加密市场对特朗普解放日做出反应

在 4 月 1 日短暂回升之后，比特币和主要山寨币在解放日之前再次开始下跌。

The market started the week on a stronger note, bouncing back as traders welcomed signs that U.S. President Trump had finally landed on a trade strategy after weeks of unpredictable tariff threats. His back-and-forth stance on major trading partners had kept investors on edge, so even a hint of clarity brought some relief.

Ethereum, Dogecoin, and Solana joined Bitcoin (BTC), which rallied more than 3.3% on Tuesday, in the broader market recovery. Ethereum (ETH) climbed to around $1,917, up 4% on the day. Dogecoin (DOGE) touched just over $0.17, a 3% rise, while Cardano (ADA) ticked up 2.5%. Still, the momentum fizzled out quickly as underlying concerns came back into focus.

However, with Trump’s reciprocal tariffs set to be introduced today, market anxiety has resurfaced.

At press time, BTC had fallen 1.36% from its April 1 high of $85,413. Major altcoins like ETH, XRP (XRP), SOL, and DOGE have been hit harder, seeing losses ranging between 3-5%. 

由于避险情绪盛行，全球市值下跌 2.1% 至 2.85 万亿美元。包括标准普尔 500 指数和罗素 2000 指数在内的传统市场在过去一周也出现下跌，而 Nvidia、亚马逊和特斯拉等主要科技股同期下跌了 5-7%。

分析师目前对市场下一步行动存在分歧。

历史会重演吗？

According to crypto analyst Ash Crypto, the last major tariff standoff in 2019 saw the Nasdaq sink 12% while Bitcoin surged nearly 70% as investors looked for safety outside traditional markets.

BTC jumped from under $6,000 to almost $13,800 in just a few months, while gold also saw a similar safe-haven inflow.

That move, the analyst explained, wasn’t driven by fear alone—it was also fuelled by the Federal Reserve implementing three rate cuts that year, “flooding the market with cheap money,” which helped lift both stocks and crypto later in the cycle. Essentially, traders were bracing for the worst but also banking on central banks to soften the blow.

Fast forward to 2025, and while the setup feels familiar, the analyst pointed out a few key differences. 

According to the analyst, inflation is already running hot, which limits the Fed’s ability to maneuver. Unlike 2019, they might not be able to cut rates aggressively this time around. That means risk assets, including crypto, may not have the same cushion if markets start to wobble.

Still, Ash Crypto suggests that Bitcoin could decouple from equities again, especially if trade tensions escalate further. However, he cautioned that if China retaliates with its own set of tariffs or if inflation continues to rise, the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts, potentially triggering renewed volatility across both crypto and traditional markets.

专家们意见不一

前 BitMEX 首席执行官 Arthur Hayes 认为，比特币实际上可以在当前环境下蓬勃发展。在他看来，关税不会阻止比特币的发展；事实上，关税可能会加速比特币的下一步大动作。

海耶斯认为，如果经济因为进口成本上升而放缓，美联储将被迫采取流动性措施，就像过去的危机中所做的那样。

海耶斯预测，如果美联储放松货币政策以应对经济增长放缓，黄金价格可能升至 11 万美元。他还指出，如果关税超过 50%，黄金涨势可能会进一步加强，而去中心化资产需求的上升将推动黄金价格上涨。

然而，像彼得·希夫这样的批评者并不相信这种乐观的说法。这位长期对比特币持怀疑态度的人认为，解放日最终可能会暴露加密货币的内在脆弱性，尤其是如果新关税引发经济混乱的话。在这种情况下，希夫预测比特币可能会跌破 50,000 美元。

He’s also dismissive of the optimism around Trump’s pro-crypto stance, saying it won’t matter much if inflation spikes and global growth takes a hit. In his view, traditional safe havens like gold and bonds are far more likely to outperform speculative assets like Bitcoin if things get rough.

Market analyst Alex Kruger has also warned that a hardline tariff policy unveiled on Liberation Day could trigger a 10-15% crash in the crypto market within days. See below: