这次加密货币抛售是最严重的一次吗？

特朗普为什么一开始不将比特币和以太坊纳入他的加密货币储备？是什么让他在一小时后改变了方针？这对比特币作为国家战略资产的未来意味着什么？ 目录特朗普的加密储备让局势发生改变山寨币飙升，市场飙升内幕交易猜测升温专家怎么看？ 特朗普的加密储备让局势发生改变 经过数月的猜测，总统唐纳德·特朗普正式宣布成立美国加密战略储备。 3 月 2 日，他指示总统数字资产工作组将 Ripple (XRP)、Solana (SOL) 和 Cardano (ADA) 纳入储备。 在拜登政府多年腐败攻击之后，美国加密货币储备将提升这一关键行业，这就是为什么我的《数字资产行政命令》指示总统工作小组推进包括 XRP、SOL 在内的加密货币战略储备……— Trump Posts on 𝕏 (@trump_repost) 2025 年 3 月 2 日 该决定最初受到了这些资产支持者的热烈欢迎，但原始声明中没有提到比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH），这让许多人感到意外。 一小时后，特朗普在后续帖子中澄清说，BTC 和 ETH 也将包括在内，并表示它们将“成为储备的核心”。 显然，BTC 和 ETH 以及其他有价值的加密货币将成为储备的核心。我也喜欢比特币和以太坊！https://t.co/wA6110D3aJ— Trump Posts on 𝕏 (@trump_repost) 2025 年 3 月 2 日 Senator Cynthia Lummis originally introduced a bill proposing a Bitcoin-focused strategic reserve, calling for the U.S. Treasury to acquire one million BTC over five years — roughly 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply. During his 2024 campaign, Trump embraced the idea, and shortly after taking office, he signed an executive order directing a working group to assess its feasibility. His decision to include multiple assets rather than focusing solely on Bitcoin has sparked mixed reactions. 尽管一些比特币支持者认为 BTC 本身就应该成为国家加密储备的基础，但其他人则认为这是在联邦层面更广泛地采用数字资产的一步。 接下来会发生什么？这一决定将如何影响美国的加密政策？它会对全球金融体系产生什么连锁反应？让我们来分析一下。 山寨币飙升，市场飙升 加密货币市场对特朗普的声明做出了迅速反应，截至 3 月 3 日，加密货币市场总市值在过去 24 小时内飙升约 2300 亿美元，从 2.81 万亿美元上涨至 3.04 万亿美元，增幅超过 8%。 ADA 领涨，3 月 2 日开盘价为 0.65 美元，随后飙升至 1.13 美元，涨幅高达 74%。随后出现了一些获利回吐，截至 3 月 3 日，ADA 跌至 0.96 美元，但该资产仍远高于公告前的水平。 ADA price chart | Source: crypto.news SOL, which had been struggling in a bearish market, also saw a sharp rally, climbing from $143 to $178 for a 25% gain before settling around $161. SOL price chart | Source: crypto.news XRP — already one of the biggest winners since Trump’s election—jumped 35%, rising from $2.19 to a high of $2.97 before retracing to $2.68. XRP 价格图表 | 来源：crypto.news 尽管特朗普最初的声明中没有提及比特币，但比特币还是出现了强劲反弹。比特币正式摆脱了熊市，突破了 90,000 美元，达到 95,043 美元的高点，随后稳定在 92,500 美元，涨幅达 10%。 BTC 价格图表 | 来源：crypto.news 以太坊也呈现类似的走势，从 2,216 美元上涨至 2,548 美元（涨幅 15%），最终稳定在 2,376 美元。ETH 在主要资产中回撤幅度最大，但仍高于公告前的水平。 ETH 价格图表 | 来源：crypto.news 虽然 XRP、ADA 和 SOL 的支持者对它们的纳入表示庆祝，但许多比特币支持者认为最初的遗漏是一种冷落，尤其是考虑到特朗普之前曾称赞比特币是一种国家战略资产。 加密货币律师伊琳娜 (Irina) 指出，比特币用户支持特朗普，但 BTC 却没有出现在第一个公告中，这颇具讽刺意味。 特朗普赢得了比特币用户的热烈支持，他们为他鼓掌 30 分钟，并投票支持他— Irina â‚¿. Heaver (@IrinaHeaver) 2025 年 3 月 2 日 与此同时，加密货币分析师 The Bitcoin Therapist 采取了更为严厉的立场，批评将其他货币纳入储备，并开玩笑说，这一举动是如此出人意料，以至于长期对比特币持怀疑态度的 Peter Schiff 也可能会开始支持 BTC。 将 XRP、SOLANA 和 CARDANO 纳入美国战略储备的想法非常愚蠢，甚至连 Peter Schiff 都成为了比特币的极端主义者。pic.twitter.com/aeD7FmuZdo— The â‚¿itcoin Therapist (@TheBTCTherapist) 2025 年 3 月 2 日 内幕交易猜测升温 围绕特朗普加密货币储备公告的争议几乎在市场做出反应后立即爆发。 在消息爆出前几个小时，知名交易员 Teddy Bitcoins 在 X 上发布了一篇关于使用 50 倍杠杆对 BTC 和 ETH 进行 2 亿美元押注的文章。 Going 50x long on $eth & $btc with $200,000,000 is crazy.This is either a very rich degenerate or a market maker that is about to move the market in a meaningful way on the spot side.2% dip and $200,000,000 gets wiped! pic.twitter.com/3vEphProui— Teddy Bitcoins (@TeddyBitcoins) March 2, 2025 简单来说，这意味着交易者不需要投入全部 2 亿美元来进入交易，而只需拿出其中的 2%（400 万美元）作为抵押。剩余的 1.96 亿美元是从交易所借来的，这放大了潜在的收益和风险。 在这种杠杆水平下，即使价格下跌 2%，也可能清算整个头寸，交易员最初的 400 万美元将化为乌有。 然而，在特朗普发表声明后，BTC 和 ETH 不但没有下跌，反而大幅上涨，这使得高杠杆头寸可能获得丰厚的利润。 消息公布后，Teddy Bitcoins 向 X 提出了一个尖锐的问题：“如果比特币没有内幕交易，请解释一下。” 如果“比特币没有内幕交易”Explain this: https://t.co/DyaFxIuCdv— Teddy Bitcoins (@TeddyBitcoins) March 2, 2025 His comment sparked suspicions across the crypto community. Investor Mike Alfred took the speculation further, directly linking the trade to Trump and his inner circle, sarcastically praising them for turning political power into financial gain. Now we know who made this insanely well timed $4M, 50x leverage bet on BTC and ETH. Well played @realDonaldTrump and @DonaldJTrumpJr. This is exactly how to turn power and influence in to money. The Bidens played small ball in comparison. Bravo. pic.twitter.com/hGOHqugdwG— Mike Alfred (@mikealfred) March 2, 2025 但审查并未就此结束。记者本·诺顿 (Ben Norton) 指出，特朗普最近任命的人工智能和加密货币沙皇戴维·萨克斯 (David Sacks) 与美国加密货币储备中的资产有着间接的财务联系，这又引发了另一层争议。 美国令人震惊的腐败：特朗普的亿万富翁加密货币沙皇在一只基金中投入了大量资金，该基金的前五大持股是美国政府加密战略储备的五大持股。就在特朗普宣布这一消息的几个小时前，有人以 50 倍杠杆购买了价值 2 亿美元的以太坊和比特币 pic.twitter.com/LQWZceeTvB— Ben Norton (@BenjaminNorton) 2025 年 3 月 3 日 Norton claimed that Sacks was linked to a fund where the top five holdings matched the five cryptocurrencies selected for the reserve. Sacks quickly responded to questions about his involvement, stating that he had sold all of his personal crypto holdings, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, before taking office. Correct. I sold all my cryptocurrency (including BTC, ETH, and SOL) prior to the start of the administration. https://t.co/dN6nuGQUtu— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) March 3, 2025 However, reports suggest that his investment firm, Craft Ventures, still holds stakes in multiple crypto-related companies, including Bitwise, BitGo, Lightning Labs, and Dune. 其中一家公司 Bitwise Asset Management 投资了目前已纳入美国储备的相同加密货币。 没有确凿的证据表明这笔高风险交易与特朗普的团队有关，也没有任何确凿的证据表明萨克斯影响了储备资产的选择。 但一系列事件——时机完美的 2 亿美元仓位、价格的快速飙升以及加密货币沙皇的金融关系——让很多人产生了疑问，而非答案。 随着加密技术现在受到政府最高层的重视，透明度的压力只会增加。如果监管机构决定调查，这可能不是这些担忧最后一次浮出水面。 专家怎么看？ The reactions to Trump’s crypto strategic reserve announcement have been all over the place. Some see it as a major step toward legitimizing digital assets at a national level, while others think it’s a political miscalculation that could create unnecessary complications.  One of the strongest arguments against the multi-asset reserve is that Bitcoin, as the most established and decentralized cryptocurrency, should have been the sole choice. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong supported this view, calling Bitcoin the “simplest” and most logical successor to gold. 很高兴能学到更多。仍在形成对资产配置的看法，但我目前的想法是：1. 比特币可能是最好的选择——作为黄金的继承者，比特币是最简单、最清晰的2. 如果人们想要更多种类，你可以做一个加密货币的市值加权指数……https://t.co/jv8Gcn8N2S— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) 2025 年 3 月 3 日 他承认，如果希望扩大投资，市值加权法有助于保持中立。不过，他仍然倾向于只投资比特币的策略，认为这是“最简单”、最稳妥的选择。 Armstrong’s argument was echoed by Jeff Park, Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, who criticized Trump’s decision as a “huge political miscalculation” for underestimating the importance of focusing solely on Bitcoin. Huge political miscalculation by Trump in underestimating just how crucial it was for the Strategic Reserve to focus solely on Bitcoin.Sad!— Jeff Park (@dgt10011) March 2, 2025 帕克警告说，将长期价值不确定的山寨币纳入国家储备会带来不必要的风险，无论是财务上还是政治上。 他说道：“当你将那些用例尚不成熟、不能被视为‘国家战略’的山寨币纳入考虑时，你就有可能被假设为内幕交易——即使它显然是错误的。” 除了表面现象之外，一些专家还认为储备中的某些资产存在根本问题。 Braiins Mining 执行副总裁威尔·巴克斯特 (Will Baxter) 质疑美国政府使用纳税人的钱收购 XRP 的逻辑，Ripple 仍然控制着该资产一半以上的流通供应量。 美国政府使用纳税人的钱来购买 XRP（Ripple 控制着该资产 50% 以上的流通供应量）简直是疯了。Trump needs to understand the gravity of this mistake before it’s too late.Who’s advising him on this?— Will Baxter (@willbaxter88) 2025 年 3 月 2 日 巴克斯特担心的是，政府支持的 XRP 购买可能会进一步将控制权集中在 Ripple 手中——而 Ripple 是一家已经面临美国监管审查的实体。 那么问题是，这笔储备是否真的会实现。 前 BitMEX 首席执行官 Arthur Hayes 认为该声明只是说说而已，并指出，如果没有国会批准分配资金或更广泛的财务战略（例如重新评估黄金价格），就不存在收购这些资产的机制。 没什么新鲜事。只是说说而已。当他们获得国会批准借钱或提高金价时，请告诉我。没有这些，他们就没有钱购买#bitcoin 和#shitcoins。https://t.co/Q06cDtL6h7— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 3, 2025 Hayes’ scepticism is rooted in historical precedent. While executive orders and working groups can lay the groundwork for policy, actual execution often requires broader legislative approval, especially when it involves financial allocations at the national level. Despite that, Binance co-founder CZ took a more relaxed approach, suggesting that the reserve will evolve over time.  Attention of all bag holders is on this one word now. 🤣大家冷静点。没必要过度分析。随着时间的推移，可能会添加更多“有价值的加密货币”。将会有更多国家效仿。这是一件非常好的事情的开始。要开心。继续努力。pic.twitter.com/rJY53G6s9n— CZ 🔶 BNB (@cz_binance) 2025 年 3 月 2 日 He implied that more assets would likely be added, and other governments might follow suit, signalling a shift in how nations engage with digital assets. “No need to overanalyze,” he commented, reassuring market participants that this is just the beginning. If the U.S. government is serious about building a digital asset stockpile, it will need to address these concerns, provide transparency, and ensure that its strategy is based on long-term stability rather than short-term market speculation. While the announcement may be a first step, the real test lies in what happens next. Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Stablecoin issuer firm Circle was recently granted in-principle approval from Abu Dhabi financial authorities to serve as a money services provider in the region. According to an official press release, the Financial Services Regulatory Authority of Abu Dhabi Global Market or ADGM have granted in-principle approval for the stablecoin firm to act as a money services provider. This means that the firm has met the regulatory requirements needed to conduct business within the region. Though, the company would still need to await full regulatory approval before it can formally begin business operations in the ADGM. The Abu Dhabi Global Market is a financial free zone located within the capital of the United Arab Emirates. It comes with its own regulatory system that require crypto firms to gain approval from the Financial Services Regulatory Authority before they can set up businesses and services in the region. Circle (USDC) recently entered the ADGM in December 2024. You might also like:Abu Dhabi launches new Dirham-backed stablecoin project, backed by major institutions Circle Co-Founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire said the in-principle approval underlines the firm’s commitment to regulatory compliance in the global stablecoin landscape. “The UAE is paving the way for responsible innovators to build the internet financial system. This IPA from ADGM advances our strategy to establish deep roots in markets embracing the on-chain economy, creating new pathways for investment and innovation in the region,” said Allaire. Chief of Market Development at ADGM, Arvind Ramamurthy, said Circle’s presence within the region aligns with their goal to become a crypto hub for innovation and increase its global credibility in the stablecoin space. “We look forward to working with Circle as they expand their operations and contribute to the advancement of digital finance in the UAE,” said Ramamurthy. Earlier this month, Circle’s Head of Global Policy Dante Disparte stated that the crypto space needs more regulatory clarity to help bring more investors and institutional players into the space. He mentioned Europe’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation or MiCA framework as a benchmark example for stablecoin regulation. Read more:Circle’s Head of Policy advocates for MiCA broadening crypto regulations

DAR crypto saw a massive price pump ahead of its scheduled delisting from Coinbase. According to CoinGecko, the token, originally tied to the blockchain game Mines of Dalarnia, shot up nearly 690% to hit an intraday high of $0.48 on the morning of May 15 morning Asian time, before cooling off to around $0.39 at press time. The rally happened in an extremely high-volume environment, with daily trading volume spiking 14,600% from the previous day to cross $64 million. This kind of activity clearly shows traders were piling in, possibly due to fear of missing out (FOMO). The sharp uptick in DAR’s price today comes amid renewed community interest ahead of its delisting from all Coinbase platforms tomorrow, May 16 at 2:00 PM UTC, alongside four other tokens. See below. We regularly monitor the assets on our exchange to ensure they meet our listing standards. Based on recent reviews, we will suspend trading for Galxe (GAL), Litentry (LIT), Mines of Dalarnia (DAR), Orion Protocol (ORN), & PARSIQ (PRQ), on May 16, 2025, on or around 2 PM ET.— Coinbase Assets 🛡️ (@CoinbaseAssets) May 2, 2025 The exchange said it’s removing the token because a new version has been released, making the original version no longer compliant with its listing standards. Coinbase has advised users to either sell or withdraw their tokens before trading is suspended. Some community members believe this recent price action may have been a coordinated effort by traders to draw in more buyers before exiting ahead of the delisting. Google search trends for DAR spiked around the same time, reflecting increased retail curiosity that may have intensified the price surge. Another contributing factor to the sudden price spike may be the limit-only trading mode imposed by Coinbase. The DAR token has been in limit-only mode since May 2, as part of the delisting process.  You might also like:Pi Network drops 30% despite long-awaited ecosystem announcement With market orders disabled under this setting, liquidity tends to thin out as traders exit positions, especially in the lead-up to removal. This creates a fragile order book where even modest buying activity can trigger sharp upward movements.  In such conditions, high-limit bids, placed either speculatively or due to a lack of sellers, can amplify price movements and potentially trigger a broader cascade of reactive trading. For those unfamiliar, Mines of Dalarnia is a blockchain-based action-adventure game where players mine, explore, and battle through procedurally generated levels to earn resources and upgrade their gear. The game initially ran on the Chromia blockchain and used DAR as its main token. But in January 2024, the project rebranded and expanded into a broader Web3 ecosystem now called the DAR Open Network. This marked a major shift, from being just a game to becoming a full-blown platform supporting multiple games, AI integration, and cross-chain features. As part of that upgrade, the original DAR token was replaced with D, a new token that supports governance, staking, AI agent interaction, and more advanced multichain utilities. A migration portal was launched on Dec. 20, 2024, allowing users to swap DAR for D at a 1:1 ratio. The portal will remain open until Dec. 20, 2025. Major exchanges like Binance, KuCoin, MEXC, Gate.io, BitMart, and Binance.US have supported the token swap and updated their trading pairs accordingly. The Dar Open Network is officially set to transition to its mainnet on July 1, alongside the launch of its flagship game, Dalarnia Legends. Read more:Sui cools off after strong rally — can 21Shares partnership fuel new momentum? Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

随着比特币下跌以及美中关税税率达到 84%，这是否标志着新一轮系统性抛售的开始，还是美联储能够控制其后果？ 目录北京宣布对美国进一步加征关税数据实际上告诉我们什么Will the Fed cut rates? Beijing announces further tariffs against the U.S. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have escalated quickly in recent days, leading to visible pressure across global financial markets. On Apr. 6, China retaliated against the U.S.’s tariff escalation by announcing a 34% counter-tariff on American goods, directly responding to the 34% levy President Trump had introduced just days earlier under his new “Liberation Day” tariff policy. In turn, Trump said that if China doesn’t withdraw its countermeasure, the U.S. will impose an additional 50% tariff on top of existing levies. With a 20% base tariff already in place since March, some Chinese imports could face a cumulative tax burden of up to 104%. 如今，紧张局势进一步升级。4月9日，中国公布了更为强硬的应对措施：对美国商品加征总计84%的关税，自4月10日起生效。这其中包括此前已上调的34%，表明北京方面决定加倍努力，而非缓和局势。 突发消息：中国宣布自 4 月 10 日起对美国商品加征 84% 的关税。哇。— Kobeissi 的信 (@KobeissiLetter) 2025 年 4 月 9 日 周三，由于中国宣布对美国商品征收全面报复性关税，美国股指期货大幅下跌。道琼斯指数期货下跌790点，跌幅2.1%，标准普尔500指数期货下跌1.8%。纳斯达克100指数期货也下跌1.5%。 As of Apr. 8, the S&P 500 has dropped below the 5,000 mark for the first time in nearly a year and is now down 18.9% from its February high, close to the technical threshold of a bear market.  According to LSEG, S&P 500 companies have lost $5.8 trillion in market value over the past four days, marking the steepest four-day decline since the index was created. Japan’s Nikkei and other Asian markets have also started showing similar downward trends. Crypto markets have not been immune. The global crypto market cap has fallen to $2.45 trillion, down from $3.66 trillion in mid-January, just before Trump’s inauguration.  Bitcoin (BTC), which had hit an all-time high of $109,000 in January, is now trading around $76,000, with lows of $74,500 seen in the past 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) is down over 20% in the past week, currently trading near $1,450. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which tracks market sentiment based on price volatility, trading volume, and social trends, has fallen to 18. This level, categorized as “extreme fear,” hasn’t been seen since June 2022. Given these conditions, there’s growing speculation about whether the Federal Reserve might consider a rate cut in the near term, and if so, what that could mean for digital assets. Let’s find out. 数据实际上告诉我们什么 金融市场近期走势表明，市场正处于持续承压期，而非短期回调。标普 500 指数已进入 1940 年以来第 11 大连续下跌行情，过去四个交易日累计下跌 12.1%。 这使得当前的下降幅度与 2020 年 3 月、2008 年 10 月和 2001 年 9 月的下降幅度处于相同的统计范围内，这些时期的特点是宏观经济或地缘政治动荡更为广泛。 波动率指数 (VIX) 也持续高位。VIX 连续第三天收于 45 上方。8. 近几十年来，这种模式仅出现过三次——分别是在 2008 年、2020 年以及现在的 2025 年的熊市期间。 虽然它本身并不是一个预测信号，但它反映了整个系统更广泛的风险重新定价，波动性在较长时间内保持在正常阈值以上。 Beyond equities, bond markets are seeing ongoing turbulence, partly due to the unwinding of carry trades and lingering concerns over inflation that may prove more durable than previously assumed.  Several analysts have noted that the current volatility is making it harder for investors to assess risk premiums and price in future expectations with confidence. There’s also growing skepticism around expectations of rapid policy easing by the Federal Reserve. Economist Nouriel Roubini, among others, has pointed out that markets may be too quick to assume that central banks will intervene forcefully.  根据这种观点，除非政治言论（尤其是特朗普总统在贸易问题上的言论）得到控制，否则任何潜在的支持都可能被推迟或减弱。 与此同时，日本央行行长上田一夫表示，如果国内状况如预期改善，将继续加息。 不过，他也指出，全球贸易紧张局势仍然是一个关键变量，这表明在整体形势稳定之前，国外的货币政策可能仍将保持被动而非主动。 美联储会降息吗？ 随着美国经济面临新的压力，投资者正在重新考虑美联储可能何时被迫采取行动。 According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point cut at the Fed’s next meeting on May 6–7 has risen to 54%. Just a week ago, that number stood at 10%.  The sudden change reflects the growing concern that persistent financial stress, driven in part by tariff-related shocks, could impact consumer confidence and business investment more quickly than anticipated. But the signals from the Fed remain cautious. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated this week that there’s “no rush” to lower rates.  Despite acknowledging some short-term inflation concerns due to tariffs, she noted that economic growth remains strong and policy is currently “in a good place.”  Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler offered a similar perspective. She suggested that the recent inflation uptick may be driven by expectations around the impact of new tariffs, not necessarily a fundamental shift in underlying price trends.  Kugler reiterated the Fed’s commitment to its 2% inflation target, emphasizing that keeping long-term inflation expectations anchored remains a top priority. Still, not everyone agrees that waiting is the right move. Peter Schiff, a financial commentator and well-known Bitcoin critic, argues that the Treasury market is already signaling deeper instability, with yields on 10- and 30-year bonds reaching 4.5% and 5%, respectively. He warns that without a rapid rate cut and a liquidity injection, the strain could worsen. 正如我之前警告的那样，美国国债市场正在崩盘。10 年期国债收益率刚刚达到 4.5%，30 年期国债收益率刚刚达到 5%。如果明天早上不紧急降息并宣布大规模量化宽松计划，明天可能会出现 1987 年那样的股市崩盘。— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) 2025年4月9日 加密货币分析师昆顿 (Quinten) 也观察到了类似的趋势，他指出，即使股市下跌，投资者也不会转向政府债券等传统的避风港。 通常，当股票抛售时，投资者会寻求政府债券的避险。这种“避险”行为推高了债券价格，降低了收益率。但现在这种情况并没有发生。Yields are rising while stocks are falling. That means investors aren’t moving into bonds either. They’re… pic.twitter.com/uNCxrnaPTP— Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) April 7, 2025 When both equities and bonds fall in tandem, it usually reflects tightening liquidity conditions, conditions that crypto assets tend to respond to quickly. If the Fed does decide to cut rates, digital assets could benefit from the renewed availability of liquidity. Historically, lower interest rates have pushed more capital into higher-risk, growth-oriented assets, crypto included.  A rate cut could ease the current selling pressure and potentially restore investor appetite, especially for assets like Bitcoin that have previously performed well during expansionary policy periods. On the other hand, if the Fed holds rates steady and adopts a wait-and-see approach, crypto markets could remain under pressure, particularly if the broader financial environment continues to deteriorate.  Liquidity remains a key input for crypto valuation, and without clear signs of relief, the sector may continue to reflect the strain seen in other asset classes.

披露：此处表达的观点和意见仅属于作者，不代表 crypto.news 编辑的观点和意见。 这个“山寨币季”就像过山车一样——对于那些在混乱中茁壮成长的交易者来说，这是一件好事，但对于等待某件事发生意义的投资者来说，这却是一种令人心碎的折磨。波动性为王，而所谓的“智能合约领导者”以太坊 (ETH) 看起来不像王者，而更像是过气的重量级人物。 你可能还喜欢：以太坊收益率下降可能预示着生态系统的范式转变 | 观点 从技术角度来看，与其更耀眼、更年轻的竞争对手相比，ETH 的图表简直是悲剧。试图理解它就像试图预测龙卷风中的天气一样——每个交易者看到的东西都不一样。一些人抱着希望，称 ETH/BTC 的周线图上可能出现看涨背离。其他人则指着黄金交叉，仿佛他们找到了圣杯。与此同时，ETH 期货 CME 的上升三角形已被戳了太多次，看起来像一个泄气的气球。 如果您使用杠杆进行交易，请考虑冷静下来。正如一句老话所说，“交易市场，而不是你的妄想”——否则，您的投资组合将成为历史文物。 短期至中期展望：ETH 的报复性上涨？ 鉴于过去几周发生的事件，交易员们左右为难，是期待以太坊出现意想不到的、令人震惊的反弹，还是准备迎接又一次残酷的假象。市场发出的信号好坏参半，让人既兴奋又绝望。 造成混乱的原因如下： 以太坊 ETF 资金流入不断增加，表明尽管市场普遍犹豫不决，但机构参与者仍在悄悄积累。 对冲基金空头仓位激增，并积极增加——要么作为防御性对冲，要么高风险押注 ETH 仍有下跌空间。 结果如何？极度不确定。一方面，多头认为机构正在设置完美的空头挤压，等待抢购流动性并推高 ETH。另一方面，空头认为这是一场慢动作火车失事，随着 ETH 努力重新夺回主导地位，交易员们对冲潜在的下行风险。 有一件事是肯定的：ETH 仍然坚守着经历了无数市场周期的多年趋势线. If it holds, expect fireworks. If it snaps,the altcoin market might be in for a reckoning. Long-term: Ethereum’s identity crisis ETH 曾经是山寨币的霸主。现在呢？情况就不一样了。像 Solana 这样的“以太坊杀手”的崛起，让市场变成了一场混乱的角斗士式流动性争夺战。但 ETH 仍然有机构喜欢的一样东西——安全性。当堕落者追逐更快、更便宜的链时，正派者关心的只有一件事：不被黑客攻击。 我们不要忽视那些谣言——据说特朗普有 ETH 包？如果这是真的，他是否知道一些我们不知道的事情？此外，以太坊的 L2 解决方案规模庞大（尽管目前就像看着油漆变干一样令人兴奋）。 最常见的 ETH FUD——被揭穿还是被证实？ 1.“ETH 速度慢，价格昂贵。” 在撰写本文时，ETH 的平均交易费为 1 美元，而 Solana (SOL) 的交易费为 0.0008 美元。虽然 Solana 拥有 4,770 TPS，但以太坊的交易费仅为 13.3 TPS。乍一看，ETH 看起来像是一个古老的遗迹，但现实却更加微妙。 High fees mean demand. If fees were rock-bottom, it would mean no one wants to use ETH. Meanwhile, Solana’s been down more times than a lightweight boxer in a title fight. Ethereum might be pricey, but at least it works. 2. “ETH is too complicated.” Yes, Ethereum is the nerd of the crypto world, but that’s exactly why it dominates DeFi, stablecoins, NFTs, and DAOs. It’s the playground for innovation. Want to swap, lend, stake, or farm yield without a middleman? Thank Ethereum. Oh, and let’s not forget:以太坊拥有最庞大、最厉害的开发者大军自 2015 年以来，ETH 从未发生过中断。与此同时，Solana 和 Sui 却不断被自己的鞋带绊倒。 3.“由于 L2s，ETH 流动性变得分散。” 以太坊的 L2 爆炸式增长引发了人们对主网即将过时的担忧。链上活动减少意味着销毁费用减少，通货膨胀加剧。但关键在于 ETH 正在打持久战。L2 并不是死刑判决；它们是一种扩展策略。 ETH 表现不佳和机构作用 The spot ETH ETFs? So far, they’ve been about as thrilling as waiting for a dial-up connection to load a webpage. (If you remember this pain, you probably also remember Mt. Gox.) Price action has been sluggish, and ETH/BTC has been in a downtrend since September 2022. However, ETFs are macro-driven. When uncertainty hits, BTC is the safety net; ETH and the rest of the altcoins get ghosted. But here’s why ETH is still a powerhouse—institutions are realizing that decentralization, security, and long-term innovation aren’t just buzzwords. Plus, once spot BTC ETFs rake in billions, some of that cash will rotate into ETH. And let’s not sleep on the Petra upgrade coming in H1 2025—a potential catalyst for ETH’s long-overdue breakout. ETH/BTC: The ultimate strength test 忘掉美元价格吧——ETH 的真正优势在于其比特币 (BTC) 对。而且，嗯……情况很糟糕。ETH/BTC 已经下跌了近三年。唯一的救命稻草？多年来低点不断走高的趋势——直到 2024 年 11 月，ETH 跌破该水平。如果 0.032 BTC 这个数字立即为您敲响警钟，那可能意味着您已经涉足加密货币领域很长时间，已经伤痕累累。如果情况恶化——让我们面对现实，情况已经恶化——如果继续下滑，ETH 可能会跌至 0.017 BTC——这是自 2020 年以来从未见过的水平。如果发生这种情况，预计山寨币将遭遇圣经般的大规模屠杀。 ETH 不仅在与 BTC 竞争，还在与 Solana、Sui、Aptos 甚至自己的 L2 代币展开竞争。与此同时，模因币正在吸引那些不关心基本面的赌徒——只关心 100 倍的收益。 ETH 能涨到多高？ 是时候抱有希望了。如果我们采用 BTC 的 1.618 斐波那契扩展（将 BTC 固定在 102,000 美元），同一模型将 ETH 定为 2025 年的 7,300 美元。这合理吗？当然。这有保证吗？不可能。 交易者应该记住一件事——价格目标应该毫不动摇。随着市场的发展，你的偏好也应该随之变化。如果 ETH 表现强劲，就顺势而为。如果它崩溃，就放弃它。 最后的看法：ETH 还很酷吗？ 目前，ETH 并不是市场上最受欢迎的货币。它既不是一枚高飞的 meme 币，也不是比特币级别的避风港。它处于中间位置——对于堕落的交易者来说太慢，对于机构来说太不稳定。 尽管如此，ETH 在安全性、去中心化和机构采用方面仍然占据主导地位。如果你长期押注以太坊，那么你押注的是加密行业将优先考虑稳定性而不是速度。 短期？谨慎交易。长期？智能合约之王尚未消亡。 披露：本文不代表投资建议。本页内容和材料仅供教育之用。 Read more:Regulatory compliance needs smart privacy | Opinion Ilias Melikov Ilias Melikovhas over a decade of experience in marketing, specializing in brand development and performance-driven strategies. He has held roles as marketing director, brand marketing lead, chief communications officer, and managing editor, working on campaigns that enhance brand awareness and user adoption. Beyond marketing, Ilias has hands-on experience in crypto trading, giving him a deep understanding of market sentiment, investor psychology, and the ever-evolving dynamics of digital assets.  Passionate about decentralized technologies, he actively engages in discussions on their impact on global markets, combining his marketing expertise with firsthand knowledge of the crypto ecosystem.