Dragonfly Capital 称，2024 年加密行业招聘人数激增，较 2023 年增长 80%

如果美国证券交易委员会批准 ETF，XRP 价格预测将上涨 1,500%。Ripple 最终能否达到 27 美元并突破阻力位？ 目录Ripple 的疯狂之旅XRP ETF 终于来了吗？XRP 的成败时刻即将来临XRP price prediction: Could history repeat itself? Ripple’s wild ride Ripple (XRP) has experienced a rollercoaster ride in recent months, capturing the market’s attention with large price swings and major regulatory developments. On Jan. 16, the token surged to a multi-year high of $3.39, fueled by strong market sentiment. However, the rally was short-lived. As of Feb. 17, XRP has pulled back to $2.68, marking a 21% decline from its January peak. It remains approximately 31% below its all-time high of $3.89, which was reached in January 2018. Despite this pullback, XRP remains one of the top-performing assets in the top 100, delivering an impressive 145% return over the past 90 days. This outpaces heavyweights like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), both of which have lost value during the same period. Amid these fluctuations, broader market forces are also at play. The election of President Donald Trump introduced a more crypto-friendly atmosphere in the U.S., with the Trump administration’s positive stance on digital assets boosting investor confidence. This, in turn, has contributed to the upward trajectory of crypto assets, including XRP. Additionally, the resignation of SEC Chair Gary Gensler has further fueled optimism, as market participants anticipate a more accommodating regulatory environment under the new SEC leadership of acting chair Mark Uyeda. With a mix of strong price action, regulatory intrigue, and shifting political winds, what can we expect from XRP? Let’s explore this further in our Ripple price prediction. Is the XRP ETF finally coming? Amid ongoing volatility and key developments, XRP has remained in the spotlight. A major turning point came on Feb. 13, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission formally acknowledged a filing from the New York Stock Exchange and Grayscale Investments for a spot XRP exchange-traded fund. The proposal outlines a plan to convert Grayscale’s existing $16.1 million XRP Trust into a fully tradable ETF, with Coinbase Custody Trust Company acting as the custodian and BNY Mellon handling administrative duties. Update: @NYSE & @Grayscale have filed to convert Grayscale's XRP trust into an ETF. The trust currently has ~$16 mln in assets. pic.twitter.com/QAufZoKDkA— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) January 30, 2025 SEC 的承认意味着审查过程已经正式开始，为 240 天内可能的批准或拒绝奠定了基础。 第一个关键截止日期定于 3 月中旬，标志着为期 45 天的审查期的开始。此后，SEC 可能会做出决定或延长审查期限，预计最终决定将于 2025 年 10 月中旬做出。 但 Grayscale 并不是唯一一家推动 XRP ETF 的公司。芝加哥期权交易所也为 Bitwise 的 XRP ETF 提交了 19b-4 申请，其他公司也在争相申请批准。与试图将现有信托转换为 ETF 的 Grayscale 不同，Bitwise 正在推出一只全新的基金。 🚨新消息：@CBOE 刚刚代表@BitwiseInvest 和@CanaryFunds 为他们的 $XRP ETF 提交了 19b-4s。19b-4 表格是发行人提交 S-1 表格后 ETF 审批流程的下一步。19b-4 表格基本上是请求 @SECGov 允许他们上市和交易……pic.twitter.com/vMkoTk6G3P— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) February 6, 2025 Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, recently discussed the challenges and progress of XRP ETF applications. He noted that while previous filings have seen starts and stops, with some firms withdrawing their applications, the fact that multiple issuers are now refiling suggests that the SEC is at least open to considering these ETFs. Hougan remains cautiously optimistic, pointing out that while approval could take time, the SEC is becoming more willing to engage in discussions about these products.  He also highlighted a key difference between XRP and other commodity-based ETFs like Bitcoin and gold — those assets had regulated futures markets before their ETFs were approved, whereas XRP does not.  Although a futures market is not mandatory for XRP ETFs, it would play a key role in the approval process. What makes these filings particularly striking is the ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the SEC. In December 2020, the SEC sued Ripple, arguing that XRP had been sold as an unregistered security. Ripple scored a partial victory in August 2023 when a federal judge ruled that XRP is not a security when traded on secondary markets. However, regulatory uncertainty still persists, making the ETF approval process for XRP more complex compared to spot Bitcoin (BTC) or Ethereum ETFs. Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, pointed out the irony — while the SEC remains in litigation with Ripple, it is simultaneously reviewing an ETF that would hold XRP. Geraci even called it an “enormous message,” suggesting that the SEC’s stance on XRP might be shifting. Shocked more people aren’t talking about SEC accepting XRP ETF filing…They have open litigation w/ Ripple.同时，他们只是承认有争议的ETF持有资产的申请（他们很容易就可以拒绝这份申请）。在我看来，这是一个巨大的信息。— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) 2025 年 2 月 14 日 更令人关注的是，彭博 ETF 分析师 James Seyffart 和 Eric Balchunas 估计，到 2025 年底 XRP ETF 获得批准的可能性为 65%。 我们的官方山寨币 ETF 批准概率已经出炉。莱特币以 90% 的概率领先，然后是 Doge，其次是 Solana 和 XRP。我们只针对 33 Act $IBIT 类文件进行审核。但肯定也能看到期货或开曼子公司类型 40 Act 的东西通过。https://t.co/JSaNnifjbu— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) February 10, 2025 XRP’s make-or-break moment looms XRP is at a make-or-break moment, approaching a resistance level that has defined its fate for years.  Over the past two months, XRP has tested the $3.15 to $3.50 range, a zone that has consistently determined whether XRP breaks into a major rally or gets stuck in consolidation. On Jan. 16, XRP reached a multi-year high of $3.39, but that attempt to push higher ultimately failed. Then, on Feb. 3, XRP plunged 43% to $1.94 as global markets were shaken by Trump’s tariff threats, causing a widespread selloff that led to one of the worst declines in crypto history. Despite the chaos, XRP has since rebounded and is once again nearing the same resistance level, setting the stage for another potential breakout. 除了短期波动之外，更重要的事情正在发生。XRP 自 2018 年以来形成的圆底形态即将完成，这一结构耗时近七年才形成。 XRP 价格图表 | 来源：crypto.news 如果 XRP 达到历史最高价 3.89 美元，该模式将正式完成，标志着长期积累阶段的结束。届时，XRP 将进入价格发现阶段，这意味着将不再有历史阻力位来阻碍它。 现在的问题是，谁将提供最后的推动力。更广泛的市场条件尚未完全支持比特币，因为比特币尚未创下历史新高，流动性仍然集中在少数资产上。 最大的潜在催化剂之一是 ETF 批准。如果 SEC 批准 XRP ETF，机构需求可能会激增，凭借巨大的交易量推动价格突破阻力位。 Another key factor could be strategic adoption — if XRP is included in a financial system reserve or gains a major institutional use case, the surge in demand could propel it into uncharted territory. The third wildcard is the SEC lawsuit appeal. If the appeal is dismissed, legal clarity alone could trigger a wave of buying. Now, all eyes are on whether XRP can finally push through or if history will repeat itself once again. The next attempt to clear $3.50 may prove to be the most significant in its history. XRP price prediction: Could history repeat itself? XRP’s 2017 bull run remains a key reference point, with several indicators suggesting that XRP is now mirroring the setup that led to its parabolic rise.  One of the bullish arguments comes from Egrag Crypto, which points to the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB), a technical indicator used to determine whether an asset is in a bullish or bearish phase. #XRP – Double Digits – 1500% Pump ⛽️:让我们分析一下 #XRP 发生的事情：1 英镑牛市支撑带 (BMSB)：这是我们确定我们是处于 #BullRun 还是 #BearMarket 的关键指标。目前，我们位于 BMSB 上方。我在之前提到过……pic.twitter.com/PNB4OmuCN8— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) 2025 年 2 月 6 日 “目前，我们的仓位位于 BMSB 上方，”他解释道，并指出他曾预测 XRP 将重新回到这一水平，即使当时价格为 3.40 美元。成功重新测试这一支撑位可能表明市场正在为下一步行动积蓄力量。 Egrag 将这一情况与 2017 年的情况进行了比较，当时 XRP 遵循了几乎相同的模式。他指出，当时 XRP 几乎触及 BMSB，随后在短短四周内飙升 1,500%，目标是 Fib 1.618 水平。 Fibonacci levels are widely used in technical analysis to predict price movements, and in 2017, XRP’s breakout followed this exact pattern. If history repeats itself, Egrag suggests a 1,500% surge to $27. Javon Marks takes this further, highlighting how XRP’s recent price action mirrors its 2017 breakout. Prices recently tested the all-time high as resistance, just as they did in 2017 before surging beyond it. Marks’ new second target is at $99, an astonishing 3,900% increase from current levels. $XRP to $99+🪞:The truth is, most of what we have to connect dots with on XRP is its past price performance and man oh man is this breakout and run shaping up extremely similar to 2017.Prices recently met the All Time High, using it as a resistance, just as it did in 2017… https://t.co/gjFsTxYSwG pic.twitter.com/F0wVWE8v0z— JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) February 7, 2025 Beyond Fibonacci extensions, Elliott Wave theory also points to significant potential for XRP. Dark Defender has been tracking XRP’s wave structure since July 2023, when the price was around 40 to 50 cents.  XRP had a 4th Wave on his Intermediate Cycle, which I highlighted in Dark Blue, aiming for $5.85 with the 5th Wave.另一方面，以浅蓝色突出显示的主要周期波仍瞄准 18.22 美元。（非财务建议）我从 7 月 23 日起就一直使用相同的结构……pic.twitter.com/CZXFSRyftb— Dark Defender (@DefendDark) 2025 年 2 月 3 日 根据他的分析，XRP 目前处于中期周期的第 4 波，第 5 波目标为 5.85 美元。他的主要周期波追踪长期走势，表明主要上行目标为 18.22 美元。 “我自 2023 年 7 月以来一直使用相同的结构，我们将其视为北极星，”Dark Defender 解释道，这表明 XRP 一直遵循这种模式。如果他的波浪计数保持不变，XRP 可能即将完成一个主要周期。 However, big breakouts don’t happen in isolation. XRP still faces its biggest resistance zone between $3.15 and $3.50, which requires a major catalyst to break through. For traders looking to take advantage of this setup, risk management is key. Placing stop-loss orders can help minimize losses in case of rejection, and avoiding over-leveraging is crucial, as sudden pullbacks could lead to liquidation. However, nothing in the crypto market is guaranteed. The same indicators that suggest explosive upside potential can also fail under changing market conditions. Trade wisely, manage risk, and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Coinbase 首席法律官 Paul Grewal 批评美国财政部试图以该案现已无意义为由驳回 Tornado Cash 诉讼。 3 月 21 日，美国财政部正式将 Tornado Cash 及其几个相关智能合约地址从制裁名单中删除，撤销了外国资产控制办公室 2022 年 8 月实施的制裁。 监管机构指责该平台为洗钱活动提供便利，包括与朝鲜拉撒路集团有关的交易。 此前，联邦上诉法院于 2024 年 11 月作出裁决，认定财政部在批准加密货币混合器的不可变智能合约方面超越了其权限。 在 3 月 21 日的裁决之后，财政部在一份声明中表示，该案件现在应被视为已解决，并认为由于 Tornado Cash 和相关智能合约已从特别指定国民名单中除名，因此该诉讼实际上已“失去意义”。 美国财政部声称，法院应该评估其是否仍然对该案件拥有管辖权，并指出，与所有联邦法院一样，法院对第三条管辖权的问题负有“持续的义务”，因此，“有必要就无意义的案件进行简报”。 然而，格雷瓦尔在 3 月 24 日的 X 帖子中辩称，这种做法不符合法律。 “权力不会主动退却。它会不断地喘息，直到无法再喘息为止……在勉强将 TC 除名后，他们现在声称他们已经提出了任何需要最终法庭判决的问题。但这不是法律，他们知道这一点。” Coinbase 首席法律官 Paul Grewal 你可能还喜欢：美国财政部解除对 Tornado Cash 的制裁，允许美国人使用 据格雷瓦尔说，这是一个典型的例子，体现了自愿停止的原则，即被告为了避免法院裁决而结束有争议的诉讼。 然而，这只适用于有明确保证不会再次发生此类行为的情况。在 Grewal 看来，财政部并没有提供这样的保证。 他引用了 2024 年最高法院的一项裁决，该裁决涉及一名被从禁飞名单中除名的美国公民。法院认为该案件并非毫无意义，因为政府未能保证该人不会再次被列入名单。 虽然 Tornado Cash 可能已从制裁名单中删除，但格雷瓦尔指出，财政部“不保证”不会再次将其列入制裁名单。 他补充道：“这还不够好，我会向地区法院说明这一点。” 最近的进展发生在一个月前，荷兰法院暂停了 Tornado Cash 开发人员 Alexey Pertsev 的审前拘留，允许他专心上诉，随后在电子监控下获释。 与此同时，Tornado Cash 联合创始人 Roman Storm 目前已缴纳 200 万美元保释金，预计将于 4 月接受审判。2023 年 8 月，他与另一位联合创始人 Roman Semenov 一起被美国当局指控，罪名是涉嫌通过该平台帮助洗钱超过 10 亿美元的加密货币。 阅读更多：“自由无价”：Tornado Cash 的 Alexey Pertsev 出狱

阿拉巴马州立法者已提出立法，允许该州将公共资金投资比特币。 最新提案是参议院第 283 号法案，由参议员 April Weaver 于本周提出，作为 3 月份提出的众议院第 482 号法案的补充。 该立法将允许州政府将最多 10% 的公共资金分配给数字资产，但仅限于市值超过 7500 亿美元的数字资产。 该法案写道：“本节所述任何基金对数字资产的投资总额不得超过投资时基金余额的 10%”。 目前，比特币（BTC）是唯一达到这一门槛的加密货币。法案还规定，这些资产必须由州财政部长、合格托管人直接持有，或通过交易所交易产品持有。 通过在两个立法机构提出相同的法案，阿拉巴马州立法者旨在加快立法进程。 你可能还喜欢：特朗普发表解放日演讲后比特币价格可能上涨 美国各州比特币提案 美国其他几个州也在探索立法，将公共资金作为财政储备的一部分投入比特币。阿拉巴马州是最新一个提出法案的州，允许将高达 10% 的州资金投资于比特币，此前其他州也做出了类似的努力。 今年早些时候，德克萨斯州立法者提议建立州比特币储备，将比特币作为战略资产持有。与此同时，怀俄明州等州已通过立法，承认比特币为合法财产，并正在制定政策，将数字资产纳入其金融体系。 亚利桑那州和密苏里州也已立法努力将比特币定位为州储备资产的一部分，尽管尚未颁布法律。这些努力符合金融政策的更广泛趋势，各州越来越多地将比特币与传统资产一起考虑。 你可能还喜欢：Bitfarms 获得 3 亿美元贷款以推动人工智能和数据中心的发展

在 Cronos 推出旨在建立 Cronos 战略储备的提案后，CRO 加密货币突破了 3 个月的下行趋势。 根据 3 月 3 日 X 的一篇帖子，与加密货币交易所 Crypto.com 相关的第 1 层区块链 Cronos 正在考虑一项建立 Cronos 战略储备钱包的提议，该钱包将通过重新发行 2021 年销毁的 700 亿个 CRO 代币来实现。 此次销毁被誉为加密货币历史上规模最大的销毁事件之一，将 CRO 代币的供应量从 1000 亿减少到 300 亿，以支持 Cronos 主网启动前的去中心化工作。 通过 Cronos 储备（将受到新的 5 年归属期的限制），该项目将为其路线图提供资金，其中包括计划在 2025 年底前推出现货 ETF。 虽然该提案的投票将于 3 月 17 日结束，但该提案已获得超过 99.76% 的投票支持，该举措将使代币总供应量恢复到原来的 1000 亿 CRO。 你可能还喜欢：Crypto.com 的 Cronos ETF 和稳定币即将推出 Cronos (CRO) 今日盘中上涨至 0.101 美元的高点，较周低点上涨 46%，截至发稿时，其市值为 25 亿美元。其日交易量也在此期间飙升 773%，超过 1.64 亿美元。 该代币受到热捧的另一个关键原因是 Cronos 宣布 Cronos 战略储备将支持“美国成为世界加密货币之都的雄心”。 The statement likely caught traders’ attention, especially as the overall crypto market was already surging, fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of a strategic crypto reserve for the nation, which would include a basket of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. https://twitter.com/kris/status/1896359966442938599 然而，该提议也引发了 X 社区一些成员的批评，他们认为供应量的增加可能会导致价格稀释。 CRO价格分析 技术指标显示短期内CRO的前景看淡。 在 1 天 CRO/USDT 价格图上，CRO 突破了自 12 月 17 日形成头肩形态以来形成的下行趋势线，导致看跌势头。 CRO 价格、50 天和 200 天 MA — 3 月 3 日 | crypto.news 尽管如此，200 日移动平均线仍高于 50 日移动平均线，表明近期价格走势疲软，看跌压力仍然强劲，买家兴趣不大。 CRO Supertrend 和 RSI 图表 - 3 月 3 日 | 来源：crypto.news 与此同时，超级趋势指标处于红色区域，相对强弱指数处于中性水平 42，这让 CRO 处境艰难。这些指标表明，势头还不足以扭转当前的看跌趋势。 截至发稿时，CRO 的交易价格为每枚 0.084 美元，而根据 Santiment 的数据，其社会情绪呈积极态势。 However, the price action could switch back to its bearish trend in the coming days if the current hype fades. Read more:Cronos 推出预付加密卡服务 披露：本文不代表投资建议。本页内容和材料仅供教育之用。

全球 M2 货币供应量创历史新高 —— 那么比特币为何没有飙升？是出了什么问题，还是延迟突破即将到来？ 目录美联储会议临近，市场紧张不安Rising M2 liquidityQuantitative tightening could be nearing its endLiquidity surge meets institutional uncertainty Markets on edge as the Fed meeting looms 由于经济状况持续动荡，市场在美联储 3 月 18 日至 19 日会议前夕面临越来越多的不确定性。股市跌跌撞撞，通胀持续存在，投资者正在重新评估他们对降息的预期。 除了不可预测性之外，特朗普总统的关税政策和联邦政府裁员引发了人们对整体经济前景的新担忧，给本已脆弱的市场注入了进一步的不稳定。 尽管出现动荡，但市场普遍预计联邦公开市场委员会将维持利率在 4.25-4.5% 不变，芝加哥商品交易所集团 (CME Group) 的 FedWatch 工具显示，不会立即调整利率的可能性为 99%。 然而，真正的焦点在于首次降息的时机。目前的预测显示，6 月份可能会降息，利率降至 4-4.25% 的可能性为 55%。 总体而言，投资者预计 2025 年美联储将累计降息四分之三个百分点，这可能使美联储基准利率降至 3.5-3.75%。 Amid this uncertainty, financial markets have responded sharply. The S&P 500 has dropped more than 8% from its Feb. 19 all-time high, while the Nasdaq plunged 4% on Mar. 10 — its worst trading day since 2022.  与此同时，波动率指数飙升至8月份以来的最高水平，反映出投资者在应对不断变化的政策，尤其是特朗普的关税上调时面临的困难。 比特币 (BTC) 也一直在苦苦寻找立足点，截至 3 月 18 日，价格仍在 82,300 美元左右波动，较 1 月份 109,114 美元的历史高点下跌近 25%。 BTC 价格图表 | 来源：crypto.news 现在的问题是：接下来会发生什么？如果美联储发出政策转变信号，市场将如何反应？这一切对未来几周的加密货币意味着什么？ M2流动性上升 Global liquidity is surging, and history suggests that risk assets like Bitcoin may soon react. As of Mar. 10, global M2 money supply reached an all-time high of $108.2 trillion, marking a 3.5% increase from its 2025 low of $104.5 trillion recorded on Jan. 6. Bitcoin and global M2 growth chart | Source: BGeometrics Yet, in this cycle, Bitcoin’s price action has shown inconsistencies despite the rise in liquidity, raising questions about whether a delayed response is at play. M2 money supply serves as a broad measure of global liquidity, encompassing cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money assets. When M2 expands, liquidity typically finds its way into high-yielding investments, leading to rallies in stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin. Conversely, contractions in M2 often coincide with risk-off periods, where assets struggle to find upside momentum. 密切关注全球流动性的变化——这是推动比特币发展的最重要的长期因素之一。事实上，使用 2013 年至 2024 年的数据，BTC 与全球 M2 的相关性高达 94%。现在你知道为什么这么多人恳求结束量化紧缩政策，甚至恢复量化宽松政策了。pic.twitter.com/E27bkhS5Vx— Nic (@nicrypto) 2025 年 3 月 5 日 仔细查看历史数据，可以发现比特币与 M2 增长之间存在很强的相关性。比特币最显著的牛市发生在流动性快速扩张时期，而 M2 的下滑则发生在价格下跌或长期盘整之前。 However, a key observation is that Bitcoin does not react immediately to liquidity surges. Research suggests an average lag of approximately 10 weeks before Bitcoin fully reflects changes in M2 growth. The above M2 chart further supports this narrative. Bitcoin’s recovery from its 2022-2023 lows coincided with a significant uptick in M2 growth. Similarly, in mid-2024, a renewed expansion in M2 was followed by Bitcoin reaching new highs. However, in early 2025, Bitcoin entered a period of consolidation despite M2 continuing its ascent. The missing ingredient appears to be the rate of change in liquidity rather than its absolute level. 对比特币同比回报相对于 M2 同比变化的更深入分析，可以发现一个更清晰的模式——比特币最强劲的牛市往往出现在流动性增长快速加速时，而不是保持稳定时。 因此，单纯的流动性扩张不足以引发突破——M2 增长加速才是关键因素。 量化紧缩政策可能即将结束 美联储自 2022 年 6 月开始实施的量化紧缩 (QT) 计划可能即将进入最后阶段。 截至 3 月 18 日，Polymarket 上的投注额已超过 620 万美元，交易员认为美联储在 4 月 30 日结束 QT 的可能性为 100%。 At its core, QT is the opposite of quantitative easing (QE). Instead of injecting liquidity into the system by purchasing bonds, the Fed has been allowing assets to mature off its balance sheet, effectively pulling money out of circulation. This policy, alongside aggressive rate hikes, helped curb inflationary pressures but also created liquidity constraints that have weighed on markets. While stocks and crypto assets managed to rally despite QT’s tightening effects, concerns have emerged that continued balance sheet reduction could drain liquidity at a time of rising economic uncertainty. The minutes from the January FOMC meeting revealed that several policymakers were open to either slowing or pausing QT, largely due to uncertainties surrounding the federal debt ceiling and evolving money market conditions, Reuters reported. Analysts note that the Treasury Department’s extraordinary measures to keep government operations funded have been injecting temporary liquidity into the system.  This has made it harder for the Fed to accurately assess true reserve levels, creating a risk that it could withdraw too much liquidity too quickly, increasing financial market volatility. 尽管人们对量化紧缩政策将在近期结束的预期日益高涨，但并非所有分析师都同意这一时间安排。 巴克莱维持量化紧缩政策将在9月至10月之间结束的预测，并认为在3月或5月暂停缩减政策，随后再重启缩减政策是低效的。 与此同时，Wrightson ICAP分析师认为，美联储更有可能减缓资产购买的速度，而不是完全停止，并指出完全停止可能迫使美联储稍后恢复资产购买，从而给政策制定者带来沟通挑战。 其他机构，例如研究公司 LH Meyer 则警告称，量化紧缩政策的任何暂停都有可能导致经济完全停止，因为稍后再恢复这一进程可能会很困难——尤其是在市场状况依然脆弱的情况下。 流动性指标发出的混杂信号使得美联储判断正确停止点的能力变得复杂。 A survey of major banks and money managers conducted before the last policy meeting suggested QT could conclude between June and July. Fed holdings, which have already declined to $6.8 trillion from a peak of $9 trillion in 2022, are expected to fall further to around $6.4 trillion by the end of the process. However, estimates suggest that bank reserves will only dip to $3.125 trillion from the current $3.3 trillion, while the Fed’s reverse repo facility — a measure of excess liquidity — has remained below $100 billion throughout February, indicating that financial conditions may already be tighter than intended. Historically, unwinding QT has been a delicate process, and if the Fed signals a stop in the coming months, it may effectively mark the end of the program. 如果发生这种情况，其影响可能是广泛的——长期利率下降，美元走弱，以及对比特币和股票等风险资产的需求可能增加。 流动性激增遭遇机构不确定性 虽然 M2 货币供应量的增加是比特币牛市的强烈前兆，但链上指标和机构发展表明，短期前景可能尚未与这一趋势一致。 尽管全球 M2 创下历史新高，但比特币的价格走势已显示出疲软迹象。CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 警告称，“每个链上指标都预示着熊市”，指出新的流动性枯竭，新鲸鱼以较低的价格抛售 BTC。 #比特币牛市周期已经结束，预计价格将持续 6-12 个月的看跌或横盘走势。pic.twitter.com/f80bnNhjy4— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 17, 2025 His analysis, which applies Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to various metrics, suggests that Bitcoin’s price may not immediately react to rising liquidity. One of the key metrics is MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), which compares Bitcoin’s market value to the price at which coins last moved, helping to determine whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued. Another critical metric is SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which measures whether Bitcoin holders are selling at a profit or a loss. 此外，NUPL（净未实现利润/损失）根据整个网络的未实现收益和损失来跟踪比特币持有者的整体盈利能力。 根据这些指标，比特币可能正在进入 6 至 12 个月的盘整阶段——这是历史上主要牛市之后出现的模式。 如果这是真的，比特币对流动性增加的反应可能会延迟而不是立即出现，这与之前的周期相似，即流动性扩张需要数月才能转化为看涨的价格行动。 与此同时，制度阻力也在加大。美国最近采用了比特币战略储备，标志着政府对比特币资产的看法发生了重大转变。 然而，这一举措并未受到全球金融机构的欢迎。长期倡导比特币、萨尔瓦多政府比特币高级顾问马克斯·凯泽 (Max Keiser) 指出，国际货币基金组织和信用评级机构已经开始下调美国信用评级，理由是比特币具有“不稳定影响”。 国际货币基金组织（以及各大信用评级机构）以比特币的不稳定影响为由下调了美国的信用评级。他们建议美国立即清算其 BSR（比特币战略储备）。— Max Keiser (@maxkeiser) 2025 年 3 月 17 日 凯泽补充说，国际货币基金组织现在建议立即清算 BSR，这引发了人们对美国比特币持有量可能面临政治压力的担忧。 如果美国政府在这种压力下开始出售其比特币储备，至少在短期内，这可能会带来额外的下行势头。 投资者应保持对短期波动的谨慎态度，同时密切关注流动性趋势和政府行动。比特币未来几个月的走势可能需要耐心等待，才能看到下一个重大走势的形成。 Trade wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.