随着鲸鱼和聪明钱的积累，MKR 上涨超过 10%

Is OpenAI building the next internet-scale company, or is its $174 billion forecast facing pressure from rivals who’ve opted for openness and speed over vertical integration? Table of ContentsOpenAI’s $174 billion vision for 2030The global AI race heats upMusk, Microsoft, and a mountain of legal risk OpenAI’s $174 billion vision for 2030 In an industry where bold bets often blur the line between foresight and fantasy, OpenAI’s internal projections for the next five years are ambitious even by Silicon Valley standards.  According to The Information, the company behind ChatGPT has informed investors that it expects to generate $125 billion in revenue in 2029 and $174 billion in 2030. These figures would place it in the same revenue orbit as current tech heavyweights such as Nvidia or Meta. OpenAI’s near-term growth plans are equally aggressive. For 2025, the company expects to more than triple its revenue to $12.7 billion, rising from an estimated $3.7 billion in 2024.  In 2026, the figure could reach close to $30 billion as newer artificial intelligence products start to take on a larger share of revenue. Of the projected 2029 total, approximately $25 billion is expected to come from offerings that have not yet been publicly disclosed. This points to OpenAI’s belief that its future lies in a broader set of use-cases beyond today’s chatbot-centered applications. However, such rapid scaling does not come without significant cost. OpenAI’s annual losses are projected to rise to $14 billion in 2026. Between 2023 and 2028, the company is expected to post cumulative losses of around $44 billion. The largest expense is compute. Training large language models and running inference at scale requires enormous processing power, with 60 to 80% of OpenAI’s costs reportedly allocated toward GPU rentals from providers such as Microsoft Azure and CoreWeave.  Talent is another major cost driver. Headcount-related expenses are expected to jump from $700 million in 2024 to around $2 billion in 2025. While OpenAI’s topline vision evokes comparisons to the birth of a second internet, the company does not expect to turn cash-flow positive until 2029.  The global AI race heats up As of February 2025, ChatGPT had reached 400 million weekly users. However, a growing number of competitors are scaling rapidly, each with a distinct approach aimed at closing the gap. Google has committed $75 billion toward AI in 2025, with its next-generation Gemini 2.5 model scheduled to launch mid-year.  Built on real-world data collected from Search and YouTube, Gemini is being designed to compete with GPT-4o not only in terms of raw performance but also through integration across Google’s broader product ecosystem. Meta has taken a different path, focused on openness and accessibility. Its Llama models are available under a permissive open-source license, offering free alternatives to OpenAI’s paid services. This strategy gives developers greater freedom to build and modify AI tools without relying on commercial APIs. You might also like:What politeness teaches ChatGPT — and why OpenAI’s artificial intelligence is paying millions to listen Smaller but fast-growing players such as Anthropic and Perplexity are also gaining traction.  Anthropic’s flagship model, Claude, appeals to users who require extended context capabilities. It supports up to 100,000 tokens in a single session, far surpassing ChatGPT’s 4,000-token capacity.  Meanwhile, Perplexity has carved out a space with tools built for users who prioritize real-time search and information synthesis. AI development is also accelerating in China, where companies like DeepSeek have started releasing open-source models that match the performance of established Western systems.  Developers on X have described DeepSeek’s latest release as comparable to OpenAI’s o1-class models, but available at significantly lower costs. DeepSeek R1 is 100% Opensource and 96.4% cheaper than OpenAI o1 while delivering similar performance.OpenAI o1: $60.00 per 1M output tokensDeepSeek R1: $2.19 per 1M output tokensPeople with $200 ChatGPT subscription, let that sink in. pic.twitter.com/yLnSDOGRzL— Shubham Saboo (@Saboo_Shubham_) January 21, 2025 OpenAI is adapting its strategy in response. The newly released o3 and o4-mini models represent its most advanced reasoning systems to date. These models are designed to serve as foundational components for future AI agents with greater problem-solving capabilities. On Apr. 14, CFO Sarah Friar confirmed that OpenAI is now building tools capable of performing entire software engineering workflows, not just providing assistance.  The company is also investing in infrastructure, including its own data center initiatives, signaling a long-term strategy that extends beyond model development. CEO Sam Altman stated on Apr. 11 that OpenAI systems currently serve approximately 800 million people, about 10% of the global population.  Musk, Microsoft, and a mountain of legal risk As OpenAI prepares to transition from its current capped-profit structure to a for-profit public benefit corporation in 2025, it faces one of the most consequential shifts in its history.  The proposed change requires approval from Microsoft, which has invested close to $14 billion in the company, along with clearance from California’s attorney general. However, the process is already facing headwinds from legal disputes and investor uncertainty. One major hurdle is the ongoing lawsuit filed by Elon Musk. The case accuses OpenAI of deviating from its original nonprofit mission to serve humanity and has brought increased scrutiny to the company’s restructuring plans.  If the legal proceedings lead to disruptions or delays, the financial consequences could be immediate. In April 2025, CNBC reported that SoftBank’s commitment to OpenAI’s planned $40 billion funding round could shrink from $30 billion to $20 billion if the company’s restructuring falters.  According to earlier reporting by the Wall Street Journal, the total round would drop to $30 billion, with Microsoft and other investors maintaining their $10 billion stake.  The complications are not just legal or financial. OpenAI’s nonprofit status has long shaped its public image, positioning the company as a champion of ethical AI deployment rather than aggressive monetization.  A move toward a traditional for-profit model could weaken that perception. Plans to raise the price of ChatGPT to $44 per month by 2029 risk alienating users who were initially drawn to the platform’s accessibility and mission-driven ethos. Beneath the surface, the financial structure of OpenAI’s operations is already layered and complex. Microsoft takes a 20% share of the company’s revenue under current agreements. While the partnership has been foundational, recent moves suggest a possible divergence in strategy.  Microsoft is reportedly testing models from xAI and expanding its proprietary AI stack, while OpenAI has begun exploring new partnerships with AWS and Oracle, according to Apr. 2025 developer discussions on X. The outcome of this transition may shape how OpenAI is perceived across the technology and investment ecosystem. It also carries weight in determining whether the company can meet its ambitious 2029 revenue targets or risks falling short under the weight of strategic and structural friction. Read more:OpenAI’s Ghibli-style generator redraws the line between inspiration and imitation

按交易量计算，全球第二大加密货币交易所 Bybit 于 2 月 17 日宣布引入上市代币的披露框架。 该计划是中心化交易所中首个此类举措，要求项目共享详细的财务和运营数据，为用户提供更深入的见解并支持更明智的决策。 Bybit 上币公告：迈向透明化 该计划引入了 Bybit 的上市公告板，这是一个专门的部分，上市项目将定期发布关键指标、绩效数据和财务报告。该框架通过提供超出初始代币经济学的透明度来增强投资者的能力，从而更清楚地了解项目的增长和财务状况。 你可能还喜欢：Bybit 推出新上市框架以提高加密货币市场标准 The first project to adopt this new disclosure model is SoSoValue, which has already shared its key performance indicators, a month after its listing. It has completed a successful $15 million Series A funding round as reported by crypto.news. These include: Total Value Locked: $190.80M 网站每月活跃用户：979万 每月活跃钱包：309,570 链上交易量：2.613 亿美元 披露框架涵盖五个关键领域：核心财务、代币指标、链上活动、治理和社区以及风险披露。这种全面的方法使交易者能够监控项目的长期表现、评估网络健康状况并了解项目的发展情况。 在不断变化的市场中保持透明度的承诺 “Bybit is committed to delivering the level of transparency our users expect,” said Emily Bao, head of Spot and Web3 at Bybit. “The initiative will benefit traders in their research stage and allow them to follow project performance over time, and we are excited to have SoSoValue as the first partner on board.” Jivvva Kwan, co-founder of SoSoValue, shared this sentiment, stating: “SoSoValue and Bybit share the ethos of openness and authenticity, a trademark of the crypto and DeFi community. We are proud to be the first 100% transparent project on Bybit and to set the bar together in trust building.” You might also like:SoSoValue token spikes following debut, $15m funding round

3 月 17 日，比特币交易所交易基金流入资金达 2.746 亿美元，引发人们对可能出现逆转的猜测。 比特币 (BTC) ETF 经历了显著的转变，在 3 月 17 日以 2.746 亿美元的巨额流入结束了连续的资金流出，创下了自 2 月 4 日以来的最高单日流入量。所有五只比特币基金均实现净流入，其中富达的 FBTC 以 1.273 亿美元领跑。ARKB 位居第二，录得 8850 万美元的新流入量，其次是贝莱德的 IBIT，为 4230 万美元，Grayscale 的比特币基金为 1420 万美元，Bitwise 的 BITB 为 230 万美元。当天没有一只基金录得净流出。 来源：Farside Investors 虽然这些数字看起来令人鼓舞，但值得注意的是，根据 SoSoValue 的数据，比特币 ETF 刚刚结束了连续五周近 54 亿美元的资金流出。This was largely driven by the macroeconomic uncertainty ensuing after Trump had introduced tariffs, which offset the positive impact of his efforts to buttress Bitcoin and other assets by including them in the strategic reserve. You might also like:U.S. creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve is ‘very significant,’ analyst says Meanwhile, Bitcoin price is currently consolidating around the $83,000 level, currently trading for $82,883 — down by just over 1% for the day. The 20-day exponential moving average sits at $85,559, acting as a dynamic resistance level BTC is struggling to break above. The failure to reclaim the 20-day EMA suggests that bears remain in control. If the price manages to break and hold above the resistance at $85,500, a move toward $88,000 – $90,000 could be on the horizon. However, if it drops below the $82,000 support, further downside toward the next support level at $80,000 might be in store. 来源：crypto.news 然而，如果我们缩小范围，整体趋势仍然表明长期看涨潜力，因此 3 月 17 日 2.746 亿美元的流入可能是在长期流出期后机构信心重现的信号。 据交易员 Coinvo 称，比特币价格最近突破了杯柄形态，并形成了看涨旗形形态，预示着未来几个月可能会上涨至 125,000 美元。因此，只要比特币能够收复关键阻力位，82,000 美元至 83,000 美元附近的看跌盘整可能成为下一次上涨的基础。 来源：Coinvo 的 X 帖子 你可能还喜欢：Bitcoin price on the verge of a breakout if this historical pattern repeats Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

随着看涨势头消退以及交易员对宏观经济条件变化做出反应，比特币价格已进入 78,000 美元至 82,000 美元之间的波动交易区间。 根据 Bitfinex Alpha 与 crypto.news 分享的最新报告，在上周短暂回升至 90,000 美元后，对美国战略比特币储备和白宫加密货币峰会等事态发展的“抛售新闻”反应导致回调，抹去了早前的涨幅。 加剧波动的是，上周五有 30 亿美元的比特币 (BTC) 和以太坊 (ETH) 期权合约到期，引发价格大幅波动。由于交易员对冲头寸，期权市场的实际波动率飙升至 80% 以上，隐含波动率在峰值前跃升 35.7%。 链上数据显示，损失普遍存在，交易员每天的实际损失达到 8.18 亿美元，尤其是 2 月 28 日和 3 月 4 日——这是本周期内最大的每日损失事件之一，报告称。 比特币花费产出利润率是衡量比特币持有者是盈利还是亏损出售的关键指标，自 2024 年 10 月以来首次跌入负值区域。 低于 1.0 的读数通常表示陷入困境的抛售。短期持有者尤其遭受了重大损失，其 SOPR 为 0.95——这是本周期中第二大的负读数。如果牛市结构保持不变，这些水平可能会吸引买家，但持续疲软可能预示着进一步下跌。 你可能还喜欢：萨尔瓦多不顾国际货币基金组织的反对，继续购买比特币 情绪评分 整体经济的不确定性也加剧了市场的犹豫。美国就业市场依然强劲，2 月份新增就业岗位 15.1 万个，但由于政府裁员，失业率上升至 4.1%。 工资增长依然强劲，但通胀压力和贸易中断对经济稳定构成风险。制造业面临挑战，新关税导致生产成本上升，新订单放缓。 与此同时，监管变化可能会重塑加密货币格局。唐纳德·特朗普总统的战略比特币储备目前持有 187,000 比特币，价值 130 亿美元，这表明美国政策从出售被扣押的比特币转变为将其保留为国家资产。 此外，该政府正在推动在8月前出台稳定币立法，并终止“扼杀点行动2.0”等限制性政策。 日本正在推出有利于加密货币的税收改革，包括对数字资产征收 20% 的资本利得税，以及对加密货币互换实行税收延期。这些变化可能会鼓励更多的数字资产投资。 你可能还喜欢：BlockDAG 与 SpaceDev 合作，在 2025 年提升区块链的可扩展性、采用率和增长

当加密市场准备在关税战中陷入动荡时，NFT 市场似乎处于更糟糕的境地。 交易量正在下降，市场正在关闭。 曾经被大肆炒作的非同质化代币市场，分析师曾大胆预测，到 2032 年，其市值可能会膨胀到 2640 亿美元以上，但现在似乎步履蹒跚。数周来，每周交易量像多米诺骨牌一样不断下降，吓跑了资本，并将市场拖回了 2020 年爆炸式增长以来从未见过的水平。 艺术品 NFT 年度交易量和销售量 | 资料来源：DappRadar 区块链分析公司 DappRadar 显示，2021 年的交易量飙升，达到近 30 亿美元。 快进到 2025 年第一季度。区块链分析师 Sara Gherghelas 指出，由于“活跃交易者已经消失”，这一数字暴跌 93%，至仅 2380 万美元。 “这种快速增长恰逢新冠疫情引发的全球变化，加速了数字平台的采用，并推动艺术家探索与观众互动的创新方法。然而，三年后，围绕艺术 NFT 的炒作已显着减少。” 萨拉·格尔盖拉斯 数据支持了她的观点。2024 年，交易量较上年下降近 20%，而总销售额下降 18%。正如 Gherghelas 在她的 2025 年研究中所说，这是“自 2020 年以来表现最差的年份之一”。 仍为投机性资产 OutsetPR 的法律官员 Alice Frei 在接受 crypto.news 采访时暗示，监管仍然一团糟，因为“政府仍未决定如何对 NFT 进行分类”。 在美国，它们通常被视为证券，这意味着平台必须走法律的钢丝。在英国，根据知识产权法，它们更像是收藏品。 “这些是加密货币监管明确的领先国家的例子；在许多其他国家，情况更加不确定。监管不明确创造了一种滋生欺诈的环境，削弱了投资者信心。除非有更多一致性，否则 NFT 的采用将停滞不前。” 艾丽丝·弗雷 弗雷还强调了一个更深层次的问题：在加密货币和游戏世界之外，NFT 仍在“试图证明它们具有真正的价值”。 “从理论上讲，它们可以彻底改变多个行业——比如防止倒卖的音乐会门票、用于在线验证的数字身份证或存储在区块链上的财产契约。但实际上，大多数 NFT 仍然主要是投机性资产。” 艾丽丝·弗雷 说到游戏，NFT 最有可能被主流使用，但它们的采用也陷入困境，弗雷指出，他回忆说，育碧的 Project Quartz 试图将 NFT 整合到 AAA 游戏中，但遭到了“玩家的抵制，迫使公司将其关闭”。 弗雷指出，游戏玩家“对于数字资产感到犹豫，因为它们更像是货币，而不是他们游戏体验的真正补充”。 你可能还喜欢：什么是 NFT？非同质化代币完整指南 旋转门 如果说数据已经不堪入目，那么 3 月份又带来了更多坏消息：一系列市场关闭更是火上浇油。其中，韩国科技巨头 LG 关闭了其 LG Art Lab，该实验室是在三年前 NFT 狂热高峰期推出的。该公司没有透露详细原因，只是表示“现在是转移重点并探索新机会的最佳时机。” Just a week later, X2Y2 — a former OpenSea rival that once boasted $5.6 billion in lifetime volume — also ceased its operations, citing a “90% shrinkage of NFT trading volume from its peak in 2021” and struggles to remain competitive in the space. Then came Bybit. The crypto exchange, still reeling from a $1.46 billion theft linked to North Korea-affiliated hackers, quietly closed its platform. Emily Bao, head of web3 at Bybit, said the decision would allow the company to “enhance the overall user experience while concentrating on the next generation of blockchain-powered solutions.” Amid the wave of closures, Frei says the NFT market now “feels like a revolving door.” “Take Bored Ape Yacht Club, for example – once the pinnacle of NFT status, its prices have dramatically dropped. At the peak, a single Bored Ape sold for $400,000, but now some are barely fetching $50,000. The problem lies in the fact that many NFT projects rely on hype rather than actual utility. If people cannot see long-term value, they are unlikely to return.” Alice Frei Last hope Coinbase 似乎也在撤退。虽然它还没有正式关闭其 NFT 平台，但所有迹象都表明它正在转移重点。在 2023 年初的一次财报电话会议上，总裁兼首席运营官 Emilie Choi 表示，该公司在 NFT 中看到了“中长期机会”。但它真正的重点似乎是在其第 2 层区块链网络 Base 背后。 尽管 crypto.news 多次提出评论请求，但由于 NFT 活动持续下滑，Coinbase 拒绝对其立场发表评论。 OutsetPR 法律官认为，按照目前市场的发展轨迹，小型平台不太可能经受住这场风暴。“小型平台将继续关闭，只留下 OpenSea 和 Blur 等少数几家占主导地位的平台，”她说。 她解释说，这种转变是由两大力量推动的。首先，更严格的监管即将出台，这可能会结束“NFT 的狂野西部时代”。其次，游戏行业可能为 NFT 提供一条生命线——但这条生命线仍然很狭窄。正如弗雷所说，游戏可能是 NFT 的“最后希望”，尽管开发者仍需避免“可能让玩家望而却步的付费赢取机制”。 “炒作已经结束。如果 NFT 想要生存，它们就需要证明它们提供的不仅仅是区块链上昂贵的图片，”Frei 总结道。 阅读更多：NFT 销售额下滑 5.3% 至 1.009 亿美元，比特币 NFT 销售额下降 30%