The unexpected rise in Bitcoinâs institutional adoption through exchange-traded funds has transformed crypto cycles, analysts say.
While spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds have made BTC more stable by turning it into an asset class that institutions can invest in, altcoins still face the same high. In a recent research report, analysts at a Singapore-based firm Signum Capital revealed that the shift signals a big transition from the marketâs traditional four-year cycles tied to Bitcoinâs halving events.
分析师表示,受流动性流动、投资者持仓和风险情绪变化的推动,市场现在经历着“更短暂的优异和不佳表现”。
“虽然比特币的价格正在逐渐稳定,但山寨币的波动性仍然像以往一样,仍然受到兴奋和恐慌的反射性循环的影响。”
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Analysts point to recent market movements as evidence of the shift, citing a significant downturn in August 2024 that impacted both stocks and cryptocurrencies. That drop followed the Bank of Japanâs unexpected rate hike, which analysts say sparked âwidespread market volatility,â with the unwinding of the yen carry trade âputting downward pressure on equities and crypto alike.â
âThe idea of fixed four-year crypto cycles may no longer hold true. Instead, we are seeing shorter, more fragmented periods of outperformance, driven by macro shifts, regulatory changes, and fast-moving narratives.â
Signum Capital
Despite the volatility, experts emphasize the importance of staying informed and adaptable in todayâs crypto environment, with analysts noting that rather than logging off during downturns, those who track emerging narratives âwill be best positioned.â
Earlier in March, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju predicted that in the next six to 12 months, Bitcoin will see âbearish or sideways price action.â To support his conclusion, Ju noted in another X post that âevery on-chain metric signals a bear market,â adding that âwith fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices.â