特朗普贸易战卷土重来，加密货币市场惨淡经营——情况还能糟糕到什么程度？
特朗普的最新关税已经出台，加密货币市场正在崩溃。这次经济冲击是否会让比特币再次陷入自由落体，还是最糟糕的时期已经过去了？
Table of ContentsTrump doubles down on tariffsHow trade tariffs could set off a chain reaction in crypto散户和机构投资者如何应对加密货币将走向何方？
特朗普加倍征收关税
全球金融市场再次陷入动荡，美国总统唐纳德特朗普的最新关税声明给股票、大宗商品和加密货币带来了冲击。
2 月 27 日，美国总统宣布对中国商品征收 10% 的新关税（在现有的 10% 关税基础上），同时还将对来自加拿大和墨西哥的进口产品征收 25% 的关税。投资者迅速作出反应，这些措施加剧了市场的不确定性，令投资者陷入恐慌。
The crypto market, already under stress, has experienced a sharp decline. As of Feb. 28, the total market cap has dropped over 8% in the last 24 hours, now sitting at $2.64 trillion—down more than 25% from its $3.52 trillion peak at the start of the month.
Total crypto market cap chart | Source: TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC), the market leader, has also suffered one of its steepest drops in months, plunging nearly 8% to trade around $80,000. At its lowest point, BTC touched $78,200 before staging a modest recovery.
BTC 6-months price chart | Source: crypto.news
山寨币的表现更糟，由于交易员纷纷套现，许多山寨币都出现了两位数的损失。例如，以太坊 (ETH) 已下跌近 10%，目前徘徊在 2,150 美元左右。
此次大幅下跌是继 2 月 3 日的关税恐慌浪潮之后发生的，当时的恐慌引发了类似的抛售。不过，外交谈判暂时缓解了市场压力。
墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆确保暂停这些措施 30 天，以便继续进行边境安全谈判，特别是关于美国对毒品贩运的担忧。
加拿大总理贾斯汀·特鲁多随后也采取了同样的举措。特朗普很快确认，由于两国都在努力解决这些问题，关税将推迟实施。
但这种宽慰是短暂的。特朗普在“真相社会”上的最新言论表明他仍然不满意，指责墨西哥和加拿大未能遏制芬太尼流入美国。
With the Mar. 4 deadline fast approaching, tensions are once again at a boiling point, and the tariff pause may soon be lifted.
For the crypto market, this comes at an especially fragile moment. Unlike in previous cycles, where Bitcoin and other digital assets traded largely in isolation from traditional markets, the past year has seen a growing correlation with broader macroeconomic forces.Â
What happens next? If these tariffs are implemented, how deep could the next market shock run? And with the crypto market already on edge, could we see another major shake-up in the coming days? Let’s break it down.
贸易关税如何引发加密货币的连锁反应
贸易战很少是孤立事件。它们会波及整个金融市场，改变流动性，重塑通胀预期，并迫使各国央行重新调整政策。
如果特朗普继续对墨西哥和加拿大征收关税，同时对中国征收 10% 的额外关税，其结果可能会引发全面的通胀冲击，使美联储陷入困境，并可能加剧加密货币市场的抛售。
核心问题是关税相当于对进口商品征税。当企业面临外国产品成本上涨时，他们不会吸收损失——而是将其转嫁给消费者。这导致从电子产品到食品等日常用品价格飙升，加剧通货膨胀。
美国通胀率已高于美联储2%的目标，1月份徘徊在3%左右，额外关税的出台可能会使通胀率进一步上升，迫使美联储重新考虑降息立场。
Here’s where the crypto market comes into play. Bitcoin and digital assets have historically thrived in low-rate environments when excess liquidity drives speculative investments. Increased inflation or dried-up liquidity could trigger market shocks.Â
Moreover, since mid-2023, Bitcoin has been trading more like a risk asset than an inflation hedge, with its correlation to the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 reaching record highs.Â
When stock markets tumble during periods of uncertainty, the cascading effects could dampen crypto momentum.
随着贸易关税导致通胀上升以及美联储选择加息，交易员纷纷涌向美元，流动性可能进一步收紧。
美元通常被视为“风险最小的资产”，近期美元兑加元升至2003年以来的最高水平，反映出资本逃离投机资产的普遍趋势。
我们已经看到了流动性枯竭时的预兆。2 月份的闪电崩盘在短短 60 小时内就抹去了近 7600 亿美元，比特币与其他风险资产同步暴跌。
如果贸易紧张局势引发另一层通胀压力，我们可能会看到类似的情况发生，投资者纷纷涌向安全的美元、黄金和其他防御性资产，而比特币则可能再次大幅下跌。
散户和机构投资者如何应对
The market’s reaction to tariffs wouldn’t just hinge on inflation; it would also be driven by sentiment and positioning. Right now, Bitcoin ETFs play a crucial role in capital flows within the crypto market, and their behavior indicates that investors are already on edge.
自特朗普当选以来，比特币 ETF 的资金流入量创下了历史新高，仅 48 小时内就流入了 20 亿美元。但这种势头已经发生了变化。
截至 2 月 27 日，资金流出已连续八个交易日占据主导地位，总额达 30 亿美元，其中 2 月 25 日单日流出金额达 10 亿美元，创历史新高。
这种模式表明，占市场很大一部分的散户交易者正在成群结队，在波动性飙升时集体退出。这里的危险在于，关税可能会引发新的恐慌。
如果通胀上升，且美联储暗示将推迟降息，我们可能会看到更深的 ETF 资金外流，从而在市场中形成“空洞”，导致比特币价格出现突然和极端的波动。
与此同时，一直通过 ETF 增加比特币投资的机构投资者可能开始重新考虑他们的配置。
Hedge funds and asset managers entered the crypto space expecting long-term gains, but they remain sensitive to macroeconomic conditions.Â
If the cost of capital stays high due to prolonged Fed tightening, risk-adjusted returns for Bitcoin may start looking less attractive compared to other investments.
Hence, a sustained shift in institutional sentiment could accelerate Bitcoin’s decline, reinforcing a cycle of volatility.
Moreover, what’s different this time is the scale of the crypto market. During the last major trade war between the U.S. and China in 2018, the total crypto market was valued at around $300 billion.Â
如今，其价值已超过当时的十倍，机构参与度和全球金融流动程度也大大提升。这意味着任何宏观驱动的冲击——无论是关税、通胀飙升还是加息——都有可能引发比以往更广泛的混乱。
加密货币将走向何方？
加密货币市场正处于十字路口，陷入短期恐慌和长期定位之间。随着比特币从高点暴跌 26%，恐惧和贪婪指数达到卢纳崩盘期间的水平，市场情绪极度悲观。
分析师们意见不一，但他们的评估都有一个共同点：本轮经济衰退可能不会持续太久。
例如，亚瑟·海耶斯预测，未来将出现另一次大幅下跌。他警告称，市场正在创下新低，在稳定之前可能会出现“又一次跌破 8 万美元的猛烈波动”。
We are making lower lows in this current wave. I was tempted to add risk this morning, but looking at this price action I think we have one more violent wave down below $80k, most likely over the weekend, then crickets for a while. Hold on to your butts! pic.twitter.com/e6nshZejAb— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) 2025 年 2 月 28 日
不过，他也暗示接下来将会出现一段较为平静的时期，这意味着一旦这场震荡结束，市场可能会进入一个相对平静的阶段。
Global Macro Investor 宏观研究主管 Julien Bittel 采取了更结构化的方法。他认为，包括比特币下跌在内的整个市场低迷都是去年年底金融环境收紧的直接后果。
目前市场上有很多噪音——到处都有相互矛盾的说法。但现实情况是这样的 — — 或者至少是我对实际情况的看法是这样的：Everything happening in markets right now, especially in crypto, is a direct consequence of the tightening of financial… pic.twitter.com/iLPqiyw3LX— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) February 28, 2025
Yet, Bittel sees this cycle already reversing. “Financial conditions have been easing rapidly over the past two months,†he points out, citing falling bond yields, a weaker dollar, and lower oil prices as early signs that the tide is turning.Â
目前比特币的 RSI 为 23（自 2023 年 8 月以来的最大超卖水平），Bittel 建议那些仍然倾向于看跌的人“不要太放心”。
技术分析师也发现了潜在的拐点。Edward Morra 指出，比特币即将完成去年 CME 的一个关键突破缺口。
$BTC我们几乎填补了去年 CME 的突破空白。我知道市场看起来绝对崩溃了，但这实际上是个好消息，我们现在有一个缺口需要填补（约 93,000 美元），所以我认为反弹相当接近。Remember, gaps are not 100% hit rate but v high (9/10 gaps fill). pic.twitter.com/qBdM7iGxJN— Edward Morra (@edwardmorra_btc) February 28, 2025
While the market “looks absolutely wrecked,†he argues that this is actually setting up for a strong bounce. According to Morra’s data, nearly 90% of these gaps eventually get filled, which would suggest a move back toward the $93,000 range.
Meanwhile, Michaël van de Poppe focuses on sentiment, pointing out that fear has reached extreme levels at a time when the U.S. government is more pro-crypto than ever.Â
#Bitcoin is down 25%.#Crypto 恐惧与贪婪指数达到 10。恐惧和贪婪指数与月球崩塌期间一样低。美国政府大力支持加密货币。我想说这种情况将在未来 1-2 周内迅速逆转，并且底部即将出现。— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) 2025 年 2 月 27 日
“I would say this is going to reverse quickly,†he predicts, estimating that the bottom is likely just “one to two weeks away.â€
While the market may be oversold, that doesn’t mean it can’t go lower. Though some signs point to a potential bounce, the broader picture remains uncertain.Â
If liquidity continues to improve and inflation stays under control, a recovery could be on the horizon. However, if macro conditions worsen, this could be just another stop on the way down.
For now, traders should remain cautious. Fear may be a contrarian signal, but blindly assuming a reversal could be just as risky. The golden rule remains: trade wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
2025-02-28 23:47:03
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