比特币达到 100 万美元？JAN3 首席执行官预测白宫支持将加快进度

Has Bitcoin price prediction turned a corner, with real on-chain movement toward $175,000 — or are we skipping steps by already entertaining BlackRock’s $700,000 thesis? Table of ContentsBTC nears $98K as bullish momentum reignitesEconomy cools down, BTC heats upBitcoin’s bull case builds2025 Bitcoin price predictions: breakout or blowoff top? BTC nears $98K as bullish momentum reignites After weeks of sideways movement, Bitcoin (BTC) nearly touched $98,000 on May 2, reaching a high of $97,905. As of this writing, BTC is trading around $97,650, slightly below its peak but still holding most of its recent gains. BTC price chart | Source: crypto.news From a historical standpoint, Bitcoin has recovered more than 24% from its February low of $78,200 and more than 30% from the early April dip near $75,000. The rally places Bitcoin at its highest level in over two months and points to a potential reversal of the decline triggered by February’s macroeconomic turbulence.  Much of that weakness had stemmed from policy-related jitters, particularly after President Trump’s trade-centric statements unsettled parts of the market. One key development supporting the rebound is aggressive buying by treasury-focused companies. In the U.S., Strategy added to its Bitcoin reserves on Apr. 28 with a fresh purchase worth $1.4 billion. According to its latest press release, the firm now holds 553,555 BTC, acquired at a total cost of $37.90 billion with an average purchase price of around $68,459 per coin. With Bitcoin now trading near $97,000, Strategy’s holdings are comfortably in profit, translating to a year-to-date unrealized gain of roughly $5.8 billion. Meanwhile in Asia, Japanese firm Metaplanet is quietly building its own treasury strategy, modeled loosely on companies like Strategy. On May 2, the company issued another ¥3.6 billion in bonds, which is roughly $23 million in U.S. dollar terms. This was its 12th bond issuance, and the capital is being used to expand its Bitcoin holdings. Metaplanet has already surpassed the 5,000 BTC mark and has publicly stated that it aims to reach 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025. Amid all this, it is time to examine what is happening with BTC, how experts are interpreting this move, and where Bitcoin price prediction stands now. Economy cools down, BTC heats up The recent economic data paints a picture of deceleration rather than expansion. The ADP jobs report for April showed that only 62,000 private sector jobs were added, missing expectations of 108,000 and falling well below March’s 147,000 print, marking the weakest monthly gain since July 2024 and adding to concerns that the labor market may be cooling. Alongside the employment miss came an unexpected contraction in GDP. The first official estimate for Q1 2025 showed GDP shrinking by 0.3%, against expectations for a modest 0.2% increase. Much of this decline is tied to a sharp rise in imports early in the year, as businesses rushed to front-load inventories ahead of President Trump’s tariff implementation. Basic economics suggests that when imports rise and exports do not increase proportionally, the net effect is negative for GDP, and that is exactly what played out. The imbalance alone shaved off nearly 5% from overall growth, compounding the impact of a decline in government spending, another rare drag not seen since 2022. Meanwhile, inflation appears more persistent than forecast. The Core PCE price index, embedded within the GDP data, rose by 3.5% year-on-year, higher than the 3.1% that was expected, complicating the outlook for interest rate adjustments and potentially extending the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance. In parallel, commodity and crypto markets are showing divergent responses to these macro signals. Gold, which had rallied above $3,500 per ounce by Apr. 21 in response to the new tariffs and broader geopolitical tension, has since retraced by nearly 10%, now trading around $3,200. Bitcoin, in contrast, is gradually building momentum. At the time gold topped out, BTC was still trading around $87,000, and since then, it has gained sustainably, climbing to a two-month high. The shift in capital away from gold and into Bitcoin may not be accidental, as investors often look for alternative stores of value when traditional safe havens start to lose steam, and Bitcoin’s fixed supply and rising institutional demand appear to be supporting that role. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a central force in this trend. Since Apr. 21, these products have recorded inflows in eight of the last nine trading days, with cumulative net additions totaling over $4.16 billion. Nearly half of these inflows came in just two days, Apr. 22 and 23, suggesting that demand is not only steady but also surging. However, with rising prices also comes the potential for selling. On-chain data from Glassnode shows that many long-term holders are now sitting on over 350% in unrealized gains. If Bitcoin continues to climb, some of these holders may decide to lock in profits, and additionally, a concentration of coins sits near current spot prices, which may serve as resistance if enough investors choose to exit at break-even points. Bitcoin’s bull case builds Crypto and financial analysts are now aligning that Bitcoin is showing strength, but whether that strength holds depends on how it behaves around specific price zones and how market participants react to growing profit margins. Robert Breedlove, a long-term Bitcoin thinker and founder of the What is Money podcast, pointed to the cost of production as a reliable foundation for identifying cycle lows. I don’t normally speculate on short-term #Bitcoin price action — but some friends of mine have provided some fascinating perspectives that I want to share.🧵 👇Bitcoin is up 25% from its April 9th low and there’s a handful of indicators that show a major bull market around the… pic.twitter.com/IIHGyDGzES— Robert ₿reedlove (@Breedlove22) May 1, 2025 Citing research from Blockware, he explained that the industry-wide average cost to mine Bitcoin has historically aligned with key bottoms. These include moments such as March 2020 and December 2018.  Bitcoin has now moved above that cost level again. When Bitcoin trades well above production cost, miners are more likely to hold rather than sell, which can reduce short-term supply pressure and create a more bullish environment. Meanwhile, PlanB, known for creating the stock-to-flow model, highlighted a different signal. He noted that Bitcoin’s current price has moved above its 2-year and 5-month realized prices. Realized price up2-year realized price up5-month realized price upBitcoin price higher than all realized pricesBull market continues🚀 pic.twitter.com/dGzWWiKdfA— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) May 1, 2025 Realized price represents the average value of all coins based on when they were last moved. When the market trades above those levels, it usually reflects strength. In his words, all realized prices are now below Bitcoin’s current level, which suggests the uptrend remains intact. Historically, this structure has only formed during active bull phases, especially when short-term holders begin to re-enter. Technical analyst Rekt Capital offered a more detailed roadmap. His view is that if Bitcoin follows the same path it did in late 2024, it may first reject around $99,000, hold support at $93,500, break through the $97,000 to $99,000 range, and only then approach the $104,500 zone. #BTCThis idea was first explored in mid-October 2024 and actually ended up playing outIt would be poetry if Bitcoin repeated history and followed through on the same path in this current Range as wellFor history to repeat, BTC would need to:• Reject from $99k• Hold… https://t.co/1kdRzg0wRg pic.twitter.com/5h0GmEgTfq— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) May 1, 2025 If that holds, the structure could support a run toward new highs. His view is about observing whether Bitcoin holds key support after testing resistance. If any of these levels fail to hold, that would signal a shift back into range-bound behavior rather than breakout territory. Tomas, a markets analyst who studies long-term patterns across risk assets, brought attention to recent price behavior in broader financial markets. 🤔 'Long lower wicks' everywhere – it looks bullish, but is it actually bullish historically?April has been a crazy and historic month in markets.We've had a huge tariff shock, followed by a gradual tariff walk back.So, we've been left with some tasty looking monthly… pic.twitter.com/HyddPd7Dgu— Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) April 30, 2025 He focused on the S&P 500’s monthly chart, which showed a 14% lower wick in April. A long lower wick means prices dropped during the month but were quickly bought back up. He noted that while such candles often suggest bullish pressure, historical data tells a mixed story. Out of 11 similar wick formations since 1950, only 5 marked the actual low, while the rest were followed by further declines, sometimes by as much as 20%. The implication is that sharp rebounds do not guarantee that the correction is over, and they may simply indicate a short-term reset in sentiment. Taken together, the analysis shows that Bitcoin’s fundamentals are strengthening, but price structure still matters. Key support and resistance levels remain in play. 2025 Bitcoin price predictions: breakout or blowoff top? According to CryptoQuant’s rally tracker, Bitcoin is sitting at the edge of a possible breakout. The current ratio, a combination of NUPL and MVRV metrics, stands at roughly 0.8, a level that has historically marked the start of previous rallies. Bitcoin is warming up: Three scenarios that could shape the next rally“As of today, the on-chain momentum is in the 'start' rally zone (Ratio ≈ 0.8 / 80%). Let's examine three scenarios for the next six months:1. Optimistic (Bull)If the Ratio breaks through 1.0 and holds… pic.twitter.com/SlWx2UGg27— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 1, 2025 If that ratio climbs above 1.0 and stays there, the firm expects BTC to move toward the $150,000 to $175,000 range, tracking similar momentum bursts seen in 2017 and 2021. If it stalls between 0.8 and 1.0, Bitcoin may hover within a broader band of $90,000 to $110,000. A drop below 0.75, however, could invite another round of profit-taking from short-term holders, pulling the price back toward $70,000 to $85,000. That’s the less likely case, but not off the table. Meanwhile, the 2025 BTC price predictions are anything but aligned. The lowest among major forecasts comes from 10x Research, which pegs a top near $122,000, driven mainly by technicals and momentum cycles. 2025 Bitcoin price predictions have been rolling in—and they’re staggering.Not from influencers, but from banks, hedge funds, and asset allocators.I take these with a fine grain of salt, but interesting nonetheless.Here’s what they’re projecting—and why: 🧵 pic.twitter.com/yte1LhjZmI— Alec Bakhouche (@Alec_Bitcoin) May 1, 2025 At the other end is BlackRock’s scenario: $700,000, a figure that hinges on a hypothetical where just 2% to 5% of global institutional portfolios allocate to Bitcoin. Between those poles are a cluster of targets that fall in the $180,000 to $285,000 range. Standard Chartered expects $200,000, citing macro hedging behavior and growing institutional flows. H.C. Wainwright places its bet at $225,000, focused on the post-halving supply crunch combined with a clearer regulatory environment. Quant-driven outlooks, like the one from 21st Capital, offer a broader band of $135,000 to $285,000 based on modeled volatility and historical cycle markers. Tom Lee of Fundstrat and Anthony Pompliano both expect Bitcoin to reach $250,000, but for different reasons. Lee ties his forecast to liquidity expansion, while Pompliano sees it as a response to a structural demand shock as capital looks for stores of value outside traditional systems. What stands out is that no forecast assumes a return to the previous cycle structure. Bitcoin is now shaped by factors that did not exist in past cycles, including ETF inflows, treasury strategies from listed firms, and a changing macro backdrop. As things stand, a sustained move above $100,000 will likely require fresh capital and continued buying from new entrants. At the same time, long-term holders are sitting on large unrealized profits. If the price climbs too quickly, selling pressure could increase. The next few months may determine whether Bitcoin builds a solid base for higher valuations or faces resistance from within. As always, trade wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Ondo Finance has reclaimed a $3 billion market capitalization following a strong rally partly fueled by a recent meeting with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. According to crypto.news price tracker, the protocol’s market capitalization has reached $3.16 billion, marking the first time it has crossed the $3 billion level since Mar. 8. As of this writing, Ondo (ONDO) is trading at about $1.01, up 16% from the previous day. The 24-hour trading volume has surged by 147% to over $600 million, pointing to the rising interest in the project. The price increase coincided with reports that Ondo Finance’s team met with the SEC to present a plan for tokenizing U.S. financial assets. As reported by crypto.news on Apr. 24, the firm’s leadership team joined legal representatives from Davis Polk & Wardwell to discuss how traditional financial regulations might apply to tokenized securities. The meeting also covered important subjects like legal registration, broker-dealer regulations, and market supervision. The team suggested possible sandbox initiatives or regulatory exemptions to encourage innovation while protecting investors. The news appears to have had a positive impact on the market.  You might also like:Aethir launches Batch 6 of its $100M ecosystem fund with a focus on RWAs With significant volume, ONDO has now surpassed the $1.00 mark, and the price action is trending above important short- and mid-term moving averages. Rising demand is indicated by the relative strength index, which is currently at 65. Other indicators, such as momentum and moving averages, suggest a short-term uptrend, and the moving average convergence/divergence is in bullish territory. ONDO price analysis. Credit: crypto.news But not every indicator is in agreement. A more cautious stance is still reflected in longer-term moving averages, particularly the 200-day trendlines. If momentum holds, ONDO could continue to rise as it is still 53% below its peak of $2.14. Read more:Cardano advances in RWAs as Genius Yield approves milestone for asset tokenization

Plume, a blockchain platform purpose-built for Real World Asset Finance, has announced a strategic partnership with Soneium, the Ethereum Layer-2 network developed by Sony Block Solutions Labs.  The collaboration aims to bring real-world asset staking and yield directly to users in the Soneium ecosystem, leveraging Plume’s native interoperability layer, SkyLink, according to a note shared with crypto.news. The announcement details how SkyLink will serve as the technical bridge allowing yield from tokenized U.S. Treasuries, private credit, and other real-world assets to stream cross-chain into Soneium. For the 5.1 million users within the Soneium network, this opens direct access to institutional-grade yield products, without needing to leave their home ecosystem. “At Plume, we’re committed to advancing RWAs to grow the entire crypto ecosystem,” said Chris Yin, CEO of Plume. “We’re excited to partner with Soneium to accelerate previously inaccessible yield opportunities. The future of RWAfi isn’t about keeping assets siloed, but enabling real yield to move across chains.” You might also like:New report suggests over half of the U.S. millennials own crypto. What else did we learn? Soneium’s involvement  Sony Block Solutions Labs, a joint initiative between Sony Group Corporation and Web3 firm Startale Group, develop Soneium.  The blockchain is designed for consumer and creator use cases and is preparing to launch mini-apps through the LINE messaging platform.  Soneium has also partnered with Plume ecosystem participant Moca Network to expand into areas such as anime IP (likeSolo Leveling), gaming, and digital identity. “The ability to offer access to real-world yield through tokenized assets is a major step forward in making blockchain relevant for mainstream finance,” said Ryohei Suzuki, Director of SBSL. “This partnership with Plume unlocks a compelling new layer of value for our ecosystem and users.” With more than 180 projects already building on Plume, the network positions itself as the first full-stack RWA chain, offering EVM compatibility, a tokenization engine, and integrated financial infrastructure.  The partnership with Soneium is seen as a major step in Plume’s vision of creating an interconnected RWAfi network—enabling real-world assets and their yields to flow between different blockchains. PLUME is up 10% on the news, according to crypto.news data.  You might also like:WLFI-linked MOVE and Web3Port implicated in $38m token dump scandal

A United States resident has been sentenced to over 30 years in prison for sending cryptocurrency to support the Islamic State terrorist organization. Mohammed Azharuddin Chhipa, a 35-year-old from Springfield, Virginia, was handed a sentence of 30 years and four months by a federal judge on May 7.  According to the Department of Justice, Chhipa sent more than $185,000 to ISIS operatives over a three-year period, helping fund escape operations and combat efforts in Syria.  Prosecutors said he played a key role in moving funds through cryptocurrency to conceal their origins and avoid detection. Chhipa’s sentencing comes after a federal jury convicted him in December 2024 on one count of conspiracy to provide material support to a designated foreign terrorist organization and four counts of providing or attempting to provide such support. The DOJ described him as a key financial facilitator who used social media to raise money and then converted those funds into crypto before sending them to intermediaries in Turkey From there, the money was smuggled across the border into Syria to reach ISIS fighters and female supporters stuck in detention camps. You might also like:US government seizes crypto tied to Hamas terrorist financing The DOJ said Chhipa’s actions helped bolster ISIS’s operational capacity. His primary contact during the scheme was a British-born ISIS member based in Syria known for planning terror attacks and orchestrating breakouts. Prosecutors said Chhipa used various tactics to hide his activity, including misspelled email accounts and aliases when buying travel tickets, and even attempted to flee the U.S. during the investigation. He traveled through multiple countries, including Mexico, Guatemala, Panama, and Germany, before he was stopped in Egypt and returned to the U.S. under an Interpol Blue Notice. According to U.S. Attorney Erik S. Siebert, “Chhipa knowingly and persistently collected and provided a considerable amount of money to fund the violence of an organization bent on forcing their extremist ideology on others.” The May 7 sentencing is the latest in a growing series of U.S. enforcement actions targeting the use of cryptocurrency in terrorist financing. Authorities have ramped up efforts to dismantle digital funding networks linked to groups like ISIS, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.  Last month, the DOJ seized over $200,000 in cryptocurrency tied to Hamas operations, part of a broader scheme that laundered over $1.5 million since October 2024.  The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has also been actively targeting wallets associated with sanctioned entities. In April the agency, blacklisted eight crypto addresses used by the Houthis to fund arms purchases and evade sanctions. U.S. enforcement agencies continue to stress that disrupting financial pipelines is key to weakening terror groups’ capabilities. Read more:Lawmaker warns crypto miners in Chechnya will be treated like terrorists in 2025

比特币随宏观环境而动。如果美国劳动力数据表明疲软，美联储可能会介入，这可能会推高比特币价格。 由于宏观条件继续影响流动性和风险情绪，比特币（BTC）的下一步走势可能取决于即将公布的美国劳动力市场数据。 量化分析师本杰明·考恩 (Benjamin Cowen) 认为失业率将是一个关键因素，他预测如果失业率保持在 4.1%-4.2% 的范围内，比特币可能会追随去年的走势，在 2 月和 3 月上涨。然而，利率过高或过低都可能造成不确定性，影响债券收益率、美联储政策预期，并最终影响比特币的价格走势。 我认为#BTC 的决策时间将在下周，即劳动力市场数据发布之后。如果失业率为 4.1％ 或 4.2％，那么在我看来，#BTC 遵循去年的蓝图并在 2 月/3 月走高的可能性更高。如果失业率……pic.twitter.com/eu2ixFHj7d— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) 2025 年 1 月 31 日 1 月 10 日发布的最新劳动力市场报告显示，美国 12 月失业率从 11 月的 4.2% 略微下降至 4.1%。就业增长大幅超出预期，新增就业岗位 25.6 万个，而预期为 15.3 万个。强劲的劳动力市场通常会降低美联储降息的紧迫性，这可能会对比特币造成压力，因为更高的利率会收紧金融环境。 你可能还喜欢：《富爸爸》作者清崎预测比特币将挑战美元的主导地位 最近的失业救济申请也进一步加剧了形势的演变。截至 1 月 25 日当周，首次申请失业救济人数降至 207,000 人，低于预期的 220,000 人。 虽然裁员人数仍处于历史低位，但招聘速度有所放缓，这表明劳动力市场可能正在降温。如果下周的报告证实了这一趋势，可能会提高人们对货币宽松的预期——这通常有利于比特币等风险资产。 在此之中，美联储在自9月份以来共降息100个基点之后，承认通胀仍然处于一定水平，但在1月29日的政策会议上选择将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%的水平。 政治压力也加入其中，前总统唐纳德·特朗普批评美联储没有采取更积极的行动。特朗普推动促进国内能源扩张和放松管制的政策，同时将高通胀归咎于他所谓的央行对社会和环境问题的错误关注。 你可能还喜欢：特朗普称赞 DeepSeek 是积极的，但第二天美国官员却改变态度，将其归类为知识产权盗窃 与此同时，美国国债收益率下降，10 年期国债收益率下滑至 4.526%，2 年期国债收益率下滑至 4.213%，此前第四季度 GDP 增长率低于预期，为 2.3%，低于 2.5% 的预测。 较低的收益率通常会使比特币受益，因为它可以缓解金融环境并减少来自传统资产的竞争。然而，强于预期的就业报告可能会推高收益率，从而增强美元，降低风险资产的吸引力。 截至本文撰写时，比特币交易价格为 104,000 美元，正处于关键时刻。如果劳动力市场保持稳定但出现降温迹象，它可能为反弹提供理想的背景，与去年的趋势如出一辙。然而，任何一个方向的急剧偏离都可能引发波动。