预测市场 Polymarket、Kalshi 预计美国禁止 TikTok 的可能性为 79-89%：特朗普将“审查”情况

CoinMarketCap 山寨币季度指数目前低于 40，表明山寨币相对于比特币的表现仍然不佳。接下来会怎样？ CMC 山寨币季节指数是一种工具，它通过跟踪过去 90 天内排名前 100 位的加密货币的表现，帮助判断市场是处于山寨币季节还是比特币 (BTC) 季节。当这些山寨币中有 75% 或更多的表现优于比特币时，市场被认为处于山寨币季节。 2024 年 12 月，该指数达到 64，标志着山寨币季节的开始。然而，自 1 月初以来，该指数一直保持在 40 以上，现在显示出进一步下跌的迹象。截至 2 月 17 日，该指数为 36，表明比特币目前领先市场。 CoinMarketCap 山寨币季节指数。资料来源：CoinMarketCap 尽管市场持续波动，但比特币表现出了非凡的实力，保持在 96,000 美元以上。更大市场的走向可能取决于比特币的下一步行动。尽管整体基调乐观，但 CryptoQuant 分析师 Maartunn 似乎并不这么认为。 Maartunn 指出，交易所间流动脉冲 (IFP) 指标预示着看跌趋势。该指标追踪比特币在衍生品和现货市场之间的走势。通常，流入衍生品的资金增加表明市场看涨。然而，当前的负面信号表明，比特币在突破之前可能会面临进一步的阻力。 交易所间流动脉冲 (IFP) 转为看跌 ❌️该指标使用 CryptoQuant 的比特币交易所流量数据来衡量现货和衍生品交易所之间的比特币流量。这些流量数据显示了市场情绪。流入（流出）的比特币数量不断增加（减少）……pic.twitter.com/zokdfeE8xc— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) 2025 年 2 月 15 日 你可能还喜欢：美国接受比特币储备的州名单正在增加

Dominari Holdings 推出了其“Dominari Bitcoin Treasury”战略，将其部分现金储备分配给比特币（BTC）。 该公司将把部分过剩现金和收益投资于贝莱德的 iShares 比特币信托 ETF，该 ETF 目前是全球最大的比特币 ETF。 该公司已经向该比特币 (BTC) 计划投资了 200 万美元，并计划随着现金储备的增长增加其持有量。该公司“计划随着公司现金储备的不断增长继续这种做法”。 你可能还喜欢：随着 Pudgy Penguins 销量暴跌，PENGU 价格暴跌 传统金融将比特币添加到其储备中 MicroStrategy 和 Semler Scientific 等公司也对比特币进行了大量投资，将其视为对冲通货膨胀和货币贬值的工具。 决定投资 IBIT 等比特币 ETF 可以让公司接触到比特币的潜在利益，而无需担心直接所有权的复杂性，例如托管和安全问题。 KULR Technology Group is a good example of this trend as it recently increased its Bitcoin holdings to 668.3 BTC after purchasing an additional $5 million worth at an average price of $88,824 per BTC.  KULR, which committed in December 2024 to allocating up to 90% of its surplus cash to Bitcoin, has reported a 181.1% BTC yield year to date. As more corporations adopt similar treasury strategies, the integration of digital assets into traditional finance continues to accelerate. You might also like:ZachXBT 报告称本月 Coinbase 用户诈骗案金额达 4600 万美元

比特币市场经历了重大重置，短短两个月内未平仓合约就蒸发了超过 100 亿美元，这让分析师相信比特币价格即将复苏。 根据 CryptoQuant 分析师 Darkfost 在 X 上的最新市场分析帖子，1 月 17 日，比特币 (BTC) 的未平仓合约创下 330 亿美元的新高，表明市场杠杆率极高。然而，与美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普最近的行动相关的政治不确定性引发了一波清算潮。 https://twitter.com/darkfost_coc/status/1901368698868473975?s=46&t=nznXkss3debX8JIhNzHmzw 随后，2 月 20 日至 3 月 4 日期间，近 100 亿美元的未平仓合约消失了。这一急剧下跌导致比特币 90 天期货未平仓合约变化率下降至 -14%，这通常预示着价格回升之前的市场重置。分析师认为，消除过度投机，这些阶段为未来的增长提供了更稳定的基础。 你可能还喜欢：“我们现在看到的就像 2017 年 3 月一样。”分析师解释了为什么比特币可能很快复苏——或者崩盘得更厉害 尽管比特币价格有所下跌，但其长期前景仍然乐观。经济学家蒂莫西·彼得森 (Timothy Peterson) 表示，4 月和 10 月通常是比特币季节性涨幅最大的时期。彼得森最近的分析显示，比特币可能会在 6 月之前创下历史新高，中值为 126,000 美元。 比特币的交易价格接近其历史季节性波动范围的低端。比特币的年度表现几乎全部发生在两个月：4 月和 10 月。比特币完全有可能在 6 月之前创下历史新高。pic.twitter.com/p8upTNAkKH— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) 2025 年 3 月 15 日 此外，他的“最低价格预测”模型估计了比特币在未来交易中不太可能跌破的价格水平，该模型表明比特币的价格底线现已升至 69,000 美元，持有的可能性为 95%。过去的牛市表明，像比特币最近 30% 的回调这样的调整往往先于强劲反弹。 然而，并非所有分析师都完全看好比特币。Into The Cryptoverse 创始人本杰明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 在 3 月 15 日的 YouTube 直播中警告称，如果比特币跌破 2024 年的高点（即 70,000 美元以下），其牛市周期可能陷入危险。考恩将当前周期与 2017 年比特币重新测试前一年高点时的情况进行了比较。 他表示，如果比特币收于 60,000 美元出头，牛市可能就结束了。此外，据 Cowen 称，保持在 70,000-73,000 美元以上将维持市场结构。如果比特币跌破这一水平，可能预示着今年晚些时候宏观价格将走低，这可能导致第三季度的前景更加悲观。 比特币仍处于关键的盘整阶段，截至发稿时，其当前价格为 82,900 美元。如果过去的趋势保持不变，此次重置可能会为未来几个月的另一次强劲反弹铺平道路。 阅读更多：欢迎来到 Pi Coin 的混乱之中 — 价值 120 亿美元的加密货币、币安上市传闻、沮丧的社区以及一位称其为庞氏骗局的首席执行官

Solana price has rallied for three consecutive weeks as cryptocurrencies and meme coins in its ecosystem rebound. Solana (SOL) crossed the key resistance level at $150, surging by 60% from its lowest point this month. Most Solana meme coins have bounced back this week. Bonk (BONK) price soared by 35% in the last seven days, while Fartcoin (FARTCOIN), Dogwifhat (WIF), Pudgy Penguins, and Popcat (POPCAT) have climbed by over 50% in the last seven days. This recovery has pushed the combined market cap of Solana meme coins to over $8.78 billion, a notable rebound from the $6 billion valuation seen earlier this month. Decentralized exchanges within the Solana ecosystem have also experienced a sharp rise in trading activity. Monthly volume rose to $57.7 billion, passing Ethereum’s (ETH) $56.7 billion. Daily trading volume rose to $2.7 billion, higher than Ethereum’s $2.18 billion. You might also like:Here’s why Pi Network founders could be crypto billionaires This rally has been fueled by platforms like Raydium, Pump, and Drift, whose weekly volumes have jumped by over 10%. Their trading activity tends to increase when meme coins and ecosystem tokens are performing well. Additionally, Solana’s surge coincided with a rise in futures open interest, which reached $5.76 billion—its highest level since February 3. Rising open interest often signals growing investor interest and bullish momentum. Solana has also solidified its position as the most active blockchain in terms of user engagement. The number of active addresses over the past seven days reached 28.7 million, while the total number of transactions hit 370.9 million. Top blockchains ranked by transactions and fees | Source: Nansen Chart pattern points to a Solana price surge to $500 SOL price chart | Source: crypto.news The weekly chart shows that Solana has formed a highly bullish technical pattern that could push the price toward $500 over time. It has slowly formed a cup and handle pattern, comprising of a rounded bottom and a consolidation or a pullback. The recent retreat was part of forming the handle section of the pattern.  To estimate a target from a C&H formation, analysts typically measure the depth of the cup and project that distance upward from the neckline. In Solana’s case, the cup’s depth is about 98%, suggesting a potential upside from the $260 breakout level to around $515. However, it’s worth noting that a cup and handle pattern on the weekly timeframe often takes time to play out. The cup section itself took about three years to form, meaning the path to $500 could unfold over several months or even years. You might also like:SOL Strategies secures $500m in funding for Solana purchases and staking

Co-founder and former CEO of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried has reportedly been transferred to a low-security prison in California after doing time in a notoriously violent facility dubbed ‘Victimville.’ According to the Federal Bureau of Prisons’ inmate registry, Bankman-Fried has recently been moved to the low-security Federal Correctional Institution Terminal Island in Los Angeles. It takes around three hours to get to Terminal Island from Bankman-Fried’s previous facility in Victorville, which was notorious for its violence. Terminal Island Federal Correctional Institution has housed a number of notable inmates in the past, including music entrepreneur Mouli Cohen and former stockbroker Anthony Elgindy, both of whom were convicted of fraud as well as other charges. According to a joint defense attorney’s website, the facility offers a law library that inmates can access if they spend up to $360 a month from a commissary account. It also provides inmates with wellness and social programs, along with courses in welding, plumbing, pipe fitting, cabinet making, baking cooking, and other occupational apprenticeships. Sam Bankman-Fried’s recent transfer seems aligned with his lawyer’s previous efforts to get him moved to a lower-security facility compared to the South California medium-security facility. Lawyers cited Bankman-Fried’s lack of prior criminal record and his autism as reasons for a transfer. However, the Federal Bureau of Prisons has yet to reveal the exact reason for agreeing to Sam Bankman-Fried’s transfer. You might also like:SBF talks crypto from prison: ‘Changing the guard helps’ What was Sam Bankman-Fried’s previous facility like? The former FTX CEO spent nearly two weeks in the brutal medium-security facility in Victorville, California. He was moved there after spending two weeks at an Oklahoma Transfer Center after his 18-month stay at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, New York. Often referred to as “Victimville” in online forums, the Victorville facility is known for its significantly higher risks of gang violence, where fights are considered commonplace and stabbings are a regular occurrence. In fact, three prison inmates were found guilty of second-degree murder in January 2023. They had beaten another inmate to death at the facility back in 2013. A similar incident took place in 2017, when an inmate was convicted of attempted murder for stabbing a warden. Moreover, guards have also been assaulted in separate incidents later within the same year. Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison after he was found guilty of seven counts of fraud and conspiracy by a Manhattan jury. His release date is listed for December 14, 2044. Despite the sentence, Bankman-Fried’s parents are reportedly trying to secure a pardon for their son from President Donald Trump. Trump had previously pardoned Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht from his life-long prison sentence, which sparked other white-collar defendants to seek similar pardons. Read more:Sam Bankman-Fried’s parents want Trump to pardon son: report