2025-03-18 11:56:28
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如果这种历史模式重演,比特币价格将面临突破

如果这种历史模式重演,比特币价格将面临突破

比特币价格一直处于窄幅区间,但历史趋势和链上数据表明突破可能即将到来。

比特币(BTC)一直被困在 84,000 美元和 82,000 美元的高位之间,买家难以推高价格。尽管市场仍持谨慎态度,但历史模式和数据表明有突破的可能性。

根据分析师 Rekt Capital 3 月 18 日在 X 上的帖子,比特币当前的价格走势与 2021 年 6 月的走势相似。在急剧下跌之后,比特币被困在 21 周和 50 周 EMA 之间。

最终,比特币价格在 7 月底突破,并在 11 月创下历史新高。目前,比特币再次处于同一区间,引发人们猜测历史可能会重演。

Rekt Capital further observed that Bitcoin’s selling pressure has also been decreasing. Recent sell-offs have come with lower-than-usual volume, showing that sellers are losing momentum. This has opened the door for buyers, making last week a buyer-dominated period. Strong uptrends have resulted from similar shifts in previous cycles.

据 CryptoQuant 称,比特币目前正处于去杠杆阶段,这涉及到市场过剩杠杆的消除。在过去,这些阶段创造了短期至中期的买入机会,为复苏铺平了道路。之前的市场周期表明,杠杆重置后,比特币的价格通常会出现强劲反弹。

The rise in the 3-6 month UTXO age bands, which indicate how long Bitcoin has been held, is another important indicator. CryptoQuant’s Mar. 15 analysis revealed that number of coins in this category is rising, much like what happened during the mid-2024 correction.

This suggests more investors are holding their Bitcoin instead of selling, reducing the available supply. In previous cycles, this type of accumulation has played a big role in forming market bottoms and driving new rallies.

尽管有这些积极迹象,但美国比特币 ETF 的资金流出已连续第五周持续,这是有记录以来最长的流出时间。2024 年 4 月,四周的资金流出创下了之前的纪录。

尽管这表明短期内存在不确定性,但如果抛售压力下降且累积量增加,比特币可能将出现重大波动。如果之前的模式继续下去,突破可能很快就会发生。

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