 18 日至 19 日会议前夕面临越来越多的不确定性。股市跌跌撞撞，通胀持续存在，投资者正在重新评估他们对降息的预期。
除了不可预测性之外，特朗普总统的关税政策和联邦政府裁员引发了人们对整体经济前景的新担忧，给本已脆弱的市场注入了进一步的不稳定。
尽管出现动荡，但市场普遍预计联邦公开市场委员会将维持利率在 4.25-4.5% 不变，芝加哥商品交易所集团 (CME Group) 的 FedWatch 工具显示，不会立即调整利率的可能性为 99%。
然而，真正的焦点在于首次降息的时机。目前的预测显示，6 月份可能会降息，利率降至 4-4.25% 的可能性为 55%。
总体而言，投资者预计 2025 年美联储将累计降息四分之三个百分点，这可能使美联储基准利率降至 3.5-3.75%。
Amid this uncertainty, financial markets have responded sharply. The S&P 500 has dropped more than 8% from its Feb. 19 all-time high, while the Nasdaq plunged 4% on Mar. 10 — its worst trading day since 2022.Â
与此同时，波动率指数飙升至8月份以来的最高水平，反映出投资者在应对不断变化的政策，尤其是特朗普的关税上调时面临的困难。
比特币 (BTC) 也一直在苦苦寻找立足点，截至 3 月 18 日，价格仍在 82,300 美元左右波动，较 1 月份 109,114 美元的历史高点下跌近 25%。
BTC 价格图表 | 来源：crypto.news
现在的问题是：接下来会发生什么？如果美联储发出政策转变信号，市场将如何反应？这一切对未来几周的加密货币意味着什么？
M2流动性上升
Global liquidity is surging, and history suggests that risk assets like Bitcoin may soon react. As of Mar. 10, global M2 money supply reached an all-time high of $108.2 trillion, marking a 3.5% increase from its 2025 low of $104.5 trillion recorded on Jan. 6.
Bitcoin and global M2 growth chart | Source: BGeometrics
Yet, in this cycle, Bitcoin’s price action has shown inconsistencies despite the rise in liquidity, raising questions about whether a delayed response is at play.
M2 money supply serves as a broad measure of global liquidity, encompassing cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money assets.
When M2 expands, liquidity typically finds its way into high-yielding investments, leading to rallies in stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin. Conversely, contractions in M2 often coincide with risk-off periods, where assets struggle to find upside momentum.
密切关注全球流动性的变化——这是推动比特币发展的最重要的长期因素之一。事实上，使用 2013 年至 2024 年的数据，BTC 与全球 M2 的相关性高达 94%。现在你知道为什么这么多人恳求结束量化紧缩政策，甚至恢复量化宽松政策了。pic.twitter.com/E27bkhS5Vx— Nic (@nicrypto) 2025 年 3 月 5 日
仔细查看历史数据，可以发现比特币与 M2 增长之间存在很强的相关性。比特币最显著的牛市发生在流动性快速扩张时期，而 M2 的下滑则发生在价格下跌或长期盘整之前。
However, a key observation is that Bitcoin does not react immediately to liquidity surges. Research suggests an average lag of approximately 10 weeks before Bitcoin fully reflects changes in M2 growth.
The above M2 chart further supports this narrative. Bitcoin’s recovery from its 2022-2023 lows coincided with a significant uptick in M2 growth. Similarly, in mid-2024, a renewed expansion in M2 was followed by Bitcoin reaching new highs.
However, in early 2025, Bitcoin entered a period of consolidation despite M2 continuing its ascent. The missing ingredient appears to be the rate of change in liquidity rather than its absolute level.
对比特币同比回报相对于 M2 同比变化的更深入分析，可以发现一个更清晰的模式——比特币最强劲的牛市往往出现在流动性增长快速加速时，而不是保持稳定时。
因此，单纯的流动性扩张不足以引发突破——M2 增长加速才是关键因素。
量化紧缩政策可能即将结束
美联储自 2022 年 6 月开始实施的量化紧缩 (QT) 计划可能即将进入最后阶段。
截至 3 月 18 日，Polymarket 上的投注额已超过 620 万美元，交易员认为美联储在 4 月 30 日结束 QT 的可能性为 100%。
At its core, QT is the opposite of quantitative easing (QE). Instead of injecting liquidity into the system by purchasing bonds, the Fed has been allowing assets to mature off its balance sheet, effectively pulling money out of circulation.
This policy, alongside aggressive rate hikes, helped curb inflationary pressures but also created liquidity constraints that have weighed on markets. While stocks and crypto assets managed to rally despite QT’s tightening effects, concerns have emerged that continued balance sheet reduction could drain liquidity at a time of rising economic uncertainty.
The minutes from the January FOMC meeting revealed that several policymakers were open to either slowing or pausing QT, largely due to uncertainties surrounding the federal debt ceiling and evolving money market conditions, Reuters reported.
Analysts note that the Treasury Department’s extraordinary measures to keep government operations funded have been injecting temporary liquidity into the system.Â
This has made it harder for the Fed to accurately assess true reserve levels, creating a risk that it could withdraw too much liquidity too quickly, increasing financial market volatility.
尽管人们对量化紧缩政策将在近期结束的预期日益高涨，但并非所有分析师都同意这一时间安排。
巴克莱维持量化紧缩政策将在9月至10月之间结束的预测，并认为在3月或5月暂停缩减政策，随后再重启缩减政策是低效的。
与此同时，Wrightson ICAP分析师认为，美联储更有可能减缓资产购买的速度，而不是完全停止，并指出完全停止可能迫使美联储稍后恢复资产购买，从而给政策制定者带来沟通挑战。
其他机构，例如研究公司 LH Meyer 则警告称，量化紧缩政策的任何暂停都有可能导致经济完全停止，因为稍后再恢复这一进程可能会很困难——尤其是在市场状况依然脆弱的情况下。
流动性指标发出的混杂信号使得美联储判断正确停止点的能力变得复杂。
A survey of major banks and money managers conducted before the last policy meeting suggested QT could conclude between June and July.
Fed holdings, which have already declined to $6.8 trillion from a peak of $9 trillion in 2022, are expected to fall further to around $6.4 trillion by the end of the process.
However, estimates suggest that bank reserves will only dip to $3.125 trillion from the current $3.3 trillion, while the Fed’s reverse repo facility — a measure of excess liquidity — has remained below $100 billion throughout February, indicating that financial conditions may already be tighter than intended.
Historically, unwinding QT has been a delicate process, and if the Fed signals a stop in the coming months, it may effectively mark the end of the program.
如果发生这种情况，其影响可能是广泛的——长期利率下降，美元走弱，以及对比特币和股票等风险资产的需求可能增加。
流动性激增遭遇机构不确定性
虽然 M2 货币供应量的增加是比特币牛市的强烈前兆，但链上指标和机构发展表明，短期前景可能尚未与这一趋势一致。
尽管全球 M2 创下历史新高，但比特币的价格走势已显示出疲软迹象。CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 警告称，“每个链上指标都预示着熊市”，指出新的流动性枯竭，新鲸鱼以较低的价格抛售 BTC。
#比特币牛市周期已经结束，预计价格将持续 6-12 个月的看跌或横盘走势。pic.twitter.com/f80bnNhjy4— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 17, 2025
His analysis, which applies Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to various metrics, suggests that Bitcoin’s price may not immediately react to rising liquidity.
One of the key metrics is MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), which compares Bitcoin’s market value to the price at which coins last moved, helping to determine whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued.
Another critical metric is SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which measures whether Bitcoin holders are selling at a profit or a loss.
此外，NUPL（净未实现利润/损失）根据整个网络的未实现收益和损失来跟踪比特币持有者的整体盈利能力。
根据这些指标，比特币可能正在进入 6 至 12 个月的盘整阶段——这是历史上主要牛市之后出现的模式。
如果这是真的，比特币对流动性增加的反应可能会延迟而不是立即出现，这与之前的周期相似，即流动性扩张需要数月才能转化为看涨的价格行动。
与此同时，制度阻力也在加大。美国最近采用了比特币战略储备，标志着政府对比特币资产的看法发生了重大转变。
然而，这一举措并未受到全球金融机构的欢迎。长期倡导比特币、萨尔瓦多政府比特币高级顾问马克斯·凯泽 (Max Keiser) 指出，国际货币基金组织和信用评级机构已经开始下调美国信用评级，理由是比特币具有“不稳定影响”。
国际货币基金组织（以及各大信用评级机构）以比特币的不稳定影响为由下调了美国的信用评级。他们建议美国立即清算其 BSR（比特币战略储备）。— Max Keiser (@maxkeiser) 2025 年 3 月 17 日
凯泽补充说，国际货币基金组织现在建议立即清算 BSR，这引发了人们对美国比特币持有量可能面临政治压力的担忧。
如果美国政府在这种压力下开始出售其比特币储备，至少在短期内，这可能会带来额外的下行势头。
投资者应保持对短期波动的谨慎态度，同时密切关注流动性趋势和政府行动。比特币未来几个月的走势可能需要耐心等待，才能看到下一个重大走势的形成。
Trade wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
2025-03-20 01:59:31
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