PENGU 在 Abstract 主网启动前上涨，但潜在的修正迫在眉睫

How are analysts interpreting Bitcoin’s $97K consolidation against rising global debt maturity, ETF flow trends, and the uncertain direction of interest rates in the second half of the year? Table of ContentsCrypto mirrors the tension but charts its own pathGlobal trade system under pressureETF flows mask deeper trendsNo past model fits this cycleMarket awaits a catalyst Crypto mirrors the tension but charts its own path The mood across global financial markets has turned visibly tense. What began as a focused concern around central bank decisions has morphed into a broader wave of uncertainty, shaped by conflicting macro indicators, uneven growth data, and investor hesitation.  The reintroduction of U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump’s administration has added another layer of friction. A particularly bold move, such as the 100% tariff on foreign films, has not only reignited trade war concerns but also signaled a shift back to protectionist rhetoric.  For investors who had grown accustomed to relative trade stability, this has raised new questions about supply chains, international cooperation, and the policy outlook heading into the second half of the year. Markets have already reacted. The S&P 500, which had gained steadily over the past few days, broke its streak as investors pulled back amid deteriorating macro signals.  In contrast, traditional safe-haven assets have seen rising inflows. Gold prices have edged upward, and Treasuries have gained traction again, a move often associated with risk aversion during economic softness.  Notably, the most recent GDP print disappointed expectations, while inflation has remained sticky around 3%, leaving the Federal Reserve in a difficult spot.  Rate cuts appear unlikely during Fed’s May 7 meeting, yet the tightening already in place may not be enough to shield against stagnation. Fed will announce its interest rate decision today.Markets pricing in a 95% probability that rates will be held steady pic.twitter.com/M0ZVOfQTZz— LANGERIUS (@langeriuseth) May 7, 2025 Jobless claims have begun ticking upward, and April’s CPI figures reflected consumer pressure that’s still far from easing.  The Treasury market’s absorption of a $42 billion 10-year bond sale is a notable development. It suggests institutional investors are repositioning for longer-term safety, likely preparing for potential policy missteps or a downturn that could surface without much warning. Amid all this, the crypto market has found itself responding with its own brand of volatility. Bitcoin (BTC) reached an all-time high of nearly $109,000 in January, driven by ETF optimism, institutional inflows, and the broader narrative of crypto as a macro hedge.  But it wasn’t built on solid ground. Over the months that followed, BTC lost nearly 30% of its value before clawing back to around $97,000 as of this writing on May 7.  BTC price chart | Source: crypto.news BTC still remains a strong asset in terms of performance year-to-date, but the erratic price swings have forced both retail and institutional players to reassess their strategies. Let’s explore how current macroeconomic pressures, including recession risks, trade tensions, and monetary ambiguity are shaping investor behavior and what the coming months may hold for the crypto market. Global trade system under pressure A growing sense of macroeconomic fragility is beginning to shape investor expectations across asset classes. J.P. Morgan has placed the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 at 60%, reflecting heightened concern over the systemic strain within the financial ecosystem. Treasury markets continue to flash warning signs. The inversion of the 10-year and 3-month yield curve remains persistent, a traditional signal of recession risk.  Compounding the situation is the approaching maturity of over $6.5 trillion in the U.S. Treasury debt, a volume that could pressure liquidity and challenge the government’s refinancing capabilities in an already uncertain interest rate environment. Charlie Hu, co-founder of Bitlayer, views this convergence of rising debt obligations and monetary policy uncertainty as a pivotal fault line in global capital markets. “There are approximately $6.5 trillion USD worth of Treasury bonds approaching maturity in the coming months. The economic slowdown is putting pressure on the Fed’s interest rate and monetary policy decisions.” He adds that a prolonged period of elevated rates, coupled with the urgency to refinance, could rattle investor confidence. “If the market continues to experience high interest rates alongside a large volume of maturing debt that needs refinancing, the U.S. government will be forced to address the situation carefully — striking a balance between managing high inflation and high debt levels, the two biggest metrics influencing capital flow and investor behavior in global markets.” This mounting pressure extends beyond the U.S. economy. The International Monetary Fund has issued repeated warnings about trade protectionism and retaliatory tariffs, labeling them as headwinds for global growth.  Recent policy actions have disrupted established supply chains, slowing cross-border trade and weakening the short-term outlook for export-heavy economies. Amid these developments, the divergence between economic systems and behavioral responses has become more visible. Christian, founder of Infini, believes the disconnect is structural rather than cyclical. “We’re seeing three core dislocations: one, the cost of capital has reset higher but consumer and government behaviors haven’t fully adjusted. Two, global supply chains are attempting to regionalize under nationalist pressures, yet our systems are still priced for globalization. And three, fiat confidence is eroding slowly, but the alternatives, digital or commodity-backed systems, haven’t matured enough to absorb that flow.” Parallel concerns are surfacing around liquidity vulnerabilities. Tracy Jin, COO at MEXC, points to emerging fragilities in the bond market that could seep into broader risk asset pricing, including crypto. “We’re closely monitoring a synchronized bond sell-off across US and emerging markets, especially the ones triggered by either sticky inflation or a fiscal credibility crisis.” She notes that such scenarios, if left unchecked, could lead to a contraction in global liquidity and reduce the appetite for speculative assets. ETF flows mask deeper trends While traditional markets continue to react to inflation prints and central bank guidance, the crypto market is digesting a different cocktail, one that blends rising institutional interest with noticeable retail hesitation.  The gap between these investor classes is becoming increasingly evident, especially when viewed through the lens of ETF participation, derivatives trends, and sentiment data. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell into “Extreme Fear” territory in April, typically a bearish signal. Yet Bitcoin defied this mood and climbed back toward $98,000.  This dissonance between sentiment and price has puzzled retail investors but, according to Jin, can largely be explained by the nature of capital flows. “As Bitcoin approached $96,000, it underscores the bifurcation between sentiment and capital flows. ETF inflows from institutional channels have been a powerful counterforce to retail anxiety.” She believes that much of the current turbulence is driven externally rather than from within the crypto ecosystem. “We estimate that 60% of the current volatility can be accounted for by macro uncertainty, central bank ambiguity, and geopolitical risks. The rest can be accounted for from crypto-native elements, including miner capitulation post-halving and leveraged positioning in altcoins.” The mechanics of ETF flows themselves have added to the confusion. Greco argues that ETF activity tends to reflect market moves rather than anticipate them, often introducing a timing lag that distorts real-time analysis. “ETFs tend to mirror the broader market trend. During sharp declines, we typically see outflows, while strong rallies attract inflows. Many ETF products settle on a T+1 basis, meaning the reported flows usually correspond to the previous day’s activity.” From his perspective, institutional flows act more as accelerators of existing direction rather than as early indicators of reversal or breakout. Retail behavior, meanwhile, remains deeply reactive. Michael Cameron of Vanilla Finance highlights how crypto’s unique structure amplifies volatility during uncertain macro periods. “Crypto’s high liquidity makes it a prime target for rapid sell-offs during economic stress. Unlike real estate or bonds, cryptocurrencies can be sold instantly on exchanges, amplifying downward price movements. Whales are buying dips, and a dovish FED or softer CPI could spark a rebound.” Across the board, investors are parsing mixed signals. Institutional inflows may stabilize markets temporarily, but without clearer macro direction, both camps remain on edge, interpreting every data point, Fed speech, or CPI surprise as a possible turning point. No past model fits this cycle As recession probabilities rise and market uncertainty deepens, the question resurfaces, is crypto still a hedge, or has it been absorbed into the broader risk asset complex? Jin believes Bitcoin’s growing institutional base may support a more nuanced response than a simple correlation or detachment from traditional markets. “Bitcoin’s leverage lies in its maturing investor base, especially institutional participants via ETFs. As they could offer a partial buffer, we may see a nuanced decoupling. Broader equities could suffer a sharp pullback but Bitcoin could act less like a tech stock and more like a high-volatility hedge, especially if rate cut expectations increase.” While that interpretation allows for divergence under certain macro scenarios, others remain doubtful of a clean break. Greco points to the increasing overlap between crypto and traditional finance, driven by institutional adoption, as evidence that both systems are now deeply intertwined. “The general macro trends are usually similar. What really differs is the magnitude of the price swings between traditional finance and crypto, with the latter obviously experiencing much higher volatility in moments of high uncertainty. Looking at the past data point and the increasing commingling between the two markets, it looks unlikely that one sector might have a completely different pattern to the other.” Some argue that the framing of recession itself needs to be rethought. Christian suggests that Bitcoin should not be viewed as a counter-cyclical hedge, but rather as a monetary alternative built to respond to systemic failure. “A recession, in traditional terms, is a lagging indicator. But in first-principles terms, a recession is just a large-scale mispricing of risk and value, corrected through forced rebalancing. Bitcoin is what happens when a system opts out. It doesn’t need a soft landing — it is the hard alternative.” That framework gains sharper relevance when viewed through the lens of geopolitical shocks and prolonged policy failure. Cameron stresses that while Bitcoin may gain in the long term from failed monetary policy, it is not insulated from short-term market trauma. “The brief 2020 COVID recession saw crypto recover quickly due to stimulus and low rates, but a deeper, tariff-driven ‘Trumpcession’ could be different. Crypto has never endured a prolonged US recession since Bitcoin’s inception in 2009.” Market awaits a catalyst With the global macro backdrop still clouded by inflation, debt concerns, and geopolitical risk, market participants are shifting toward short-term caution while keeping one eye on longer-term opportunities.  Bitcoin has rallied nearly 25% over the past month, largely driven by institutional spot buying and ETF inflows. However, early signs of fatigue are beginning to show.  According to 10x Research, the Coinbase premium has dropped and funding rates have weakened, suggesting that momentum may be slowing.  The report notes that Bitcoin is now consolidating near the $95,000 level, with traders awaiting clearer signals from the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decisions. “This is not a time for blind risk-taking but tactical positioning with well-defined exposure,” the research states, advising investors to consider hedging strategies as volatility creeps back in. Cameron believes that while short-term weakness remains a concern, structural drivers continue to support long-term growth. He sees recession fears and ETF outflows contributing to current volatility, but also points to positive underlying trends. Jin echoes that sense of cautious optimism. She expects Bitcoin to remain in a wide range as the market digests policy and liquidity signals. “Bitcoin may trade in the $88,000–$100,000 range as the market digests macro signals and ETF flow data. Our year-end target remains cautiously bullish at $128,000, with the assumption of zero black swan event.” Still, visibility remains limited. Greco describes the current price zone as crucial. “The market is currently sitting at a crucial level that could shape sentiment over the coming weeks. A decisive break above the $94,000–$95,000 range could restore confidence in a sustained bullish trend.” However, he stops short of any definitive forecast, noting that the cycle has already deviated from historical patterns. “This one has already broken precedent by reaching a new all-time high before the halving, something never seen before.” Christian suggests that the dominant market variable going forward may not be rate decisions or inflation data, but trust. “The key variable now isn’t earnings or even rates. It’s trust. Trust in sovereign debt, in fiat, in central bank forward guidance. That trust has been bleeding.” He sees Bitcoin and stablecoins as systems increasingly filling the vacuum left by waning institutional credibility. As crypto enters the next phase of its market cycle, clarity will likely hinge on central bank action, global liquidity conditions, and the durability of institutional flows. In the meantime, the market remains in a holding pattern.  Summing it all up, risk is being recalibrated, conviction is being tested, and capital is watching for the next signal to move. Amid such fragile conditions, trade wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

美国财政部解除了对去中心化加密货币混合器 Tornado Cash 的制裁，实际上使美国公民使用其合法化。 此举推翻了外国资产控制办公室 2022 年 8 月实施的制裁，该办公室指控该平台为洗钱活动提供便利，包括与朝鲜拉撒路集团有关的交易。 Tornado Cash 于 2019 年推出，是一种基于以太坊的协议，通过允许用户混淆加密货币转账的来源和目的地来增强交易隐私。 虽然这项服务迎合了寻求财务隐私的个人，但它也被恶意行为者利用来洗钱。 美国财政部指控 Tornado Cash 被用于洗钱超过 70 亿美元的虚拟货币，其中包括 Lazarus Group 窃取的 4.55 亿美元。 财政部长斯科特·贝森特 (Scott Bessent) 对这一决定发表评论称，“数字资产为美国人民带来了巨大的创新和价值创造机会。保护数字资产行业免受朝鲜和其他非法行为者的滥用对于确立美国的领导地位和确保美国人民能够从金融创新和包容性中受益至关重要。” 你可能还喜欢：memecoin 的未来如何？ShibaDino 正在引领潮流 言论自由问题 Critics argued that sanctioning open-source software infringed upon free speech and technological innovation. In response, a group of Tornado Cash users, supported by cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, filed a lawsuit challenging the sanctions. In November 2024, a federal appeals court ruled in favor of the plaintiffs, stating that the Treasury had overstepped its authority. The court emphasized that Tornado Cash’s immutable smart contracts did not qualify as “property” under federal law, thereby falling outside the scope of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Judge Don Willett noted that while the technology could be misused, it was the role of Congress, not the courts, to amend relevant laws. ​ You might also like:日本房地产公司 Open House 接受 XRP、SOL 和 DOGE

Pump.fun 的联合创始人否认了有关即将发行代币的谣言，并敦促用户忽略平台未直接分享的信息。 联合创始人阿隆·科恩 (Alon Cohen) 于 2024 年 1 月帮助推出了 Pump.fun，他在 X 上发帖称，他的团队仍专注于产品改进。他们还将继续致力于“适当奖励用户”，他说。 科恩在致辞中强调了耐心的重要性，表示“好事多磨”，同时警告不要擅自声称该平台的计划。目前，该平台正受到交易员和监管机构越来越多的关注。 看到关于潜在的 pump fun 代币的谣言 —— 这些都是错误的建议不要听任何不是直接来自@pumpdotfun 的内容虽然 pump fun 团队在一年的发展历程中主要致力于改进产品，但该团队始终致力于……— alon (@a1lon9) 2025 年 2 月 9 日 该声明与加密分析师吴区块链之前的报道相矛盾，后者报道称，Pump.fun 正准备与中心化交易所合作，通过荷兰拍卖模式发行代币。 关于该代币的功能猜测包括收益分享和持有者的专属平台访问权。 1 月 16 日，Burwick Law 和 Wolf Popper LLP 对该平台提起了第一起重大诉讼。诉讼称，该平台以 meme 代币为幌子，协助进行未经注册的证券销售，违反了美国证券法。 该投诉特别强调了花生松鼠代币的案例，据称该代币在崩溃前通过有影响力的推广经历了人为的价格上涨。 1 月 30 日，法律压力进一步加剧，第二起诉讼扩大了对 Pump.fun 运营商 Baton Corporation Ltd. 和平台主要高管的指控。这些法律行动针对的是原告所说的损害散户投资者利益的协同价格操纵计划。 在该平台接受越来越严格的监管审查之际，联合创始人对未经授权的索赔发出了警告。 阅读更多：报道称，特朗普表情包币推出后，超过 700 种山寨币涌入市场

由于网络费用超过了几家蓝筹区块链网络，Jito 周三飙升超过 8%。 Jito (JTO) 是 Solana (SOL) 上最大的流动性质押平台，已成为继 Tether 之后加密行业第二大盈利实体。 据 TokenTerminal 称，Jito 今年产生的费用超过 2.61 亿美元，而 Tether 的收入为 3.5 亿美元。 Jito 的表现使其超越了加密货币行业的一些最大参与者，包括以太坊 (ETH) 和 Solana。它的收入也超过了 Aave、Uniswap 和 Lido Finance 等领先的 DeFi 平台。 Jito 的费用上涨与其生态系统内锁定的总价值增加相吻合。根据 DeFi Llama 的数据，Jito 的 TVL 已攀升至 36 亿美元以上，接近其 39 亿美元的历史最高水平。 该平台的客户群也已增长到 155,000 多人，随着 Solana 生态系统的扩大，这一数字预计还会上升。 你可能还喜欢：Balchunas 确认 Bonk 2x ETF 的可能性仍然很大 Jito 与其他流动性质押网络（如 Lido 和 Rocket Pool）一样，为质押投资者提供了更大的灵活性，让他们能够利用质押资产。在传统质押中，用户必须锁定资产一段时间（通常是一个月）才能获得回报。流动性质押允许用户在获得流动性的同时仍能获得质押奖励。 Jito 价格分析 Jito 代币图表 |来源：crypto.news 日线图显示，Jito 的价格在过去几个月里一直处于挣扎状态。自去年 2 月达到 5.33 美元的历史高点以来，该代币已下跌超过 42%。 Jito 已形成对称三角形形态，两条趋势线接近汇合。该股目前也在其 50 日和 25 日移动平均线附近交易。 因此，Jito 可能会在未来几周继续盘整，然后反弹。如果这一趋势得以实现，该代币可能会上涨高达 75%，有可能重回其历史高点 5.33 美元。然而，跌破 2.2236 美元的关键支撑位将使看涨前景失效。 你可能还喜欢：超过一半的 Z 世代拥有加密货币：Gemini

美国破产法院已允许已倒闭的加密对冲基金 Three Arrows Capital 的清算人大幅增加其对倒闭的加密货币交易所 FTX 的索赔金额，从 1.2 亿美元增加至 15.3 亿美元。 在美国特拉华州破产法院 3 月 13 日的一项裁决中，法官裁定 FTX 应向 Three Arrows Capital 支付 15.3 亿美元，索赔金额从 2023 年 6 月提交的最初 1.2 亿美元增加。FTX 反对该裁决，认为为时已晚，会拖延其破产程序。然而，法官站在 3AC 清算人一边，认为他们已经充分通知了他们的索赔。法官裁定，提交更大索赔的延迟主要是由于 FTX 没有及时与 3AC 清算人分享相关记录。3AC 清算人需要这些信息来正确评估和详细说明他们的索赔。 资料来源：美国特拉华州破产法院 3 月 13 日裁决 3AC 的清算人声称 FTX 持有 3AC 15.3 亿美元的资产，这些资产随后被清算以偿还 3AC 的债务。此外，3AC 清算人辩称，这些交易是可以避免的，而且 FTX 没有提供可以揭露清算的信息。 你可能还喜欢：2022 年加密货币主要崩盘：回顾 FTX、Celsius Network、Three Arrows Capital、Terra 3AC 和 FTX 都曾是加密货币世界的主要参与者，但两家公司都没有倒闭。Three Arrows Capital 是最大的加密货币对冲基金之一，由于比特币 (BTC)、以太坊 (ETH) 和其他山寨币的过度杠杆头寸被强制清算，该基金于 2022 年 6 月倒闭。他们于 2022 年 7 月申请破产。其清算人现在正试图通过出售剩余资产和通过各种诉讼来收回资金，其中最引人注目的是针对 FTX 和 Terraform Labs 的诉讼，以偿还债权人。 FTX 加密货币交易所于 2022 年 11 月宣布破产，并试图通过各种诉讼追回资金，其中包括针对币安和赵长鹏的诉讼。FTX 最近启动了通过 BitGo 和 Kraken 交易所协助的还款流程。 你可能还喜欢：Kraken 正为下一轮 FTX 赔付做准备，其中包括约 5 万美元的索赔