曾预测2008年金融危机的雷·达利欧（Ray Dalio）表示，美国正处于比经济衰退更糟糕的边缘。比特币储备能解决问题吗？

On Apr. 13, 2025, a U.S. billionaire and founder of the biggest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, told NBC’s Meet the Press reporter that “right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession.” Still, he is worried about “something worse than a recession.” He shared his view of a possible upcoming catastrophe and outlined what could be a remedy.

“比经济衰退更糟糕”

The Meet the Press reporter asked Dalio to explain what he meant when he said that the tariff problem is a symptom of a greater problem. Dalio indicated several simultaneous issues at once. According to Dalio, these problems are the growing government debt that changes the American monetary order and the internal political conflict that changes the American political order. 

On top of it, Dalio said that external conflicts, changing technologies, and natural disasters (like floods, pandemics, etc.) are the factors contributing to instability. He said that tariffs are carried out in a chaotic and “very disruptive” way, lacking quality negotiations, pragmatism, and stability. However, Dalio noted that the outcome would be clear in 90 days, probably due to a pause in tariffs applied by the Trump Administration.

When asked about the probability of a recession, Dalio answered that the recession per se is not something terrible; it’s just two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, while the challenges that America is facing now are more profound, and they may change the domestic and monetary order in the U.S. Dalio compared the upcoming crisis with the 1930s, the Great Depression times.  

According to Dalio, if the budget deficit is not regulated, the country will face a supply and demand problem for the U.S. debt. Potentially, it may break the monetary system down. If it happens combined with other challenges mentioned above, the country may slip into a more severe state than it had during the Great Depression years or the 2008 financial crisis. Dalio warned the listeners about the possible internal conflict, saying that it “is not the normal democracy as we know it.” Additionally, Dalio doesn’t exclude the possibility of America’s involvement in an international military conflict. The new crisis may disrupt the world order created in 1945.

“Tariffs are only a symptom.”

In the Meet The Press interview, Dalio didn’t provide any details on how he sees the future crisis. Days before this interview, Dalio shared a popular long X post titled “Don’t Make the Mistake of Thinking That What’s Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs.” In the first lines of the post, Dalio stresses that tariffs are only a symptom of the bigger issue. The large debt is what sets a dangerous imbalance in the world’s economy. 

以下是他对当前世界秩序不稳定性的看法：

旧的货币/经济秩序——像中国这样的国家以低成本制造产品，向美国人销售，并购买美国债务资产，而美国人则从像中国这样的国家借钱进行购买，最终积累巨额债务——必须改变。这种显然不可持续的局面更加难以为继，因为它们导致美国制造业衰退，不仅掏空了美国中产阶级的就业岗位，还迫使美国从这个日益被视为敌人的国家进口所需物资。

特朗普关税政策唯一可能带来的积极结果是，它将通过吸引制造商回流美国来刺激美国的技术发展。然而，由于其他因素，美国将经历几个颠覆性的过程。达利欧认为，旧体系无法生存，政府最终是选择轻松还是艰难地放弃它，取决于政府。

Despite the fact that Dalio is very critical of the way the tariffs were deployed, some of his commenters still found a way to see Trump’s policy as a remedy for the crisis described by Dalio. However, the billionaire offers his own vision of how to stop the crisis.

达利欧提出了解决方案

达利欧不仅预见了各种挑战，还概述了防止“比经济衰退更糟糕”的危机发生的方法。桥水基金创始人认为，国会应该做出“3%的承诺”，将预算赤字削减至3%。

尽管达利欧对当前的问题非常担忧，但他仍然相信有出路。达利欧认为，如果政府不尽快采取行动，赤字将升至7%，并引发其他负面因素，最终扰乱美国货币体系。

比特币能成为解决方案吗？

Dalio 对加密货币并不保守，他的投资组合中也持有一些。显然，他并不认为加密货币是普遍的避险资产，而是一个有趣的新资产类别，可以分散他的投资组合。Dalio 表示，他更喜欢黄金而不是加密货币。这两种资产今年都创下了历史新高。

Dalio’s reservations about Bitcoin include crypto’s transparency (the government knows what Dalio holds and can tax him) and volatility. According to Dalio, Bitcoin cannot be a reserve currency as it is rather a speculative asset. 

Donald Trump and Michael Saylor explore Bitcoin’s potential to devour the U.S. national debt, which is the root of all evil, judging by what Dalio writes and says. If Trump and Saylor are right, Bitcoin may save America from a crisis that is worse than a recession. However, Larry Fink of BlackRock warns about the opposite: the U.S. debt may undermine America’s global leadership in crypto.