随着唐纳德·特朗普的贸易战愈演愈烈,Polymarket 和 Kalshi 上美联储紧急降息的可能性急剧上升。
A Polymarket poll with over $360,000 in assets shows that these odds have surged to 31%, up from 15% on April 1. A similar prediction market on Kalshi places the odds at 41%, the highest level since November last year.Â
These expectations have climbed as multiple analysts downgraded their economic outlook for the U.S. amid the expanding trade war. Notably, the U.S. recently imposed a 104% tariff on all Chinese goods, a sweeping measure likely to significantly impact both economies. China exports roughly $432 billion worth of goods to the U.S. annually, out of a total trade volume of $582 billion between the two nations.
美国还对欧盟、日本、韩国和越南等几个主要贸易伙伴实施了广泛关税。
摩根大通、贝莱德和高盛等华尔街顶级投行均已上调今年的经济衰退预测。因此,美联储紧急降息越来越被视为降低借贷成本、向经济注入流动性的可能应对措施。
比特币(BTC)、卡尔达诺(ADA)和瑞波币(XRP)今年已进入熊市,这与股市的整体下跌趋势相呼应。道琼斯指数、标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克100指数均已较2024年高点下跌超过20%,正式进入熊市区域。
History shows that risky assets like stocks and crypto do well whenever the Federal Reserve implements an emergency interest rate cut. A good example happened in March 2020 when the fear and greed index dropped to the extreme fear zone as the pandemic started.Â
A series of interest rate cuts, quantitative easing, and fiscal stimulus helped to boost crypto and stock prices. Bitcoin soared from below $4,000 in March 2020 to over $69,000 a year later. Similarly, XRP price jumped from $0.12 to almost $2, while Cardanoâs meteoric rise pushed it to $3 and its market cap to $91 billion.Â
Donald Trump has already started talking about fiscal stimulus. According to the Wall Street Journal, the administration is considering a bailout for farmers and a tax credit to help exporters navigate the new normal.Â
因此,美联储的宽松货币政策和更多的财政刺激措施将有助于推高比特币、卡尔达诺和 XRP 的价格。