2025-03-04 18:34:27
5

加密货币市场缩水逾 5000 亿美元,分析师警告“波动可能进一步加剧”

加密货币市场缩水逾 5000 亿美元,分析师警告“波动可能进一步加剧”

分析师警告称,由于关键的宏观经济发展正在引发投资者的避险情绪,加密货币市场未来可能面临加剧的波动。

加密货币市场一天内蒸发 5000 亿美元

根据 Kobeissi Letter 报道,加密货币市场在过去 24 小时内缩水了超过 5000 亿美元,比美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周末宣布建立战略加密货币储备之前的价值减少了约 1000 亿美元,该储备将由一篮子加密资产组成,其中比特币和以太坊为核心资产。


Analysts warn of ‘even wilder swings’ as crypto market sheds over $500b - 1
加密货币总市值——3 月 4 日 | 来源:TradingView

Analysts at The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that after Trump’s announcement on reserve plans, the global crypto market surged from $2.7 trillion to $3.1 trillion in just 10 hours. But within a day, all those gains vanished, dragging the market even lower to $2.6 trillion.

分析师表示,这一急剧逆转是“巨大的零售陷阱”,对看涨交易者造成了沉重打击,因为加密货币基金在 2 月底出现了创纪录的 26 亿美元流出,比 2024 年创下的纪录高出约 5 亿美元。

比特币(BTC)受到冲击,较公告前的水平下跌 3%,过去 12 小时内市值蒸发近 2500 亿美元,而以太坊(ETH)跌至 2,002 美元,较早前的反弹下跌 8%。

除了加密货币市场之外,标准普尔 500 指数下跌近 5%,而英伟达等科技股也出现暴跌。

Crypto no longer a safe haven

On the evening of March 3, Trump announced that the U.S. would slap a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico starting March 4, shutting down any hope for a last-minute deal to ease trade tensions. In response, both countries have promised to hit back. 

Tensions escalated further after China retaliated by raising tariffs on key U.S. imports by 10-15%, just as a 20% tariff on Chinese imports set to take effect the same day.

“The real driver here is the GLOBAL move towards the risk-off trade. As trade war tensions rise and economic policy uncertainty broadens, ALL risky assets are falling,” The Kobesi Letter wrote in an X post.

According to analysts, investors have lost their confidence in Bitcoin as a safe haven asset, and investors are instead opting for Gold. 

Since Jan. 1, the price of Gold has increased by 10%, while the price of BTC dipped nearly 10% over the same period.


Analysts warn of ‘even wilder swings’ as crypto market sheds over $500b - 2
黄金与比特币价格 | 资料来源:The Kobeissi Letter

分析师补充道:“加密货币不再被视为避风港。”

未来将出现更多波动

分析师警告称,未来几周加密货币可能面临“更剧烈的波动”。

值得注意的是,高盛的波动恐慌指数已从 12 月的 1.4 飙升至上周五的 9.1,目前已接近 10——这是上次重大市场冲击期间的水平。根据 Kobeissi 分析师的说法,这一飙升表明极端波动正在成为新常态。


Analysts warn of ‘even wilder swings’ as crypto market sheds over $500b - 3
Goldman’s’ volatility panic index | Souce: The Kobeissi Letter

Further, a Bank of America survey cited by them suggests that investors aren’t expecting Bitcoin to hold up well in the months ahead. Only 3% of respondents believe BTC would perform best in a full-scale trade war. In contrast, 58% view Gold as the top safe-haven asset for 2025.

However, Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, suggested in comments to crypto.news that the market reaction to the tariffs may have been an overreaction.

据他所说,“许多投资者已经预料到了这些走势”,并预计交易恢复时将出现一定程度的稳定。

梅纳告诉 crypto.news:“尽管存在短期波动,但加密货币行业的长期前景依然光明”,并补充说“有利于机构采用的更广泛的结构性趋势”仍然完好无损。

声明:文章不代表币特网观点及立场,不构成本平台的投资建议,转载联系作者并注明出处:然后加上这个内页的网址: https://m.bitcoin688.com/news/51202.html
回顶部