瑞波币价格预测：上涨 1,500% 至 27 美元——2017 年牛市会重演吗？

如果美国证券交易委员会批准 ETF，XRP 价格预测将上涨 1,500%。Ripple 最终能否达到 27 美元并突破阻力位？

Ripple 的疯狂之旅

近几个月来，Ripple（XRP）经历了过山车式的波动，其巨大的价格波动和重大的监管发展吸引了市场的关注。

1 月 16 日，受强劲的市场情绪推动，该代币飙升至 3.39 美元的多年高点。然而，这波涨势是短暂的。

截至 2 月 17 日，XRP 已回落至 2.68 美元，较 1 月份的高点下跌 21%。目前仍比 2018 年 1 月创下的 3.89 美元的历史高点低约 31%。

尽管有所回调，XRP 仍然是前 100 名中表现最好的资产之一，在过去 90 天内实现了令人印象深刻的 145% 的回报率。这一回报率超过了以太坊 (ETH) 和 Solana (SOL) 等重量级货币，这两款货币在同一时期都贬值了。

Amid these fluctuations, broader market forces are also at play. The election of President Donald Trump introduced a more crypto-friendly atmosphere in the U.S., with the Trump administration’s positive stance on digital assets boosting investor confidence. This, in turn, has contributed to the upward trajectory of crypto assets, including XRP.

Additionally, the resignation of SEC Chair Gary Gensler has further fueled optimism, as market participants anticipate a more accommodating regulatory environment under the new SEC leadership of acting chair Mark Uyeda.

With a mix of strong price action, regulatory intrigue, and shifting political winds, what can we expect from XRP? Let’s explore this further in our Ripple price prediction.

XRP ETF 终于来了吗？

在持续的波动和关键发展中，XRP 一直备受关注。

2 月 13 日出现了一个重大转折点，当天美国证券交易委员会正式承认了纽约证券交易所和 Grayscale Investments 提交的现货 XRP 交易所交易基金申请。

该提案概述了将 Grayscale 现有的 1610 万美元 XRP 信托转换为完全可交易的 ETF 的计划，其中 Coinbase Custody Trust Company 担任托管人，纽约梅隆银行负责行政职责。

The SEC’s acknowledgement means that the review process has officially begun, setting the stage for a potential approval or rejection within a 240-day window. 

The first key deadline is set for mid-March, marking the start of a 45-day review period. After that, the SEC may either make a decision or extend the timeline, with a final decision expected by mid-October 2025.

But Grayscale isn’t the only firm pushing for an XRP ETF. The Chicago Board Options Exchange has also filed a 19b-4 application for Bitwise’s XRP ETF, with other firms also vying for approval. Unlike Grayscale, which seeks to convert an existing trust into an ETF, Bitwise is launching a completely new fund.

Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, recently discussed the challenges and progress of XRP ETF applications. He noted that while previous filings have seen starts and stops, with some firms withdrawing their applications, the fact that multiple issuers are now refiling suggests that the SEC is at least open to considering these ETFs.

Hougan remains cautiously optimistic, pointing out that while approval could take time, the SEC is becoming more willing to engage in discussions about these products. 

He also highlighted a key difference between XRP and other commodity-based ETFs like Bitcoin and gold — those assets had regulated futures markets before their ETFs were approved, whereas XRP does not. 

Although a futures market is not mandatory for XRP ETFs, it would play a key role in the approval process.

这些文件之所以格外引人注目，是因为 Ripple 和 SEC 之间正在进行的法律纠纷。2020 年 12 月，SEC 起诉 Ripple，称 XRP 被作为未注册证券出售。

2023 年 8 月，一名联邦法官裁定 XRP 在二级市场交易时不属于证券，Ripple 取得了部分胜利。然而，监管不确定性仍然存在，这使得 XRP 的 ETF 审批流程与现货比特币 (BTC) 或以太坊 ETF 相比更加复杂。

ETF Store 总裁 Nate Geraci 指出了其中的讽刺之处——SEC 一边与 Ripple 打官司，一边又在审查一只将持有 XRP 的 ETF。Geraci 甚至称这是“重大信号”，暗示 SEC 对 XRP 的立场可能正在转变。

Adding to the growing buzz, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have estimated a 65% probability of XRP ETF approval by the end of 2025.

XRP’s make-or-break moment looms

XRP is at a make-or-break moment, approaching a resistance level that has defined its fate for years. 

Over the past two months, XRP has tested the $3.15 to $3.50 range, a zone that has consistently determined whether XRP breaks into a major rally or gets stuck in consolidation.

1 月 16 日，XRP 创下 3.39 美元的多年高点，但这一上涨尝试最终失败。随后，2 月 3 日，由于特朗普的关税威胁震动了全球市场，XRP 暴跌 43% 至 1.94 美元，引发了大规模抛售，并导致了加密货币历史上最严重的跌幅之一。

尽管出现了混乱，但 XRP 随后出现反弹，并再次接近同一阻力位，为另一次潜在的突破奠定了基础。

除了短期波动之外，更重要的事情正在发生。XRP 自 2018 年以来形成的圆底形态即将完成，这一结构耗时近七年才形成。

如果 XRP 达到历史最高价 3.89 美元，该模式将正式完成，标志着长期积累阶段的结束。届时，XRP 将进入价格发现阶段，这意味着将不再有历史阻力位来阻碍它。

The question now is what will provide the final push. Broader market conditions are not fully supportive yet, as Bitcoin hasn’t hit a new all-time high, and liquidity remains concentrated in just a few assets.

One of the biggest potential catalysts is ETF approval. If the SEC greenlights an XRP ETF, institutional demand could surge, driving prices past resistance with sheer volume.

Another key factor could be strategic adoption — if XRP is included in a financial system reserve or gains a major institutional use case, the surge in demand could propel it into uncharted territory.

The third wildcard is the SEC lawsuit appeal. If the appeal is dismissed, legal clarity alone could trigger a wave of buying.

Now, all eyes are on whether XRP can finally push through or if history will repeat itself once again. The next attempt to clear $3.50 may prove to be the most significant in its history.

XRP price prediction: Could history repeat itself?

XRP’s 2017 bull run remains a key reference point, with several indicators suggesting that XRP is now mirroring the setup that led to its parabolic rise. 

One of the bullish arguments comes from Egrag Crypto, which points to the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB), a technical indicator used to determine whether an asset is in a bullish or bearish phase.

“目前，我们的仓位位于 BMSB 上方，”他解释道，并指出他曾预测 XRP 将重新回到这一水平，即使当时价格为 3.40 美元。成功重新测试这一支撑位可能表明市场正在为下一步行动积蓄力量。

Egrag 将这一情况与 2017 年的情况进行了比较，当时 XRP 遵循了几乎相同的模式。他指出，当时 XRP 几乎触及 BMSB，随后在短短四周内飙升 1,500%，目标是 Fib 1.618 水平。

斐波那契水平在技术分析中被广泛用于预测价格走势，2017 年，XRP 的突破就遵循了这一模式。如果历史重演，Egrag 预测价格将上涨 1,500% 至 27 美元。

Javon Marks takes this further, highlighting how XRP’s recent price action mirrors its 2017 breakout. Prices recently tested the all-time high as resistance, just as they did in 2017 before surging beyond it. Marks’ new second target is at $99, an astonishing 3,900% increase from current levels.

除了斐波那契扩展之外，艾略特波浪理论还指出了 XRP 的巨大潜力。Dark Defender 自 2023 年 7 月以来一直在追踪 XRP 的波浪结构，当时价格约为 40 到 50 美分。

According to his analysis, XRP is currently in Wave 4 of the Intermediate Cycle, with Wave 5 targeting $5.85. His Primary Cycle Waves, which track long-term movements, suggest a major upside target of $18.22.

“I’ve used the same structure since July 2023, and we are following it as the Northern Star,” Dark Defender explains, suggesting XRP has consistently respected this pattern. If his wave count holds, XRP could be on the verge of completing a major cycle.

However, big breakouts don’t happen in isolation. XRP still faces its biggest resistance zone between $3.15 and $3.50, which requires a major catalyst to break through.

For traders looking to take advantage of this setup, risk management is key. Placing stop-loss orders can help minimize losses in case of rejection, and avoiding over-leveraging is crucial, as sudden pullbacks could lead to liquidation.

However, nothing in the crypto market is guaranteed. The same indicators that suggest explosive upside potential can also fail under changing market conditions. Trade wisely, manage risk, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.