策略股票较 11 月高点暴跌 50%，但 Saylor 继续大举押注 BTC

The crypto market remained on edge on Thursday as some investors booked profits following the recent double-digit gains. Bitcoin (BTC) price was trading at $102,700, while Ethereum (ETH) fell from this week’s high of $2,700 to $2,500. Other top altcoins like Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Shiba Inu (SHIB) fell by over 4%. Bitcoin Ethereum, crude oil price chart | Source: crypto.news How falling crude oil prices may boost the crypto market A potential catalyst for Bitcoin and other altcoins is the ongoing crash in crude oil prices. Brent, the international benchmark, fell for the second consecutive day, reaching a low of $63. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate declined to $60.20, its lowest level since May 9. Both benchmarks have fallen more than 25% from their highest levels this year. Prices dropped as Donald Trump hinted that his administration was making progress in indirect talks with Iran. A potential agreement would see Iran halt its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. A likely outcome would be Iran increasing oil exports at a time when global supplies are already rising. At its last meeting, the OPEC+ cartel voted to increase production for the second consecutive month. You might also like:Bitcoin price slips, but pattern suggests calm before the storm Falling crude oil prices could support the crypto market by lowering gasoline costs, which would reduce inflation. In a post on Wednesday, the White House noted that gasoline prices had declined for three consecutive months. Lower inflation would, in turn, give the Federal Reserve room to start cutting interest rates—an outcome that would benefit cryptocurrencies and other risk-on assets. For example, Bitcoin and most altcoins surged in 2020 and 2021 as the Fed aggressively slashed rates. Economic data released this week showed that US inflation ticked lower in April. The headline Consumer Price Index dropped from 2.4% in March to 2.3%, while the core inflation remained at 2.8%. Trade truce to boost crypto and stocks The other macro catalyst for the crypto market is the recent trade truce between the US and China. This truce has led the two countries to lower their tariffs dramatically. The US lowered its levies from 145% to 30%, while China brought its levies from 125% to 10%.  The U.K. also reached a trade agreement with the U.S. last week and is negotiating similar deals with other countries, including the European Union. As a result, analysts now believe that trade and recession risks have subsided. In a note on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin lowered his recession odds and boosted his S&P 500 forecast to $6,100 from $5,100.  A strong stock market would also benefit cryptocurrencies due to the positive correlation that often exists between the two asset classes. You might also like:Why the US-China trade truce could be Bitcoin’s biggest macro tailwind since 2020

Binance published its updated monthly proof of reserves report for May 2025, showing the exchange’s backed assets remain over 100% for major tokens such as Bitcoin, USDT and Ethereum. On May 8, the leading crypto exchange released the latest update for its crypto reserves, featuring the stats of the crypto exchange’s backed reserves for 37 crypto assets. The report revealed that the exchange controls 616,886.378 BTC (BTC), which stands at a 102.06% ratio compared to customer’s net assets which are currently at 604,886.378 BTC. The same can be said about the exchange’s backed USDT (USDT) reserves. At the moment, Binance holds more than 29.6 billion USDT, exceeding its customer-held assets by a 102.07% ratio or around 600 million USDT. Meanwhile, the exchange’s Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL) and Ripple (XRP) reserves also remain well above the 1:1 ratio. The platform currently controls 5,289,954 ETH, exceeding its customer net balances by more than 8,000 ETH. Its Solana-backed reserves also graze over the 100% mark by 0.01% or equal to a 2,000 SOL surplus. Binance’s Ripple reserves remain at a 102.99% ratio or around 2.6 billion XRP. The exchange’s reserves surpass customer-held assets by nearly 76 million XRP. Binance’s latest proof of reserves report for major assets, May 8, 2025 | Source: Binance You might also like:OKX publishes proof of reserves with over 100% assets held for 22 cryptocurrencies The platform’s largest backed asset remain Binance USD (BUSD), maintaining a reserve amounting to more than double its customer balances or approximately 206.04%. The crypto exchange has long-ceased support for it USD-pegged stablecoin since it closed its U.S. markets in 2023. However, in February this year the exchange’s U.S. branch reopened USD transactions for the first time since it closed down the service in June 2023 due to the SEC lawsuit. Moreover, the exchange holds more than 8.6 billion USDC (USDC) in its reserves or equal to 152.19% of it customer-held assets. The platform’s customer net balances hold 5.6 billion USDC at the moment. Meanwhile, its FDUSD (FDUSD) reserves stand at a ratio of 107.84%, exceeding customer asset holdings by more than 82 million FDUSD. Proof of reserves is information relayed by centralized crypto exchange’s to assure customers that their deposits are fully backed by on-chain reserves. The crypto exchange introduced this concept after the bankruptcy of FTX to demonstrate its readiness to cover any volume of withdrawal requests. You might also like:Binance adds monitoring tag to MOVE following market maker scandal and rebrand

在大幅反弹之前，一场残酷的抛售抹去了 ETH 的弱势头寸。随着新关税、鲸鱼行动和网络升级，以太坊是否准备好迎接 2025 年的牛市？ 目录外交谈判激发 ETH 复苏以太坊生态系统更新以太坊能够守住自己的地位吗？以太坊价格预测：下行趋势会逆转吗？ 外交谈判激发 ETH 复苏 以太坊 (ETH) 的价格经历了几天的动荡，2 月 3 日急剧下跌至 2,150 美元，为 2024 年 9 月以来的最低水平。此次下跌是由于金融市场对 2 月 1 日生效的美国新关税做出反应。 美国对来自加拿大和墨西哥的进口产品征收 25% 的关税，对中国商品征收 10% 的关税，导致包括加密货币在内的全球市场出现不确定性。 几个小时后，外交努力就开始了。加拿大总理贾斯汀·特鲁多在 X 上宣布，他已与唐纳德·特朗普进行了交谈，并确保暂时暂停征收 30 天的关税，同时两国正在努力达成更广泛的边境安全协议。 我刚刚与特朗普总统进行了一次愉快的通话。加拿大正在实施我们耗资 13 亿美元的边境计划——用新的直升机、技术和人员加强边境，加强与美国伙伴的协调，并增加资源以阻止芬太尼的流动。几乎……— 贾斯汀·特鲁多（@JustinTrudeau） 2025 年 2 月 3 日 墨西哥也采取了类似的做法，总统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆确认，作为正在进行的边境安全讨论的一部分，关税将暂停一个月。 随着这些发展，市场情绪有所改善，截至 2 月 4 日撰写本文时，以太坊的价格已反弹至 2,700 美元。 在特朗普停止对加拿大和墨西哥征收关税后，ETH 一度触及 2,900 美元。大约在同一时间，埃里克·特朗普在 X 上发帖称，“在我看来，现在是增持 $ETH 的好时机。” 在我看来，现在是添加 $ETH 的好时机。 不久之后，该项目解除了 19,423 个 Lido Staked Ether (stETH) 的质押并将其转换为 ETH，然后花费 500 万美元的 USDC (USDC) 以 2,738 美元的价格购买了 1,826 个 ETH。目前，World Liberty Financial 仍在 9 个已知钱包中持有价值 9662 万美元的各种资产。 在这些发展背景下，富达于 2 月 4 日采取大胆举措，购买了价值 4975 万美元的以太坊。 最新消息：富达投资购买了价值 4975 万美元的以太坊。pic.twitter.com/hCrQUSrA8w— Whale Insider (@WhaleInsider) 2025 年 2 月 4 日 尽管有机构购买和价格回升，但 ETH 在过去一周仍下跌了 15%，仍比 2021 年 11 月创下的 4,890 美元的历史高点低近 45%。 这一变化还使更复杂的去中心化应用程序能够顺利运行，从而有利于不断发展的金融应用程序、NFT 平台和链上服务生态系统。 然而，虽然提高 gas 限制有助于提高交易能力，但它并不能解决以太坊在成本和速度方面的核心限制。 例如，以太坊每天处理 100 万到 150 万笔交易，而 Solana 则处理 6000 万到 6500 万笔交易。两者之间的差异很大，Solana 不仅处理的交易数量呈指数级增长，而且成本仅为后者的一小部分，这使得长期可扩展性成为一项持续的挑战。 以太坊的市场地位和竞争挑战 为了解决这些问题，以太坊即将于 2025 年初上线的 Pectra 升级预计将进一步增强网络可扩展性，特别是对于第 2 层解决方案。此次升级的一个关键部分是将 blob 目标从 3 个增加到 6 个。 随着比特币在流动性和投资者兴趣方面继续占据主导地位，以太坊的相对估值仍然受到关注。 以太坊能够守住自己的地位吗？ 2 月 3 日，以太坊价格跌至 2,150 美元，这不仅是对更广泛的经济不确定性的反应，也是市场重置，清除了以太坊未平仓合约中积累的过度杠杆。 一位分析师指出，“以太坊上有很多垃圾低质量的杠杆多头未平仓，当价格触及 2100 区域时，这些多头就被平仓了”，他强调未平仓合约减少了 40 亿美元，最终有助于稳定市场。 这次暴跌可能是以太坊发生的最好的事情。 虽然外交决议暂时缓解了局势，但不确定性仍然存在，尤其是围绕潜在报复措施或进一步经济限制。如果全球流动性收紧或风险情绪减弱，以太坊维持复苏的能力可能会面临挑战。 另一个值得关注的因素是以太坊相对于比特币 (BTC) 保持市场主导地位的能力。ETH/BTC 比率一直呈下降趋势，反映出投资者偏好转向比特币，比特币的机构流动性更强。 以太坊即将推出的 Pectra 升级和最近的 gas 限制增加可以支持其生态系统的增长，但这些改进需要转化为用户和开发者的切实利益，才能维持长期需求。 以太坊价格预测：下行趋势会逆转吗？ 最新的市场重置清除了数十亿美元的杠杆头寸，使以太坊处于更健康的地位，但接下来会发生什么取决于多种因素——可扩展性升级、采用、竞争和经济状况。 他指出，2023 年和 2024 年的历史情况引发了急剧逆转，建议交易者应关注以太坊对关键支撑位的反应。 2027 年以太坊价格预测 如果以太坊继续引领智能合约领域并且扩展解决方案日趋成熟，ETH 可能会在 2027 年出现上涨。 DigitalCoinPrice 预测平均价格为 9,580 美元，峰值为 10,098 美元，而 Changelly 的预测更为强劲，预测平均价格为 12,316 美元，最高价格为 14,527 美元。 与此同时，DeFi 的增长、NFT 创新以及以太坊在现实世界资产代币化中的作用可能会为 ETH 带来新的需求。

Pi Network price has staged a strong comeback in the past ten days as the crypto market stabilizes and investors buy the dip. Pi coin (PI), the viral tap-to-earn coin, rose to a high of $0.755 on Monday, its highest level since March 29. It has soared by 92% from its lowest level this year.  Before this rebound, the coin was in a strong downtrend as many pioneers started selling their coins. Pioneers are users who were mining the coin before the mainnet launch in April.  It also dropped after centralized exchange listings became elusive and as concerns about its dilution continued. As shown below, over 1.56 billion tokens will be unlocked in the next 12 months, leading to more dilution. 代币解锁时间表 | 来源：PiScan 您可能还喜欢：Paycoin 将于 4 月 30 日推出加密货币支持的万事达卡 Pi Network 价格已形成风险图表模式 圆周率图 | 来源：crypto.news The ongoing Pi recovery happened as Bitcoin (BTC) and some other coins remained resilient. Bitcoin has held steady above $80,000 even as the stock market and the fear and greed index plunged.  四小时图显示，在形成下降楔形形态后，该货币也出现飙升。该形态由两条下降和汇合的趋势线组成，当两条线接近其汇合水平时，就会发生看涨突破。 从积极的一面来看，该货币已突破 50 周期指数移动平均线，表明其正在积聚动力。它也已突破伍迪枢轴点。 然而，潜在反转的迹象正在显现。价格目前已形成上升楔形形态，下行趋势线连接自4月5日以来形成的较高低点。在技术分析中，上升楔形被认为是可靠的看跌形态。 此外，看跌背离似乎正在形成。百分比价格振荡指标即将出现看跌交叉，而相对强弱指数则已开始呈下降趋势。 因此，Pi 可能面临大幅回调的风险，下一个关键支撑位是历史最低点 0.3979 美元，比当前水平低约 47%。 话虽如此，如果价格成功突破伍迪枢轴点的第一个阻力位0.8610美元，这种看跌预期将失效。在这种情况下，下一个上行目标将是具有重要心理意义的1美元关口，比今日价格高出约32%。 您可能还喜欢：谷歌将为寻求在欧盟投放加密货币广告的企业制定新规则

Nansen 分析师表示，由于关税相关不确定性风险持续到第二季度，加密货币市场可能继 3 月份的近期调整后再次面临下跌。 随着行业进入四月，比特币（BTC）和更广泛的加密货币市场可能面临另一次下跌，因为围绕关税和美国贸易政策的不确定性可能会导致进一步的波动。 根据 Nansen 分析师的说法，市场有可能在 4 月 2 日之后的几周内面临另一次调整。事实上，研究人员认为，在此日期之后再次出现价格下跌的可能性为 70%。 美国经济政策不确定性指数 30 天移动均线 vs BB 全球贸易政策不确定性指数 30 天移动均线 | 来源：Nansen President Donald Trump had earlier promised to roll out new tariffs on April 2, calling it a key moment for the economy just weeks after the last round shook up markets and sparked recession worries. In a recent interview with crypto.news, Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen, shared her outlook on the market, stating that after a brief correction following April 2, she expects the market to stabilize and pave the way for future growth. “In my main scenario, 70% subjective likelihood, I expect another leg down in crypto prices after April 2 after we reached a local bottom in mid-March. After this second correction, I expect we will be bottoming for the rest of the year (continuation of the bull market and revisit of the ATHs for BTC).” 奥雷莉·巴特尔 然而，加密货币市场并非一片黯淡。虽然不排除再次下跌的可能性，但 Barthere 认为，在这次调整之后，比特币可能会反弹，受益于有利的宏观环境，包括美国加密货币的日益普及以及缺乏衰退信号。不过，Barthere 对剩下的 30% 仍持谨慎态度，“这要看我们已经触底还是美国股市和加密货币只是死猫反弹，”她说。 “对于剩下的 30%：如果我们已经触底，或者这只是美国股票和加密货币的死猫反弹（如果出现经济衰退，这不是我的基本情况，我认为美国的增长速度只是从 3% 放缓到 1.5-2%）。” 奥雷莉·巴特尔 你可能还喜欢：Bitcoin slips another 4% after Trump targets Canadian steel, aluminum with tariffs Uncertainty may last well into Q2 The tariff situation has been a significant driver of market volatility, with the U.S. policy uncertainty index reaching new highs. Trade discussions have become a key source of investor anxiety, but Nansen believes that uncertainty could peak soon. 正如财政部长贝森特最近指出的那样，许多美国贸易伙伴已经在谈判降低自己的贸易壁垒，这有助于平息一些担忧。甚至特朗普最近也暗示在某些情况下可能会有关税“豁免”。但正如巴特雷指出的那样，虽然这些谈判可能会给美国带来长期增长利益，但挥之不去的不确定性可能会持续到第二季度。 “目前，我认为我们正在经历加密货币牛市中的调整。为什么我认为这仍然是一个牛市：1) 美国加密货币监管和加密货币制度化正在不断取得进展，2) 美国实际增长放缓但并未出现‘衰退’迹象。当然，这是我唯一的主要预测，我将继续关注数据和市场，寻找这是正确解读的迹象。” 奥雷莉·巴特尔 正如巴特雷所说，我们有“一半的机会已经度过了贸易政策不确定性的高峰”，并补充说，这些关税谈判的真正影响可能要到年中才会完全明朗。她在研究报告中写道：“我们仍然认为这种不确定性高峰更有可能在 4 月至 6 月之间出现，尤其是随着美国开始讨论减税方案。” 根据 Nansen 的研究，这种不确定性可能引发比特币和美国股市的另一次短期调整。 没有经济衰退的迹象 不过，我们仍有理由保持乐观。报告提到，技术面显示出令人鼓舞的迹象。“逢低买入的投资者正在买入 BTC 和美国股票，”Barthere 表示，并补充说现货比特币 ETF 录得“连续七天的净流入，这是加密货币价格达到峰值以来的首次。” 不管怎样，很明显市场仍然保持谨慎。很多人都在质疑加密货币牛市是否仍在继续，或者我们是否即将到达顶峰。如果历史可以作为参考，那么经济不确定时期往往与市场低迷相伴，这让投资者更加谨慎。 标普全球快讯 美国 PMI 与国内生产总值 | 资料来源：Nansen 上周市场情绪陷入极度恐慌，一些投行将美国今年陷入衰退的可能性上调至 40%，但硬性经济数据缓解了这些担忧。最新的美国 3 月 PMI 预览报告显示，该指数为 53.5，为三个月来最高，表明年增长率为 1.9%。不过，由于 1 月和 2 月的数据较弱，整个季度的增长率较低，为 1.5%。 Barthere emphasized that so far, there’s no hard evidence of a recession as “most of the data weakness has been in sentiment indicators, while hard economic data has held up.” She added that “there is no evidence of recession at this stage, so no evidence that we have transitioned to a bear market.” While the coming months may bring more ups and downs, Nansen’s report suggests that the overall bull market is still in play. As Barthere puts it, the market is “likely to see a correction, but then we’ll bottom out for the rest of the year and head towards new highs.” 阅读更多：通胀降温，加密市场持平，特朗普关税引发不确定性