美联储暗示将收紧政策，比特币基金领跑 4.15 亿美元资金流出

The Stacks Asia DLT Foundation has become the first Bitcoin-based foundation to register within the Abu Dhabi Global Market.  The move aims to support the expansion of Bitcoin (BTC) layer-2 technology across the Middle East and Asia. The foundation will use ADGM’s Distributed Ledger Technology Foundations framework, which is recognized for its flexibility.  Kyle Ellicott, interim Executive Director of the Stacks Asia DLT Foundation, said the decision was based on ADGM’s support for blockchain innovation and alignment with the Stacks (STX) ecosystem’s goals. Stacks is a Bitcoin layer-2 platform that extends Bitcoin’s functionality without changing its core network. Its expansion into ADGM follows regulatory approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, strengthening its regulatory position. You might also like:Tether holds more than 7.7 tons of gold backing its XAUT token Regional collaboration  The Stacks Asia DLT Foundation plans to collaborate with regional partners to run education programs and support Bitcoin development. It will also work with policymakers to shape regulations around digital assets, Bitcoin utility, and yield products. Ellicott said the foundation will use its base in ADGM to connect activities between Asia-Pacific and the UAE, with Hong Kong serving as a hub. The group will focus on promoting Bitcoin programmability and supporting innovation in Bitcoin DeFi applications. The foundation also plans to build on the recent launch of sBTC, a 1:1 Bitcoin-backed asset on the Stacks mainnet.  sBTC allows users to participate in decentralized finance activities like lending and trading while keeping Bitcoin’s security model. Hamad Sayah Al Mazrouei, CEO of ADGM Registration Authority, said Stacks’ registration shows the region’s growing role in digital assets and Bitcoin layer-2 development. The move comes as interest in Bitcoin-based technologies continues to grow across Asia and the Middle East. You might also like:‘Collateral of last resort’: Bitcoin price faces a $482 billion catalyst

Oxbridge Re Holdings Limited 是一家专门从事再保险和代币化现实世界资产的上市公司，该公司宣布将比特币和以太坊纳入其财政储备战略。 据该公司发布的消息称，这一决定凸显了该公司致力于通过融入比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）等基于区块链的机会来实现金融资产多元化。 首席执行官杰伊·马杜 (Jay Madhu) 强调了比特币作为价值存储手段的可靠性，并指出其采用率不断提高且价格稳定。 Madhu 表示：“我们的董事会认为，随着比特币在全球范围内的普及，在价格大幅上涨和投资者信心不断增强的支持下，比特币已证明了其作为价值存储手段的可靠性。” 此举与 Oxbridge 更广泛的区块链计划相一致，由其专注于 Web3 的子公司 SurancePlus Inc. 牵头。SurancePlus 致力于通过代币化和去中心化来改变再保险投资的渠道。 作为这些努力的一部分，SurancePlus 计划推出两种与即将推出的再保险合同挂钩的新代币：一种旨在实现 20% 的回报，另一种高收益期权旨在实现 42% 的回报。这两种代币都将由 Oxbridge 的附属工具 Oxbridge Re NS 促成的再保险合同支持。 你可能还喜欢：Rex Shares 为 TRUMP 和 DOGE ETF 提供文件 其他比特币储备 KULR Technology Group 和 Genius Group Limited 都刚刚增加了比特币持有量，作为其财务战略的一部分。 KULR 收购了价值 5000 万美元的 510 BTC，而 Genius Group 收购了价值 4000 万美元的 420 BTC。两家公司都已将超过 90% 的储备投入加密货币。 MicroStrategy 是一家以比特币投资策略而闻名的公司，该公司继续积极购买比特币。该公司以 11 亿美元的价格额外购买了 11,000 个比特币。 你可能还喜欢：KULR 和 Genius Group 扩大比特币持有量

Coinbase 已在英国金融行为监管局注册，成为在英国运营的最新加密货币交易所。 总部位于美国的加密货币交易所 Coinbase 重返英国，并已获得英国金融行为监管局的注册，成为该国获得批准的最新交易所。 此次注册允许 Coinbase 的英国子公司 CB Payments Ltd. 直接提供加密服务。该公司目前已在 FCA 登记册上注册，编号为 900635。 Coinbase 已通过 CB Payments Ltd. 在英国开展业务。但是，该公司不被允许直接销售加密货币。相反，它充当客户通过其他 Coinbase 实体交易加密货币的门户。获得批准后，CB Payments Ltd. 现在可以在其自己的结构下提供法定货币和加密货币服务。 你可能还喜欢：Coinbase 聘请四位金融和政治专家组成顾问委员会 Coinbase 收购 Spindl，以提供更好的链上广告

Global M2 money supply is at an all-time high — so why isn’t Bitcoin surging? Is something broken, or is a delayed breakout coming? 目录美联储会议临近，市场紧张不安M2流动性上升量化紧缩政策可能即将结束流动性激增遭遇机构不确定性 Markets on edge as the Fed meeting looms Markets are heading into the Federal Reserve’s Mar. 18-19 meeting with mounting uncertainty as economic conditions remain volatile. Stock markets have stumbled, inflation remains persistent, and investors are reassessing their expectations for interest rate cuts. Adding to the unpredictability, President Trump’s tariff policies and federal layoffs have raised fresh concerns about the broader economic outlook, injecting further instability into an already fragile market. Despite the turbulence, the Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%, with CME Group’s FedWatch tool assigning a 99% probability to no immediate adjustments. However, the real focus is on the timing of the first rate cut. Current projections suggest a potential reduction in June, with a 55% chance that rates will move to 4-4.25%.  总体而言，投资者预计 2025 年美联储将累计降息四分之三个百分点，这可能使美联储基准利率降至 3.5-3.75%。 在这种不确定性中，金融市场做出了强烈反应。标准普尔 500 指数已从 2 月 19 日的历史高点下跌超过 8%，而纳斯达克指数在 3 月 10 日暴跌 4%，这是自 2022 年以来最糟糕的交易日。 与此同时，波动率指数飙升至8月份以来的最高水平，反映出投资者在应对不断变化的政策，尤其是特朗普的关税上调时面临的困难。 比特币 (BTC) 也一直在苦苦寻找立足点，截至 3 月 18 日，价格仍在 82,300 美元左右波动，较 1 月份 109,114 美元的历史高点下跌近 25%。 BTC 价格图表 | 来源：crypto.news The question now is: What comes next? How will markets react if the Fed signals a shift in policy? And what does all of this mean for crypto in the coming weeks? Rising M2 liquidity Global liquidity is surging, and history suggests that risk assets like Bitcoin may soon react. As of Mar. 10, global M2 money supply reached an all-time high of $108.2 trillion, marking a 3.5% increase from its 2025 low of $104.5 trillion recorded on Jan. 6. 比特币和全球 M2 增长图 | 来源：BGeometrics 然而，在这一周期中，尽管流动性增加，但比特币的价格走势却表现出不一致，这引发了人们对是否存在延迟反应的质疑。 M2 货币供应量是衡量全球流动性的广义指标，涵盖现金、支票存款和易于转换的准货币资产。 当 M2 扩张时，流动性通常会流入高收益投资，从而导致股票、大宗商品和比特币上涨。相反，M2 收缩通常与避险期相吻合，此时资产难以找到上涨动力。 密切关注全球流动性的变化——这是推动比特币发展的最重要的长期因素之一。事实上，使用 2013 年至 2024 年的数据，BTC 与全球 M2 的相关性高达 94%。现在你知道为什么这么多人恳求结束量化紧缩政策，甚至恢复量化宽松政策了。pic.twitter.com/E27bkhS5Vx— Nic (@nicrypto) 2025 年 3 月 5 日 仔细查看历史数据，可以发现比特币与 M2 增长之间存在很强的相关性。比特币最显著的牛市发生在流动性快速扩张时期，而 M2 的下滑则发生在价格下跌或长期盘整之前。 然而，一个关键的观察结果是，比特币不会立即对流动性激增做出反应。研究表明，比特币在完全反映 M2 增长变化之前平均滞后约 10 周。 上面的 M2 图表进一步支持了这一说法。比特币从 2022-2023 年的低点复苏，与此同时 M2 增长也大幅上升。同样，在 2024 年中期，M2 再次扩张，随后比特币创下新高。 然而，在 2025 年初，尽管 M2 继续上升，但比特币进入了盘整期。缺少的因素似乎是流动性的变化率，而不是其绝对水平。 对比特币同比回报相对于 M2 同比变化的更深入分析，可以发现一个更清晰的模式——比特币最强劲的牛市往往出现在流动性增长快速加速时，而不是保持稳定时。 Hence, mere liquidity expansion isn’t enough to trigger a breakout — acceleration in M2 growth is the critical factor. 量化紧缩政策可能即将结束 美联储自 2022 年 6 月开始实施的量化紧缩 (QT) 计划可能即将进入最后阶段。 截至 3 月 18 日，Polymarket 上的投注额已超过 620 万美元，交易员认为美联储在 4 月 30 日结束 QT 的可能性为 100%。 从本质上讲，量化宽松 (QE) 与量化交易 (QT) 相反。美联储并没有通过购买债券向系统注入流动性，而是允许资产在资产负债表外到期，从而有效地将资金从流通中抽出。 这项政策与激进的加息相结合，有助于抑制通胀压力，但也造成了流动性限制，给市场带来压力。尽管量化紧缩政策产生了紧缩效应，但股票和加密资产仍成功上涨，但人们担心，在经济不确定性上升之际，持续的资产负债表缩减可能会耗尽流动性。 The minutes from the January FOMC meeting revealed that several policymakers were open to either slowing or pausing QT, largely due to uncertainties surrounding the federal debt ceiling and evolving money market conditions, Reuters reported. Analysts note that the Treasury Department’s extraordinary measures to keep government operations funded have been injecting temporary liquidity into the system.  This has made it harder for the Fed to accurately assess true reserve levels, creating a risk that it could withdraw too much liquidity too quickly, increasing financial market volatility. 尽管人们对量化紧缩政策将在近期结束的预期日益高涨，但并非所有分析师都同意这一时间安排。 巴克莱维持量化紧缩政策将在9月至10月之间结束的预测，并认为在3月或5月暂停缩减政策，随后再重启缩减政策是低效的。 与此同时，Wrightson ICAP分析师认为，美联储更有可能减缓资产购买的速度，而不是完全停止，并指出完全停止可能迫使美联储稍后恢复资产购买，从而给政策制定者带来沟通挑战。 其他机构，例如研究公司 LH Meyer 则警告称，量化紧缩政策的任何暂停都有可能导致经济完全停止，因为稍后再恢复这一进程可能会很困难——尤其是在市场状况依然脆弱的情况下。 流动性指标发出的混杂信号使得美联储判断正确停止点的能力变得复杂。 上次政策会议前对各大银行和基金经理进行的一项调查显示，量化紧缩政策可能在 6 月至 7 月之间结束。 美联储持有的资产已从 2022 年 9 万亿美元的峰值下降至 6.8 万亿美元，预计到这一过程结束时还将进一步降至 6.4 万亿美元左右。 然而，估计银行储备只会从当前的3.3万亿美元下降到3.125万亿美元，而美联储的逆回购工具——衡量过剩流动性的指标——在整个2月份一直保持在1000亿美元以下，这表明金融状况可能已经比预期的要紧。 从历史上看，退出量化紧缩政策是一个微妙的过程，如果美联储在未来几个月发出停止信号，则可能实际上标志着该计划的结束。 如果发生这种情况，其影响可能是广泛的——长期利率下降，美元走弱，以及对比特币和股票等风险资产的需求可能增加。 Liquidity surge meets institutional uncertainty 虽然 M2 货币供应量的增加是比特币牛市的强烈前兆，但链上指标和机构发展表明，短期前景可能尚未与这一趋势一致。 尽管全球 M2 创下历史新高，但比特币的价格走势已显示出疲软迹象。CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 警告称，“每个链上指标都预示着熊市”，指出新的流动性枯竭，新鲸鱼以较低的价格抛售 BTC。 #比特币牛市周期已经结束，预计价格将持续 6-12 个月的看跌或横盘走势。pic.twitter.com/f80bnNhjy4— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) 2025 年 3 月 17 日 他的分析将主成分分析 (PCA) 应用于各种指标，表明比特币的价格可能不会立即对流动性的上升做出反应。 One of the key metrics is MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), which compares Bitcoin’s market value to the price at which coins last moved, helping to determine whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued. Another critical metric is SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which measures whether Bitcoin holders are selling at a profit or a loss. 此外，NUPL（净未实现利润/损失）根据整个网络的未实现收益和损失来跟踪比特币持有者的整体盈利能力。 根据这些指标，比特币可能正在进入 6 至 12 个月的盘整阶段——这是历史上主要牛市之后出现的模式。 如果这是真的，比特币对流动性增加的反应可能会延迟而不是立即出现，这与之前的周期相似，即流动性扩张需要数月才能转化为看涨的价格行动。 与此同时，制度阻力也在加大。美国最近采用了比特币战略储备，标志着政府对比特币资产的看法发生了重大转变。 然而，这一举措并未受到全球金融机构的欢迎。长期倡导比特币、萨尔瓦多政府比特币高级顾问马克斯·凯泽 (Max Keiser) 指出，国际货币基金组织和信用评级机构已经开始下调美国信用评级，理由是比特币具有“不稳定影响”。 The IMF (and various credit rating agencies) are lowering US credit rating citing the destabilizing influence of Bitcoin. They recommend the US to immediately liquidate their BSR (Bitcoin Strategic Reserve).— Max Keiser (@maxkeiser) March 17, 2025 凯泽补充说，国际货币基金组织现在建议立即清算 BSR，这引发了人们对美国比特币持有量可能面临政治压力的担忧。 如果美国政府在这种压力下开始出售其比特币储备，至少在短期内，这可能会带来额外的下行势头。 投资者应保持对短期波动的谨慎态度，同时密切关注流动性趋势和政府行动。比特币未来几个月的走势可能需要耐心等待，才能看到下一个重大走势的形成。 明智地进行交易，切勿投资超过您能承受的损失的金额。 披露：本文不代表投资建议。本页内容和材料仅供教育之用。

Bonk price has rallied by triple digits after bottoming out at $0.000008870 in April, mirroring the performance of other popular Solana meme coins. Bonk (BONK) Bonk price has rallied by triple digits after bottoming out at $0.000008870 in April, mirroring the performance of other popular Solana meme coins. This rally is part of a broader rebound among Solana meme coins, with the collective market cap of these assets rising from $6 billion in April to $15 billion today. Bonk has also rallied as investors have embraced fear of missing out. SolScan data shows that the number of BONK holders is nearing 1 million. This rising interest has also fueled a spike in spot trading volume, which reached a multi-month high of $1.1 billion on Monday. You might also like:Hong Kong’s HashKey taps Dubai as regional base for crypto services Further, the rally also happened because of the recent Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) surge beginning from March. Its rally pushed more investors to embrace other Solana meme coins like Bonk. Like other cryptocurrencies, the ongoing Bonk price jump is happening because of macro factors like the US-China trade deal. It is also happening as investors bought the dip following its crash from $0.000060 in November last year to $0.0000089. Bonk price has formed a risky pattern Bonk price chart | Source: crypto.news The daily chart shows that Bonk has soared by over 163% from its 2025 low, climbing from $0.000008870 in April to a high of $0.00002588. It has now moved above the 50-day moving average and broken through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.000020. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and other oscillators continue to climb. However, there is a risk that the coin may be about to reverse as these oscillators have moved to the overbought level. Also, the coin has formed a rising wedge pattern, a popular reversal sign. A rising wedge consists of two upward-sloping, converging trendlines and often signals a potential reversal as the price approaches the wedge’s apex. If this plays out, the next key support level to watch will be the psychological zone around $0.000015. You might also like:Uniswap price prediction for 2025 and beyond: Will UNI soar or stumble?