Lazarus 感染了数百名软件开发人员，目标是 Solana 和 Exodus 加密钱包

Has Bitcoin price prediction turned a corner, with real on-chain movement toward $175,000 — or are we skipping steps by already entertaining BlackRock’s $700,000 thesis? Table of ContentsBTC nears $98K as bullish momentum reignitesEconomy cools down, BTC heats upBitcoin’s bull case builds2025 Bitcoin price predictions: breakout or blowoff top? BTC nears $98K as bullish momentum reignites After weeks of sideways movement, Bitcoin (BTC) nearly touched $98,000 on May 2, reaching a high of $97,905. As of this writing, BTC is trading around $97,650, slightly below its peak but still holding most of its recent gains. BTC price chart | Source: crypto.news From a historical standpoint, Bitcoin has recovered more than 24% from its February low of $78,200 and more than 30% from the early April dip near $75,000. The rally places Bitcoin at its highest level in over two months and points to a potential reversal of the decline triggered by February’s macroeconomic turbulence.  Much of that weakness had stemmed from policy-related jitters, particularly after President Trump’s trade-centric statements unsettled parts of the market. One key development supporting the rebound is aggressive buying by treasury-focused companies. In the U.S., Strategy added to its Bitcoin reserves on Apr. 28 with a fresh purchase worth $1.4 billion. According to its latest press release, the firm now holds 553,555 BTC, acquired at a total cost of $37.90 billion with an average purchase price of around $68,459 per coin. With Bitcoin now trading near $97,000, Strategy’s holdings are comfortably in profit, translating to a year-to-date unrealized gain of roughly $5.8 billion. Meanwhile in Asia, Japanese firm Metaplanet is quietly building its own treasury strategy, modeled loosely on companies like Strategy. On May 2, the company issued another ¥3.6 billion in bonds, which is roughly $23 million in U.S. dollar terms. This was its 12th bond issuance, and the capital is being used to expand its Bitcoin holdings. Metaplanet has already surpassed the 5,000 BTC mark and has publicly stated that it aims to reach 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025. Amid all this, it is time to examine what is happening with BTC, how experts are interpreting this move, and where Bitcoin price prediction stands now. Economy cools down, BTC heats up The recent economic data paints a picture of deceleration rather than expansion. The ADP jobs report for April showed that only 62,000 private sector jobs were added, missing expectations of 108,000 and falling well below March’s 147,000 print, marking the weakest monthly gain since July 2024 and adding to concerns that the labor market may be cooling. Alongside the employment miss came an unexpected contraction in GDP. The first official estimate for Q1 2025 showed GDP shrinking by 0.3%, against expectations for a modest 0.2% increase. Much of this decline is tied to a sharp rise in imports early in the year, as businesses rushed to front-load inventories ahead of President Trump’s tariff implementation. Basic economics suggests that when imports rise and exports do not increase proportionally, the net effect is negative for GDP, and that is exactly what played out. The imbalance alone shaved off nearly 5% from overall growth, compounding the impact of a decline in government spending, another rare drag not seen since 2022. Meanwhile, inflation appears more persistent than forecast. The Core PCE price index, embedded within the GDP data, rose by 3.5% year-on-year, higher than the 3.1% that was expected, complicating the outlook for interest rate adjustments and potentially extending the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance. In parallel, commodity and crypto markets are showing divergent responses to these macro signals. Gold, which had rallied above $3,500 per ounce by Apr. 21 in response to the new tariffs and broader geopolitical tension, has since retraced by nearly 10%, now trading around $3,200. Bitcoin, in contrast, is gradually building momentum. At the time gold topped out, BTC was still trading around $87,000, and since then, it has gained sustainably, climbing to a two-month high. The shift in capital away from gold and into Bitcoin may not be accidental, as investors often look for alternative stores of value when traditional safe havens start to lose steam, and Bitcoin’s fixed supply and rising institutional demand appear to be supporting that role. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a central force in this trend. Since Apr. 21, these products have recorded inflows in eight of the last nine trading days, with cumulative net additions totaling over $4.16 billion. Nearly half of these inflows came in just two days, Apr. 22 and 23, suggesting that demand is not only steady but also surging. However, with rising prices also comes the potential for selling. On-chain data from Glassnode shows that many long-term holders are now sitting on over 350% in unrealized gains. If Bitcoin continues to climb, some of these holders may decide to lock in profits, and additionally, a concentration of coins sits near current spot prices, which may serve as resistance if enough investors choose to exit at break-even points. Bitcoin’s bull case builds Crypto and financial analysts are now aligning that Bitcoin is showing strength, but whether that strength holds depends on how it behaves around specific price zones and how market participants react to growing profit margins. Robert Breedlove, a long-term Bitcoin thinker and founder of the What is Money podcast, pointed to the cost of production as a reliable foundation for identifying cycle lows. I don’t normally speculate on short-term #Bitcoin price action — but some friends of mine have provided some fascinating perspectives that I want to share.🧵 👇Bitcoin is up 25% from its April 9th low and there’s a handful of indicators that show a major bull market around the… pic.twitter.com/IIHGyDGzES— Robert ₿reedlove (@Breedlove22) May 1, 2025 Citing research from Blockware, he explained that the industry-wide average cost to mine Bitcoin has historically aligned with key bottoms. These include moments such as March 2020 and December 2018.  Bitcoin has now moved above that cost level again. When Bitcoin trades well above production cost, miners are more likely to hold rather than sell, which can reduce short-term supply pressure and create a more bullish environment. Meanwhile, PlanB, known for creating the stock-to-flow model, highlighted a different signal. He noted that Bitcoin’s current price has moved above its 2-year and 5-month realized prices. Realized price up2-year realized price up5-month realized price upBitcoin price higher than all realized pricesBull market continues🚀 pic.twitter.com/dGzWWiKdfA— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) May 1, 2025 Realized price represents the average value of all coins based on when they were last moved. When the market trades above those levels, it usually reflects strength. In his words, all realized prices are now below Bitcoin’s current level, which suggests the uptrend remains intact. Historically, this structure has only formed during active bull phases, especially when short-term holders begin to re-enter. Technical analyst Rekt Capital offered a more detailed roadmap. His view is that if Bitcoin follows the same path it did in late 2024, it may first reject around $99,000, hold support at $93,500, break through the $97,000 to $99,000 range, and only then approach the $104,500 zone. #BTCThis idea was first explored in mid-October 2024 and actually ended up playing outIt would be poetry if Bitcoin repeated history and followed through on the same path in this current Range as wellFor history to repeat, BTC would need to:• Reject from $99k• Hold… https://t.co/1kdRzg0wRg pic.twitter.com/5h0GmEgTfq— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) May 1, 2025 If that holds, the structure could support a run toward new highs. His view is about observing whether Bitcoin holds key support after testing resistance. If any of these levels fail to hold, that would signal a shift back into range-bound behavior rather than breakout territory. Tomas, a markets analyst who studies long-term patterns across risk assets, brought attention to recent price behavior in broader financial markets. 🤔 'Long lower wicks' everywhere – it looks bullish, but is it actually bullish historically?April has been a crazy and historic month in markets.We've had a huge tariff shock, followed by a gradual tariff walk back.So, we've been left with some tasty looking monthly… pic.twitter.com/HyddPd7Dgu— Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) April 30, 2025 He focused on the S&P 500’s monthly chart, which showed a 14% lower wick in April. A long lower wick means prices dropped during the month but were quickly bought back up. He noted that while such candles often suggest bullish pressure, historical data tells a mixed story. Out of 11 similar wick formations since 1950, only 5 marked the actual low, while the rest were followed by further declines, sometimes by as much as 20%. The implication is that sharp rebounds do not guarantee that the correction is over, and they may simply indicate a short-term reset in sentiment. Taken together, the analysis shows that Bitcoin’s fundamentals are strengthening, but price structure still matters. Key support and resistance levels remain in play. 2025 Bitcoin price predictions: breakout or blowoff top? According to CryptoQuant’s rally tracker, Bitcoin is sitting at the edge of a possible breakout. The current ratio, a combination of NUPL and MVRV metrics, stands at roughly 0.8, a level that has historically marked the start of previous rallies. Bitcoin is warming up: Three scenarios that could shape the next rally“As of today, the on-chain momentum is in the 'start' rally zone (Ratio ≈ 0.8 / 80%). Let's examine three scenarios for the next six months:1. Optimistic (Bull)If the Ratio breaks through 1.0 and holds… pic.twitter.com/SlWx2UGg27— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 1, 2025 If that ratio climbs above 1.0 and stays there, the firm expects BTC to move toward the $150,000 to $175,000 range, tracking similar momentum bursts seen in 2017 and 2021. If it stalls between 0.8 and 1.0, Bitcoin may hover within a broader band of $90,000 to $110,000. A drop below 0.75, however, could invite another round of profit-taking from short-term holders, pulling the price back toward $70,000 to $85,000. That’s the less likely case, but not off the table. Meanwhile, the 2025 BTC price predictions are anything but aligned. The lowest among major forecasts comes from 10x Research, which pegs a top near $122,000, driven mainly by technicals and momentum cycles. 2025 Bitcoin price predictions have been rolling in—and they’re staggering.Not from influencers, but from banks, hedge funds, and asset allocators.I take these with a fine grain of salt, but interesting nonetheless.Here’s what they’re projecting—and why: 🧵 pic.twitter.com/yte1LhjZmI— Alec Bakhouche (@Alec_Bitcoin) May 1, 2025 At the other end is BlackRock’s scenario: $700,000, a figure that hinges on a hypothetical where just 2% to 5% of global institutional portfolios allocate to Bitcoin. Between those poles are a cluster of targets that fall in the $180,000 to $285,000 range. Standard Chartered expects $200,000, citing macro hedging behavior and growing institutional flows. H.C. Wainwright places its bet at $225,000, focused on the post-halving supply crunch combined with a clearer regulatory environment. Quant-driven outlooks, like the one from 21st Capital, offer a broader band of $135,000 to $285,000 based on modeled volatility and historical cycle markers. Tom Lee of Fundstrat and Anthony Pompliano both expect Bitcoin to reach $250,000, but for different reasons. Lee ties his forecast to liquidity expansion, while Pompliano sees it as a response to a structural demand shock as capital looks for stores of value outside traditional systems. What stands out is that no forecast assumes a return to the previous cycle structure. Bitcoin is now shaped by factors that did not exist in past cycles, including ETF inflows, treasury strategies from listed firms, and a changing macro backdrop. As things stand, a sustained move above $100,000 will likely require fresh capital and continued buying from new entrants. At the same time, long-term holders are sitting on large unrealized profits. If the price climbs too quickly, selling pressure could increase. The next few months may determine whether Bitcoin builds a solid base for higher valuations or faces resistance from within. As always, trade wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Bitcoin has surged above $104,000, nearing its January record high and adding over 10% in value over the past week. As of press time, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $104, 325, just 3.79% below its all-time high of $108,786 reached in January. The rally was initially triggered by renewed optimism around a tentative U.S.-U.K. trade agreement teased on May 8 by President Donald Trump, which injected fresh confidence into global markets. Now, a new catalyst is emerging. In a May 11 announcement, the White House revealed that trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have made “substantial progress,” though no official agreement has been finalized. The update came via a joint statement from Treasury secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer, adding anticipation to the market outlook. “I am happy to report that we made substantial progress between the United States and China in the very important trade talks,” Bessent stated. He noted that further details would be disclosed soon, but stopped short of confirming the existence of a finalized deal. Notably, he did not use the word “deal” at all during his remarks. You might also like:Top 3 catalysts for Bitcoin, altcoin prices this week More clarity is expected in the official briefing on May 12, which could serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s next leg upward. The crypto market, particularly Bitcoin, has been sensitive to these developments. Prior trade actions, like the tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico in February and the “Liberation Day” tariffs imposed in April, triggered sharp crypto selloffs, wiping hundreds of billions off the market.  Investors seem cautiously optimistic now that the White House has hinted at de-escalation, particularly as Bitcoin tries to break through the $108,000 mark once more. Bitcoin’s most recent gains, meanwhile, show stronger structural support. According to SoSoValue data, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw more than $1.7 billion in net inflows in the past month, reversing a negative trend that has dominated much of the trade war period. ARK Invest’s April report noted a continued decline in exchange balances, which had reached just 14%, the lowest since 2018, indicating ongoing accumulation. The demand from institutions is still high as well. With no intention of selling, Strategy’s 555,000 BTC holdings are regarded as illiquid, which adds to what CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju refers to as a “-2.23% annual deflation rate” for Bitcoin. Ju wrote on X, “Bitcoin is deflationary,” highlighting how institutional hoarding may cause supply to tighten. Analysts warn that without a clear resolution on trade, sentiment could turn quickly. For now, though, Bitcoin appears to be consolidating on solid ground. If institutional inflows continue and macro conditions improve, the market may be poised for a fresh all-time high. Read more:Coinbase CEO says ‘no’ to Saylor strategy: Why Brian Armstrong passed on the Bitcoin balance sheet bet

Bitcoin may be setting its sights on the $110,000 mark as large holders ramp up accumulation, despite smaller investors taking profits amid macro tailwinds. Wallets that hold between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin (BTC), often referred to as whales and sharks, have amassed more than 83,000 BTC in the last 30 days, according to a May 13 post on X by Santiment. In contrast, 387 BTC were offloaded from wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC during that period.  https://twitter.com/santimentfeed/status/1922151656306995529?s=46&t=nznXkss3debX8JIhNzHmzw These movements, though seemingly small for retail, are significant when measured relative to the total BTC held by each group. Santiment noted that small investors, including tiers slightly larger than 0.1 BTC, are showing signs of profit-taking, likely anticipating a local top. In contrast, the ongoing accumulation by large holders suggests confidence in further upside. This may push Bitcoin towards the $110,000 level, marking a new all-time high. The sentiment shift comes after a sharp surge fueled by macro news. The U.S. and China reached an agreement to slash tariffs for 90 days, which improved overall market sentiment. This caused Bitcoin to rally, briefly reaching a weekly high of $104,710 before falling to about $102,500 at the time of writing. You might also like:Bitcoin price poised for breakout with $127k target if $106k cracks soon Glassnode’s on-chain data shared on X on May 12 further supports the narrative. The company reported lower momentum buying and higher levels of profit-taking. While demand from first-time buyers remains strong, reflected by a consistently high relative strength index, the lack of follow-through from momentum traders could point to a temporary consolidation phase if new inflows slow. $BTC Supply Mapping shows sustained strength in new demand. First-Time Buyers RSI has held at 100 all week. But Momentum Buyers remain weak (RSI ~11), and Profit Takers are rising. If fresh inflows slow, lack of follow-through could lead to consolidation: https://t.co/vHqbU4hrPt pic.twitter.com/Ghqynb296Y— glassnode (@glassnode) May 12, 2025 Meanwhile, institutional demand remains firm. Strategy added $1.34 billion worth of Bitcoin on May 12, increasing its total holdings to 568,840 BTC, roughly 2.86% of the current circulating supply. Japan’s Metaplanet also boosted its reserves with a 1,241 BTC acquisition, now holding 6,796 BTC. According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net inflows of $2.03 billion in the past month. Looking at the technical picture,  Bitcoin is currently trading above all major moving averages, including the 10-day EMA and the 50-day SMA, both of which are showing “Buy” signals. Momentum indicators, such as the moving average convergence divergence, also exhibit bullish bias. Bitcoin price analysis. Credit: crypto.news The RSI, at 68, is hovering just below overbought levels. This suggests that the rally could face resistance near $105,000 to $106,300, where the upper Bollinger Band sits. A decisive break above this zone could push Bitcoin toward the $110,000 psychological milestone. On the flip side, a breakdown below support at $97,600 or $94,000 could open the door for deeper retracement toward $89,800, Bitcoin’s lower Bollinger Band and a key demand zone. Read more:Conor McGregor calls Bitcoin ‘immutable people’s money’ and asks about crypto

Digital asset investment products saw the highest inflows this year with $3.34 billion with Bitcoin investment products leading the charge, according to a new report by CoinShares. Last week, the digital asset market recorded its highest amount of inflows since mid-December 2024 and the third-largest weekly inflow of all-time. Digital asset investment products saw $3.4 billion in inflows coming in from all providers. BlackRock’s iShares ETFs contributed the largest share by product, with weekly inflows amounting to $1.5 billion. Other digital asset investment products that saw large inflows include ARK;s 21Shares with $621 million and Fidelity Wise Origin with $574 million. CoinShares head of research James Butterfill believes the influx of capital into digital asset investment products may be due to investors flocking to safe haven assets as a hedge against the economic uncertainty posed by more conventional assets. “We believe concerns over the tariff impact on corporate earnings and the dramatic weakening of the U.S. dollar are the reasons investors have turned towards digital assets,” wrote Butterfill. Crypto flows recorded last week by asset type and provider | Source: CoinShares You might also like:CoinShares: Digital asset investment products see third week of outflows with $795m When measured by asset type, Bitcoin (BTC) investment products remain the largest contributor to inflows, bringing in $3.18 billion in inflows last week. In fact, the amount of total assets under management for Bitcoin have now reached $132 billion, a level the market has not seen since February this year. Ethereum (ETH) investment products also saw $183 million inflows last week, effectively breaking the asset’s previous 8-week streak of outflows. On the other hand, Solana (SOL) became the only altcoin with outflows last week, reaching $5.7 million. Other altcoins saw little to no activity, with the exception of SUI (SUI) and XRP (XRP) which saw inflows amounting to $20.7 million and $31.6 million respectively. CoinShares’ latest report also noted that U.S. investors have been adding to their positions, contributing the largest share of inflows by region. Last week, U.S. saw inflows reaching $3.3 billion. Not only that, Germany and Switzerland also saw inflows of $51.5 million and $41.4 million respectively. This reflects the positive market sentiment present in the broader global landscape, with only Brazil and Canada experiencing outflows. You might also like:Bitcoin becomes fifth largest asset after $94k breakthrough

特朗普领导下的美国证券交易委员会新领导层推出的最新监管变化引起了政府监管机构的担忧。 特朗普的加密货币帝国及其近期的监管变化正引起多家监管机构的关注。4月14日，美国政府问责局宣布计划对美国证券交易委员会展开调查。 在致民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦和马克·沃纳的一封信中，负责政府监督的无党派机构美国政府问责局（GAO）确认，将调查SEC政治任命领导层实施的改革措施。这些改革措施包括据报道的裁员计划和限制该机构独立启动调查的能力。 今年2月，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的律师告诉路透社，新的政治任命领导层要求他们在启动调查前获得许可。当时，美国政府监管机构Accountable.US也对这些变化以及美国整体加密货币政策表示担忧。 自特朗普任命的领导层上台以来，SEC 已收到数百名员工的辞职通知。与此同时，该机构还向自愿辞职的员工提供丰厚的遣散费。 特朗普的加密货币投资引发腐败担忧 其中最令人担忧的是特朗普的各种加密货币投资，这些投资经常成为国会民主党人的攻击目标。首先，众议院议员马克辛·沃特斯指责特朗普利用权力成为“加密货币之王”。 沃特斯表示，特朗普利用手中的权力，推广他的“特朗普官方”（TRUMP）和世界自由金融公司，以此牟取私利。她声称，特朗普通过各种加密货币投资赚取了20亿美元，而普通投资者的利益却因此受损。 您可能还喜欢：SEC 代理主席 Mark Uyeda 考虑为加密货币公司设立监管“沙盒” 沃特斯与参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦一起，也表达了对腐败问题的担忧。沃特斯和沃伦解释说，WLFI 为外资加密货币公司提供了一个机会，让他们可以用加密货币来影响美国政治。例如，她提到了波场创始人孙宇晨在投资 3000 万美元后加入 WLFI 担任顾问的例子。 阅读更多：Trump-backed WLFI spent $100m on crypto buys （王牌）