ETH/BTC 刚刚跌至 2020 年以来的最低点——而且跌势可能尚未结束

随着 Solana 取得进展且 ETH/BTC 比率跌破 0.022，以太坊是否仍能占据 L1 主导地位？

ETH/BTC 创多年新低

以太坊 (ETH) 是全球市值第二大的加密货币，现在正面临严峻的现实考验。ETH/BTC 比率是衡量以太坊相对于比特币 (BTC) 实力的指标，已降至 0.022，为 2020 年 12 月以来的最低水平，表明以太坊的相对表现急剧下降。

自 2022 年 9 月该比率徘徊在 0.085 左右以来，以太坊相对于比特币的价值已下跌超过 73%。截至本文撰写时，ETH 的交易价格约为 1,880 美元，过去一周下跌 9%，较 2021 年 11 月的历史高点 4,890 美元大幅下跌 62%。

相比比特币（今年迄今仅下跌 10%，交易价格为 84,300 美元）而言，以太坊在同一时间段内的跌幅高达 46%，跌幅是比特币的四倍多。

The declining ratio reflects Ethereum’s slipping dominance in the smart contract and layer 1 ecosystem, a space it once ruled unchallenged.

As other L1s like Solana (SOL), Binance Chain (BNB), Avalanche (AVAX), and others gain ground, and as Bitcoin reasserts its dominance, Ethereum appears to be treading water.

Let’s take a closer look at what’s driving this imbalance, whether Ethereum is genuinely losing ground, and what it means for the future of the L1 blockchain race.

Ethereum’s metrics show signs of softening

As of Apr. 1, Ethereum’s total value locked stands at approximately $50.5 billion, accounting for 52.5% of the total market. This marks a notable drop from 61.64% in February 2024, pointing to a gradual loss of share in the decentralized finance market.

这种转变的部分原因可以归因于 Solana 等竞争对手的崛起，Solana 的 TVL 大幅增长。Solana 的份额从 2.84% 增长到 7.24%，总 TVL 达到 66.9 亿美元，在短短一年多的时间里增长了 2.5 倍多。

一个新兴趋势是跨网络用户行为的差异。以太坊继续吸引参与被动 DeFi 活动（例如收益耕作和质押）的用户。

相比之下，Solana 的生态系统吸引了更多投机性、活跃的交易者，尤其是在 meme 代币和高频 DeFi 领域，这表明以太坊现有的用例虽然强劲，但可能与零售用户活动的当前趋势不一致。

与此同时，高昂的 Gas 费用（以太坊历史上最大的障碍之一）也已得到改善。2025 年 3 月，平均 Gas 价格降至 1.12 GWEI，远低于前几年的水平。

But despite these improvements, Ethereum still remains relatively expensive and slower to use compared to newer chains, especially for users making smaller transactions.

Amid this, while Bitcoin ETFs have attracted more than $36 billion in net inflows to date, Ethereum ETFs have struggled to capture attention. In March 2025 alone, net total flows into ETH ETFs fell by 9.8%, dropping to $2.43 billion.

交易方面，围绕以太坊的情绪似乎正在恶化。根据 Kobeissi Letter 报道，以太坊的空头仓位在 2 月初激增 40%，自 2024 年 11 月以来已增长超过 500%，标志着空头仓位达到了前所未有的水平。

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s overall market dominance has now dropped below 8.4%, its lowest level in over four years. As Milocredit, a crypto mortgage company, noted, this suggests that capital is flowing out of ETH and into other options, including Bitcoin, Solana, and emerging layer 1 platforms that are capitalizing on Ethereum’s slowed momentum.

可扩展性的权衡正在迎头赶上

多年来，以太坊的增长故事一直依赖于扩展的承诺。然而，截至 2025 年初，这一承诺在基础层仍未实现。尽管经过多次协议升级，以太坊的主网仍然只能每秒处理 10 到 62 笔交易。

在撰写本文时，其有效吞吐量徘徊在每秒 16 笔交易左右——这一数字与 Solana 的 4,322 TPS 形成鲜明对比。这已成为新用户和应用程序选择在其他地方构建的一个关键原因。

The transition to proof-of-stake via the Merge in 2022 significantly improved Ethereum’s energy efficiency, cutting energy use by over 99%. However, it did little to resolve the network’s core throughput limitations. 

As a result, Ethereum has increasingly relied on layer-2 rollups like Arbitrum (ARB), Optimism (OP), and Base to scale its operations. These networks extend Ethereum’s capabilities by processing transactions off-chain and settling them back on the mainnet. 

Although L-2 adoption has lowered user costs, it has also led to unintended consequences. Activity is shifting away from Ethereum’s mainnet, drawing both users and transaction fees toward L-2 ecosystems. 

正如 X 上的一位用户所说，“Arbitrum 和 Optimism 正在赚取巨额费用……而以太坊的基础层正在变成一座鬼城。”

这一趋势有数据支持。渣打银行的 Geoff Kendrick 等分析师认为，L2（尤其是 Coinbase 的 Base 等交易量较大的 L2）正在吸走数十亿美元的交易费，而这些费用原本会流经以太坊主网。

Kendrick 估计，仅 Base 一项就通过转移经济活动从以太坊市值中抹去了约 500 亿美元的价值。反过来，这减少了通过 gas 费消耗的 ETH 数量，削弱了其通货紧缩机制以及 ETH 长期以来作为“超声波货币”的宣传。

After EIP-1559, Ethereum’s fee-burning mechanism was expected to counterbalance issuance. However, with activity now fragmented across dozens of rollups and sidechains, overall fee burns have dropped significantly.

ETH has once again become net inflationary, now at an annualized rate of 0.5%. Meanwhile, staking yields have fallen below 2.5%, making ETH less attractive when compared to stablecoin strategies offering returns of over 4.5% across DeFi platforms.

Even Ethereum’s upcoming upgrade, Pectra — designed to improve L2 efficiency by increasing blob capacity from three to six for data availability won’t do much.

Kendrick has stated that he does not expect Pectra to reverse the broader ETH/BTC decline, calling the upgrade insufficient to address Ethereum’s underlying structural issues.

At the same time, activity on Ethereum’s mainnet appears to be drying up. Bots, particularly address poisoning bots, are now dominating gas usage on top contracts. Fewer organic applications are deploying directly to the mainnet.

正如一位用户所说，“ETH 主网正在变成一座坟场”。虽然这可能有点夸张，但以太坊的核心层正在失去其作为链上创新主要目的地的声誉。

Ethereum price prediction: Is the bottom in?

Several signals from market analysts point to a wide spectrum of possible outcomes, but the risks appear to be stacking up more quickly for ETH than the potential tailwinds.

On the macro front, Ethereum remains heavily tied to the broader risk asset environment. According to Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone, “ETH remains closely correlated with risk assets,” meaning its performance is likely to reflect that of U.S. equities and high-beta sectors.

如果股市在 2025 年进一步下跌，尤其是在高利率、持续通胀或全球增长放缓的压力下，以太坊可能会面临更大的下行压力。

麦克格隆警告称，在宏观环境恶化的情况下，ETH 可能“重新回到 1,000 美元的水平”，这将意味着较当前水平下跌近 50%。

从技术角度来看，价格结构也显示出紧张的迹象。分析师 Mags 表示，以太坊的图表是“有史以来最糟糕的图表之一”，指出在此周期中屡屡未能突破 4,000 美元的阻力区。

After three attempts, ETH not only failed to reclaim its highs but also lost support at its mid-range level and fell below an upward-sloping trendline that had held since the previous market bottom.

这种跌幅，加上当前水平以下缺乏强劲支撑，有可能重新测试 1,060 美元附近的区间——这是 2022 年熊市期间最后一次出现的价格。正如 Mags 所指出的，“从技术上讲，看跌情景看起来更有可能出现。”

然而，交易员 Michaël van de Poppe 的观点更为乐观，他观察到以太坊可能正在显露出潜在“偏差”的早期迹象。

According to him, if ETH can cleanly break above the $2,100 to $2,150 zone, it could spark a sharp move up to $2,800, indicating renewed strength in the market.

He also highlighted a recent decline in the U.S. Dollar Index as a favorable macro signal, suggesting that a weaker dollar might help support a crypto rebound in Q2.

不过，这些看涨情景取决于以太坊能否收复关键技术水平，以及更广泛的市场情绪是否转为有利。在此之前，下行风险仍然更加明显。

短期内，以太坊的走势似乎与宏观经济周期和比特币的定位密切相关。突破 2,150 美元的决定性走势可能标志着复苏阶段的开始。然而，如果没有这一点，技术和结构压力可能会持续存在。

谨慎交易，投资金额切勿超过您能承受的损失。