Solana 价格暴跌因反向投资者逢低买入而缓解

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has postponed its decision on the proposed Franklin XRP Fund, a spot XRP exchange-traded fund submitted by asset manager Franklin Templeton.  According to its most recent filing, the SEC has extended the review period to June 17, from the initial deadline of May 3. The SEC noted that additional time was required to assess the application and the associated regulatory concerns. Franklin Templeton, which manages over $1.5 trillion in assets, filed the proposal on Mar. 13, through the Cboe BZX Exchange. The SEC officially published the filing for public comment in the Federal Register on Mar. 19. Under current rules, the SEC can take up to 90 days to approve, deny, or extend its decision. In this case, it chose to delay. In the filing, the SEC noted: “The Commission finds it appropriate to designate a longer period within which to take action… so that it has sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change and the issues raised therein.” You might also like:CME Group plans to launch XRP futures on May 19 Despite growing market anticipation, XRP’s (XRP) price reacted with caution. XRP is currently trading around $2.22, showing little volatility and a noticeable drop in volume. As per crypto.news data, trading volume is down 32% in the last 24 hours, suggesting traders are waiting on clearer signals. At 55, the relative strength index indicates neutral momentum. XRP price analysis. Credit: crypto.news Moving averages present a more optimistic picture. XRP is currently trading above almost all significant short and mid-term moving averages. The moving average convergence/divergence suggests a potential upward push, but the majority of oscillators also show indecision. If bullish pressure persists and XRP recovers higher support above $2.30, the next resistance lies near $2.50, and a breakout could possibly target the $2.85–$3.00 area. On the other hand, XRP may decline toward $2.00 or, in the worst scenario, back to $1.85 if the current consolidation breaks downward. Read more:Can XRP price realistically jump to $1,000 as a pundit predicts?

CAR 代币价格飙升，但深度伪造警告和网站突然关闭引发了人们对这是否真正是一项政府支持的举措的质疑。 2 月 10 日，中非共和国做出意外举动，宣布推出自己的 memecoin（CAR）。 这一声明直接来自中非共和国总统福斯坦-阿尔尚热·图瓦德埃拉的官方 X 账户，他称该项目是一项旨在团结人民、支持国家发展和让中非共和国成为全球焦点的实验。 今天，我们启动 $CAR——一项实验，旨在展示像模因这样简单的东西如何能够团结人民，支持国家发展，并以独特的方式将中非共和国推向世界舞台。合同：7oBYdEhV4GkXC19ZfgAvXpJWp2Rn9pm1Bx2cVNxFpumpFaustin-Archange Touadera (@FA_Touadera) 2025 年 2 月 9 日 图瓦德埃拉的官方 X 账号于 2 月 10 日发布消息称，“今天，我们启动了 $CAR，这是一项实验，旨在展示如何通过像 meme 这样简单的东西来团结人民、支持国家发展，并以独特的方式将中非共和国推向世界舞台。” 他将这一举措与该国此前支持加密货币的立场联系起来，并指出他是第二位采用比特币（BTC）作为法定货币的世界领导人。 作为世界上第二位采用比特币作为法定货币的总统，我一直认识到加密货币的潜力及其在全球范围内的好处。有关 CAR Meme 的所有信息，请访问 https://t.co/kwd5NGxoZGFaustin-Archange Touadera (@FA_Touadera) 2025 年 2 月 9 日 memecoin 在基于 Solana (SOL) 的 Pump.fun 平台上推出，最初获得了热烈的市场反响。几个小时内，随着交易员纷纷参与被视为有史以来第一个国家 memecoin，其估值飙升。 然而，尽管政府支持的 meme 币的想法引起了极大的兴趣，但质疑声也很快随之而来。几个小时内，深度伪造指控、网站暂停和可疑域名注册开始让人们对该项目产生怀疑。 你可能还喜欢：公民公众和立法者正在接近特朗普模因币意外之财——派对结束了吗？ 公告和紧急警告 在人工智能检测工具分析了总统的声明视频后，人们对 memecoin 产生了怀疑。 一个深度伪造检测模型 Seferbekov 发现该视频由人工智能生成的概率为 82%，而另一个模型 Ensemble 也将其标记为可疑。然而，另外两个人工智能工具 Avatrify 和 Deepware 的检查器没有检测到篡改的迹象。 CT 和我的团队对 $CAR 保持谨慎3 天前在 namecheap 上注册的域名……看起来不像是总统或一个国家会做的事……不要让流动性从生态系统中被吸走……NFA — 我可能错了……但是🚩 pic.twitter.com/KnDaIywTXl 市场活动和波动性 尽管存在争议，CAR 代币在推出后仍大幅上涨，估值最高达到 5.27 亿美元。然而，截至 2 月 10 日撰写本文时，该代币的价值已降至 4.6 亿美元。 这场争议的时机至关重要，因为加密货币世界最近出现了大量欺诈性模因币发行的情况。 就在几天前，诈骗者劫持了马来西亚前总理马哈蒂尔·穆罕默德和 Solana DEX 聚合器 Jupiter 的 X 账户，以推广欺诈性的 memecoin。 这些策略的相似之处——出乎意料的高调支持、迅速关闭网站和突然暂停社交媒体——让许多人相信，CAR 可能是另一个引人注目的骗局。

Omni Network 已整合 Superstate 的代币化美国国债基金，并将其添加到其资产负债表中，作为优化资金管理的努力的一部分。 该互操作性协议于 2 月 17 日宣布与 Superstate 建立合作关系。 该公司计划利用 Superstate 的短期美国政府证券基金 USTB 作为其资金管理战略的一部分。由 OMNI 代币支持的 Omni Network 将使用代币化的国债资产来扩大其资产负债表。 这将帮助团队优化其财务管理策略“同时保持流动性和灵活性”。 Superstate 的 USTB 目前是价值 2.74 亿美元的代币化国债产品，为短期美国国债提供投资机会。该基金允许持有人有效管理资本，利用闲置资产赚取收益。 你可能还喜欢：DeFi 协议 Euler Finance 在 Sonic 上上线 资本效率低下和碎片化仍然是整个加密领域的主要挑战，这使得 USTB 等代币化资产成为一种有价值的工具。例如，Omni Network 将受益于实时流动性、持续定价和多链访问。 就在 Omni 与 USTB 整合的几天前，Superstate 扩展了多链接入，首先与现实世界的资产融资平台 Plume Network 合作。 今年早些时候，Omni Network 和 Plume 宣布合作，旨在开发一种高效的现实世界资产分销引擎。 此外，Omni Network 与去中心化 AI 网络 Allora 合作，利用人工智能优化现实世界资产的定价和管理。 你可能还喜欢：Superstate 利用 Plume Network 为 RWAfi 扩张提供支持

周一，以太坊价格跌至关键支撑位，在关键看涨图表模式失效后，进一步下跌的风险加大。 以太坊（ETH）跌至2146美元的低点，为去年8月以来的最低水平。与12月的高点相比，它已经下跌了约40%。 以太坊的价格挣扎源于该网络面临重大挑战。TokenTerminal 数据显示，以太坊不再是最赚钱的区块链网络。 今年到目前为止，以太坊产生的费用为 1.55 亿美元，落后于 Circle，后者的收入为 1.69 亿美元。与此同时，Solana、Tron、Jito 和 Tether 产生的费用分别为 2.61 亿美元、2.94 亿美元、3.03 亿美元和 4.14 亿美元。 以太坊也失去了其在去中心化交易所领域的长期主导地位。在过去七天里，建立在以太坊上的去中心化交易所处理了近 200 亿美元的交易，低于 BNB Chain 的 257 亿美元和 Solana 的 420 亿美元。 Tron（TRX）在稳定币交易量方面也超过了以太坊，这主要是因为其交易费用较低。 此外，现货以太坊交易所交易基金在华尔街的反响平平，自去年 9 月以来仅吸引了 27.6 亿美元的资金流入。相比之下，比特币基金已获得超过 400 亿美元的资金流入。

How are analysts interpreting Bitcoin’s $97K consolidation against rising global debt maturity, ETF flow trends, and the uncertain direction of interest rates in the second half of the year? Table of ContentsCrypto mirrors the tension but charts its own pathGlobal trade system under pressureETF flows mask deeper trendsNo past model fits this cycleMarket awaits a catalyst Crypto mirrors the tension but charts its own path The mood across global financial markets has turned visibly tense. What began as a focused concern around central bank decisions has morphed into a broader wave of uncertainty, shaped by conflicting macro indicators, uneven growth data, and investor hesitation.  The reintroduction of U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump’s administration has added another layer of friction. A particularly bold move, such as the 100% tariff on foreign films, has not only reignited trade war concerns but also signaled a shift back to protectionist rhetoric.  For investors who had grown accustomed to relative trade stability, this has raised new questions about supply chains, international cooperation, and the policy outlook heading into the second half of the year. Markets have already reacted. The S&P 500, which had gained steadily over the past few days, broke its streak as investors pulled back amid deteriorating macro signals.  In contrast, traditional safe-haven assets have seen rising inflows. Gold prices have edged upward, and Treasuries have gained traction again, a move often associated with risk aversion during economic softness.  Notably, the most recent GDP print disappointed expectations, while inflation has remained sticky around 3%, leaving the Federal Reserve in a difficult spot.  Rate cuts appear unlikely during Fed’s May 7 meeting, yet the tightening already in place may not be enough to shield against stagnation. Fed will announce its interest rate decision today.Markets pricing in a 95% probability that rates will be held steady pic.twitter.com/M0ZVOfQTZz— LANGERIUS (@langeriuseth) May 7, 2025 Jobless claims have begun ticking upward, and April’s CPI figures reflected consumer pressure that’s still far from easing.  The Treasury market’s absorption of a $42 billion 10-year bond sale is a notable development. It suggests institutional investors are repositioning for longer-term safety, likely preparing for potential policy missteps or a downturn that could surface without much warning. Amid all this, the crypto market has found itself responding with its own brand of volatility. Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high of nearly $109,000 in January, driven by ETF optimism, institutional inflows, and the broader narrative of crypto as a macro hedge.  But it wasn’t built on solid ground. Over the months that followed, BTC lost nearly 30% of its value before clawing back to around $97,000 as of this writing on May 7.  BTC price chart | Source: crypto.news BTC still remains a strong asset in terms of performance year-to-date, but the erratic price swings have forced both retail and institutional players to reassess their strategies. Let’s explore how current macroeconomic pressures, including recession risks, trade tensions, and monetary ambiguity are shaping investor behavior and what the coming months may hold for the crypto market. Global trade system under pressure A growing sense of macroeconomic fragility is beginning to shape investor expectations across asset classes. J.P. Morgan has placed the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 at 60%, reflecting heightened concern over the systemic strain within the financial ecosystem. Treasury markets continue to flash warning signs. The inversion of the 10-year and 3-month yield curve remains persistent, a traditional signal of recession risk.  Compounding the situation is the approaching maturity of over $6.5 trillion in the U.S. Treasury debt, a volume that could pressure liquidity and challenge the government’s refinancing capabilities in an already uncertain interest rate environment. Charlie Hu, co-founder of Bitlayer, views this convergence of rising debt obligations and monetary policy uncertainty as a pivotal fault line in global capital markets. “There are approximately $6.5 trillion USD worth of Treasury bonds approaching maturity in the coming months. The economic slowdown is putting pressure on the Fed’s interest rate and monetary policy decisions.” He adds that a prolonged period of elevated rates, coupled with the urgency to refinance, could rattle investor confidence. “If the market continues to experience high interest rates alongside a large volume of maturing debt that needs refinancing, the U.S. government will be forced to address the situation carefully — striking a balance between managing high inflation and high debt levels, the two biggest metrics influencing capital flow and investor behavior in global markets.” This mounting pressure extends beyond the U.S. economy. The International Monetary Fund has issued repeated warnings about trade protectionism and retaliatory tariffs, labeling them as headwinds for global growth.  Recent policy actions have disrupted established supply chains, slowing cross-border trade and weakening the short-term outlook for export-heavy economies. Amid these developments, the divergence between economic systems and behavioral responses has become more visible. Christian, founder of Infini, believes the disconnect is structural rather than cyclical. “We’re seeing three core dislocations: one, the cost of capital has reset higher but consumer and government behaviors haven’t fully adjusted. Two, global supply chains are attempting to regionalize under nationalist pressures, yet our systems are still priced for globalization. And three, fiat confidence is eroding slowly, but the alternatives, digital or commodity-backed systems, haven’t matured enough to absorb that flow.” Parallel concerns are surfacing around liquidity vulnerabilities. Tracy Jin, COO at MEXC, points to emerging fragilities in the bond market that could seep into broader risk asset pricing, including crypto. “We’re closely monitoring a synchronized bond sell-off across US and emerging markets, especially the ones triggered by either sticky inflation or a fiscal credibility crisis.” She notes that such scenarios, if left unchecked, could lead to a contraction in global liquidity and reduce the appetite for speculative assets. ETF flows mask deeper trends While traditional markets continue to react to inflation prints and central bank guidance, the crypto market is digesting a different cocktail, one that blends rising institutional interest with noticeable retail hesitation.  The gap between these investor classes is becoming increasingly evident, especially when viewed through the lens of ETF participation, derivatives trends, and sentiment data. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell into “Extreme Fear” territory in April, typically a bearish signal. Yet Bitcoin defied this mood and climbed back toward $98,000.  This dissonance between sentiment and price has puzzled retail investors but, according to Jin, can largely be explained by the nature of capital flows. “As Bitcoin approached $96,000, it underscores the bifurcation between sentiment and capital flows. ETF inflows from institutional channels have been a powerful counterforce to retail anxiety.” She believes that much of the current turbulence is driven externally rather than from within the crypto ecosystem. “We estimate that 60% of the current volatility can be accounted for by macro uncertainty, central bank ambiguity, and geopolitical risks. The rest can be accounted for from crypto-native elements, including miner capitulation post-halving and leveraged positioning in altcoins.” The mechanics of ETF flows themselves have added to the confusion. Greco argues that ETF activity tends to reflect market moves rather than anticipate them, often introducing a timing lag that distorts real-time analysis. “ETFs tend to mirror the broader market trend. During sharp declines, we typically see outflows, while strong rallies attract inflows. Many ETF products settle on a T+1 basis, meaning the reported flows usually correspond to the previous day’s activity.” From his perspective, institutional flows act more as accelerators of existing direction rather than as early indicators of reversal or breakout. Retail behavior, meanwhile, remains deeply reactive. Michael Cameron of Vanilla Finance highlights how crypto’s unique structure amplifies volatility during uncertain macro periods. “Crypto’s high liquidity makes it a prime target for rapid sell-offs during economic stress. Unlike real estate or bonds, cryptocurrencies can be sold instantly on exchanges, amplifying downward price movements. Whales are buying dips, and a dovish FED or softer CPI could spark a rebound.” Across the board, investors are parsing mixed signals. Institutional inflows may stabilize markets temporarily, but without clearer macro direction, both camps remain on edge, interpreting every data point, Fed speech, or CPI surprise as a possible turning point. No past model fits this cycle As recession probabilities rise and market uncertainty deepens, the question resurfaces, is crypto still a hedge, or has it been absorbed into the broader risk asset complex? Jin believes Bitcoin’s growing institutional base may support a more nuanced response than a simple correlation or detachment from traditional markets. “Bitcoin’s leverage lies in its maturing investor base, especially institutional participants via ETFs. As they could offer a partial buffer, we may see a nuanced decoupling. Broader equities could suffer a sharp pullback but Bitcoin could act less like a tech stock and more like a high-volatility hedge, especially if rate cut expectations increase.” While that interpretation allows for divergence under certain macro scenarios, others remain doubtful of a clean break. Greco points to the increasing overlap between crypto and traditional finance, driven by institutional adoption, as evidence that both systems are now deeply intertwined. “The general macro trends are usually similar. What really differs is the magnitude of the price swings between traditional finance and crypto, with the latter obviously experiencing much higher volatility in moments of high uncertainty. Looking at the past data point and the increasing commingling between the two markets, it looks unlikely that one sector might have a completely different pattern to the other.” Some argue that the framing of recession itself needs to be rethought. Christian suggests that Bitcoin should not be viewed as a counter-cyclical hedge, but rather as a monetary alternative built to respond to systemic failure. “A recession, in traditional terms, is a lagging indicator. But in first-principles terms, a recession is just a large-scale mispricing of risk and value, corrected through forced rebalancing. Bitcoin is what happens when a system opts out. It doesn’t need a soft landing — it is the hard alternative.” That framework gains sharper relevance when viewed through the lens of geopolitical shocks and prolonged policy failure. Cameron stresses that while Bitcoin may gain in the long term from failed monetary policy, it is not insulated from short-term market trauma. “The brief 2020 COVID recession saw crypto recover quickly due to stimulus and low rates, but a deeper, tariff-driven ‘Trumpcession’ could be different. Crypto has never endured a prolonged US recession since Bitcoin’s inception in 2009.” Market awaits a catalyst With the global macro backdrop still clouded by inflation, debt concerns, and geopolitical risk, market participants are shifting toward short-term caution while keeping one eye on longer-term opportunities.  Bitcoin has rallied nearly 25% over the past month, largely driven by institutional spot buying and ETF inflows. However, early signs of fatigue are beginning to show.  According to 10x Research, the Coinbase premium has dropped and funding rates have weakened, suggesting that momentum may be slowing.  The report notes that Bitcoin is now consolidating near the $95,000 level, with traders awaiting clearer signals from the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decisions. “This is not a time for blind risk-taking but tactical positioning with well-defined exposure,” the research states, advising investors to consider hedging strategies as volatility creeps back in. Cameron believes that while short-term weakness remains a concern, structural drivers continue to support long-term growth. He sees recession fears and ETF outflows contributing to current volatility, but also points to positive underlying trends. Jin echoes that sense of cautious optimism. She expects Bitcoin to remain in a wide range as the market digests policy and liquidity signals. “Bitcoin may trade in the $88,000–$100,000 range as the market digests macro signals and ETF flow data. Our year-end target remains cautiously bullish at $128,000, with the assumption of zero black swan event.” Still, visibility remains limited. Greco describes the current price zone as crucial. “The market is currently sitting at a crucial level that could shape sentiment over the coming weeks. A decisive break above the $94,000–$95,000 range could restore confidence in a sustained bullish trend.” However, he stops short of any definitive forecast, noting that the cycle has already deviated from historical patterns. “This one has already broken precedent by reaching a new all-time high before the halving, something never seen before.” Christian suggests that the dominant market variable going forward may not be rate decisions or inflation data, but trust. “The key variable now isn’t earnings or even rates. It’s trust. Trust in sovereign debt, in fiat, in central bank forward guidance. That trust has been bleeding.” He sees Bitcoin and stablecoins as systems increasingly filling the vacuum left by waning institutional credibility. As crypto enters the next phase of its market cycle, clarity will likely hinge on central bank action, global liquidity conditions, and the durability of institutional flows. In the meantime, the market remains in a holding pattern.  Summing it all up, risk is being recalibrated, conviction is being tested, and capital is watching for the next signal to move. Amid such fragile conditions, trade wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.