4 个关键图表解释 TRX 价格为何可能上涨 72％

U.S. stocks ended mixed Thursday as markets digested the House’s narrow approval of President Trump’s massive tax-and-spending package. The S&P 500 dipped 0.04%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.28%. The legislation—projected by the Congressional Budget Office to add nearly $4 trillion to the federal deficit—includes sweeping tax cuts and increased military spending. It passed the House by a single vote after last-minute revisions, including expanded deductions for state and local taxes, aimed at swaying conservative lawmakers. The bill now heads to the Senate. Another spike in Treasury yields tempered investor sentiment. The 30-year bond briefly rose above 5.16%—its highest level since 2023—before easing. The benchmark 10-year yield also pulled back slightly to 4.55%.  Analysts said weak demand at Wednesday’s 20-year bond auction fueled the earlier sell-off in Treasurys, while concerns about debt sustainability persist. “Short term, the tax bill is good for the economy,” said Argent Capital’s Jed Ellerbroek. “But in the longer term, it adds to the deficit, and that’s bad for markets.” You might also like:CFTC’s Mersinger says crypto perpetual futures could trade in U.S. Bitcoin keeps hitting all-time highs Bitcoin (BTC) extended its massive rally, trading above $111,000, amid optimism over Senate progress on stablecoin regulation and anticipation surrounding a Trump donor event attended by major crypto holders. Bitcoin’s rally sparked limited excitement among derivatives traders compared to past bull runs. Analysts noted that spot market demand, not speculation, drove the gains, with long/short ratios and liquidations indicating moderate bullish sentiment. You might also like:RichMiner launches BTC  income plan, promises 5–18% annual yield

CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 表示，比特币已经到达牛市周期的尾声，未来几个月市场将面临看跌或横盘的价格走势。 在最近的一篇文章中，CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 预测，在未来 6 到 12 个月内，比特币 (BTC) 将出现“看跌或横盘价格走势”。为了支持他的结论，Ju 分享了一张历史图表，其中突出显示了 BTC 从 2014 年到 2024 年的盈亏指数周期性信号。 截至发稿时，比特币在过去 24 小时的交易中下跌了近 0.8%。根据 crypto.news 的数据，按市值计算，最大的加密货币目前的交易价格为 82,752 美元。在过去的一个月里，比特币一直在下跌，下跌了 15%。 每个链上指标都预示着熊市。随着新流动性枯竭，新鲸鱼正在以较低的价格出售比特币。几天前订阅我警报的@cryptoquant_com 用户收到了此信号。我猜他们已经调整了仓位，所以我发布了……pic.twitter.com/0EIrpTCPVi— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) 2025 年 3 月 17 日 巨鲸大量抛售比特币 在另一篇文章中，Ju 分享了他的分析，将主成分分析法应用于链上指标，例如市场价值与已实现价值之比、已支出产出利润率，并考虑了净未实现利润/亏损。他用它计算了 365 天移动平均线，以确定一年移动平均线趋势中的转折点。 Ju 在他的帖子中表示：“每个链上指标都预示着熊市的到来。随着新流动性枯竭，新鲸鱼正在以较低的价格出售比特币。” 2025 年 3 月 18 日过去 24 小时交易中比特币的价格图表 | 来源：crypto.news 你可能还喜欢：如果这种历史模式重演，比特币价格将面临突破 在 Ju 发布分析报告后不久，有人发现链上有一头鲸鱼平仓了比特币空头头寸，并在短短三天的交易中获利 406 万美元。这头鲸鱼因在 3 月 12 日在 Hyperliquid 上以 50 倍杠杆开立价值约 2 亿美元的以太坊 (ETH) 多头头寸而闻名，这导致该平台损失了 400 万美元。 根据 SpotOnChain 的数据，过去三天，这名鲸鱼向 Hyperliquid 存入了约 1782 万美元的 USDC 作为保证金，以 40 倍杠杆做空 BTC。最近，该地址已平仓所有仓位，并将约 2188 万美元的 USDC 取回其钱包。 在平掉所有仓位后，该巨鲸花费 611 万美元购买了 3,202 枚 ETH。不仅如此，该交易员还卖出了 328 万美元，换取了 1,040 枚 PAXG（PAXG）代币。 最近几天，交易员们发现，大量鲸鱼在 Hyperliquid 上以高杠杆开设大量多头和空头头寸。3 月 17 日，一名匿名鲸鱼因以 40 倍杠杆开设价值约 4.5 亿美元的比特币空头头寸而被加密货币交易员“追捕”。 阅读更多：一名鲸鱼因以 40 倍杠杆做空 5,400 BTC 而被“追捕”

The Thailand SEC will block access to five cryptocurrency exchanges, including Bybit, OKX, and CoinEx. The platforms have been accused of offering services in the region without a license. According to an official notice issued by the financial watchdog, the decision to block unlicensed crypto exchanges is part of the Thai government’s efforts to protect local retail investors and prevent crypto trading platforms from being used for money laundering. The Thailand Securities and Exchange Commission declared that it will block five major cryptocurrency exchanges for allegedly operating without a license. Legal action has been initiated by the agency alongside the Economic Crime Suppression Division. Starting from June 28, Thai citizens will not be able to access Bybit, 1000X, CoinEx, OKX and XT.COM. You might also like:Binance endorses Thai ex-PM’s proposal for a pilot Bitcoin project In the past few months, the Thai SEC have faced increasing pressure to tighten regulations on crypto exchanges due to money laundering concerns. As a result, the Thai government passed the Royal Decree on the Prevention and Suppression of Technological Crime, which came into effect on April 13, as a way to crackdown on illegal platforms operating in the country. Under the new regulations, Thai authorities are granted more jurisdiction to block websites and apps offering services to Thai users, specifically foreign crypto exchanges that target local investors, like Bybit and OKX (OKB). Not only that, the new laws also introduce stricter punishment for individuals involved with mule accounts. Entities found guilty of opening or letting others borrow their digital asset accounts for cybercrime can face up to three years in prison or a fine of up to 300,000 baht (around $9,163). Earlier this month, the Thai Finance Ministry announced plans to issue around $150 million worth of investment-grade crypto tokens to its public in the following months. Dubbed the G-Token, the digital investment token will reportedly be offered under Thailand’s budget borrowing plan and is designed with the aim of raising funds directly from the public. Read more:Thailand to launch $150m government token to raise public funds

HYPE Coin is undergoing a healthy correction after reaching a record high of $40. With strong bullish structure intact, a higher low at support could send price toward the $44 Fibonacci extension level. HYPE Coin (HYPE) has entered a corrective phase following a powerful bullish expansion that pushed price into uncharted territory. After topping near $40, price action has pulled back—but in a manner consistent with a strong uptrend. The correction appears to be part of a broader pattern of higher highs and higher lows, which continues to define HYPE’s bullish market structure. Currently, price is testing a key support confluence zone. From a technical perspective, this level could serve as the ideal launchpad for the next leg higher. Key Technical Points $35 Support Zone:Major confluence with 0.618 Fibonacci, VWAP SR, and Value Area Low. $33 Critical Level:Last line of defense for higher low structure—falling below would risk trend invalidation. $44 Fibonacci Extension:Target drawn from previous swing low to all-time high; next likely upside level if support holds. HypeUSDT (1H) Chart, Source: TradingView The $35 level is no ordinary zone, it represents a high-confluence support cluster. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the most recent swing, the VWAP-derived support, and the Value Area Low all converge here. This technical alignment increases the probability of this level acting as a higher low and base for trend continuation. As long as price remains above $33, the broader bullish market structure remains intact. A break and close below $33, however, would invalidate the current pattern of higher lows and could shift momentum to the downside. You might also like:Top 3 reasons Dogecoin price may jump 110% soon Should the support zone hold, HYPE coin could aim for the next key technical target, the $44 Fibonacci extension level, which aligns with a new all-time high. This isn’t just a round number or psychological marker; it’s a calculated projection based on previous market structure, making it a high-probability target if the bullish trend continues. What to expect in the coming price action As long as HYPE Coin holds above the $35–$33 support confluence, the market structure remains bullish. A bounce from this zone could initiate the next leg higher, with $44 as the next major upside target. Read more:MetaMask extension now supports Solana, mobile app integration weeks away

大多数阅读过加密货币的人都知道，比特币由于其特性，通常被称为“数字黄金”。一项新的研究显示，越来越多的美国人更喜欢比特币而不是黄金。 GameFi 平台 ChainPlay 与 Storible 进行了一项联合调查。在他们的研究中，他们询问了 1,428 名美国人关于加密货币和他们生活中的投资。 根据报告，超过 68% 的美国人现在拥有一些加密货币。77% 的人考虑在 2025 年增加他们的加密货币投资。60% 的加密货币投资者相信他们的资产价值将在 2025 年翻一番。 调查显示，50% 的加密货币持有者是婴儿潮一代，近 30% 是千禧一代，其余的是 Z 世代。报告作者得出结论，加密货币持有者越来越年轻。然而，目前尚不清楚使用什么数字作为参考点。这份报告中完全没有 X 世代的代表，这引发了人们的疑问。这才是真正的迷失的一代！ 不幸的是，该报告没有具体说明受访者的群体以及 ChainPlay 和 Storible 如何选择调查对象。 根据其他消息来源，截至 2024 年 11 月，只有 13% 的美国人拥有加密货币。这个数字似乎很大程度上取决于方法论。 新的加密货币投资统计数据 一项调查显示，特朗普的胜利对人们对加密货币的看法产生了严重影响，38% 的受访者在选举结果公布后决定投资加密货币。 其中，绝大部分（84%）都是首次购买加密货币，他们在支持加密货币的候选人获胜后决定尝试投资加密货币。 现在，是时候更深入地讨论报告中发现的 BTC 投资见解了。主要有三点。首先，51% 的美国人将超过 30% 的资产配置在 meme 代币中。这是一个有趣的统计数据，证明蓬勃发展的 meme 代币市场绝非儿戏。 第二点指出，五分之一的美国人将超过 30% 的投资用于加密货币。最后，第三点——近 52% 的受访者承认他们正在出售黄金或股票来投资比特币。 后者揭示了人们思想的巨大转变。超过一半的受访者现在相信比特币将继续存在，而且它比黄金或股票更安全，可能也更有利可图。 在 2017 年的牛市期间，人们对比特币的偏好超过了黄金或股票，这仍然是一种边缘心态。如今，当全球各国政府宣布将开采或储存比特币或将其用于国际支付时，人们对比特币的看法并不带有偏见。 除此之外，这些数据还意味着，这些人不仅决定购买一些 BTC，而且还采取了额外的措施，即抛售传统资产，先投资 BTC。根据调查，超过 51% 的此类人在美国。这显示出对数字黄金前所未有的看涨情绪。 你可能还喜欢：马克·库班选择比特币而不是黄金作为经济对冲 比特币和黄金 当然，“数字黄金”这个名字是有道理的。比特币与黄金有一定的相似之处。这两种资产都是稀缺的，而且都是通货紧缩的。未来不会有更多的黄金或更多的比特币。这两种资产的数量都是有限的，不太可能增加。你可能听说过，比特币挖矿奖励预设为每四年缩减两次（即所谓的减半）。黄金开采量也在减少，然而，黄金开采量下降的速度远远落后于比特币日益增加的稀缺性。 专家推测人类是否已经达到了“黄金峰值”点（此后黄金开采量将不断下降）。就比特币而言，比特币峰值出现在最初几年，之后产量一直在下降，使得比特币比黄金更稀缺。当黄金开采量下降几个百分点时，比特币可能会下降 50%。 不仅如此，在每一枚比特币被开采出来后，比特币可能会被送往月球，而淘金者可能会开始在月球上开采黄金，从而增加地球市场的总供应量。虽然黄金由于在设备、珠宝和其他产品中的使用而变得越来越稀缺，但比特币却会永远丢失或被封锁。比特币被封锁的速度非常快，以至于在比特币存在的 16 年里，大约 20% 的所有单位都被视为丢失。 ¡ï¸马克·库班：“#Bitcoin — 它成为了一种价值储存手段，它以这种方式进行营销，并且已经营销了 15 年左右的时间，并且它已经达到了像黄金一样被接受的程度。” pic.twitter.com/w3h2fjEnps— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) 2025 年 1 月 4 日 据商人兼电视名人马克·库班称，比特币已成为一种价值储存手段，其接受程度堪比黄金。他和 MicroStrategy 的负责人迈克尔·塞勒都指出，与黄金相比，比特币易于运输且易于控制。 阅读更多：马克·库班选择比特币而不是黄金作为经济对冲 塞勒曾经提出过一个思想实验，让我们想象一下试图将大量黄金或现金带上飞机。机场工作人员会将所有者视为小偷。如果我们试图通过电汇将大量资金汇往国外汇款，也会发生同样的情况。塞勒指出，与传统资产不同，比特币为所有者提供了对其资金的自主权和控制权。 Michael Saylor 谈黄金、法定货币和#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/9UNtVe0M8x— Vivek⚡️ (@Vivek4real_) 2025 年 1 月 16 日 在另一个例子中，塞勒指出，黄金时代在 16 世纪结束，当时其他支付方式变得更加流行。然而，库班的估计似乎不那么极端，他更愿意将比特币与黄金相提并论，因为人们仍然投资黄金，而很明显，比特币而不是黄金正在经历繁荣时期。比特币可能的缺点是其波动性较大，市场历史较短。然而，截至 2025 年，其涨幅一直大于跌幅。 你可能还喜欢：Pantera 创始人：作为储备资产，“比特币比黄金更好”