2025-04-23 03:45:28
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XRP 要怎样才能取代比特币成为数字黄金?

XRP 要怎样才能取代比特币成为数字黄金?

XRP 在 2025 年接连创下关键里程碑,而比特币却让期待大幅上涨的用户感到失望。随着美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 与瑞波币 (Ripple) 的法律纠纷接近尾声,以及瑞波币的胜利,XRP 在 1 月份创下 3.40 美元的峰值,为长期持有者带来了丰厚回报。

比特币(BTC)在地缘政治危机中逐渐失去其作为“避风港”的优势,以太坊处于衰退状态,XRP 成为 2025 年最大加密货币“数字黄金”叙事的主要竞争对手。

目录

与美国证券交易委员会(SEC)斗争了近五年的支付汇款公司Ripple最终胜诉,并以5000万美元达成和解。SEC最初寻求的赔偿金额为1.25亿美元。此次和解为XRP账本的原生代币XRP提供了法律上的明确性,使其能够在交易所平台上自由交易。

这场法律纠纷破坏了 XRP 多年的发展,导致其从主要交易所退市、Ripple 失去业务和合作伙伴关系,以及用户总体需求和采用率下降。

SEC 诉 Ripple 案的结束为机构采用、零售交易者重新产生的兴趣以及在整个生态系统的主要交易平台上上市打开了闸门。

XRP 凭借诉讼胜利赢得机构信任和需求

Institutions such as Coinbase Derivatives, Bitnomial, and ProShares have filed for ETFs tied to XRP. Coinbase Derivatives listed XRP futures on April 21, stating that the contracts are overseen by the CFTC and offer a capital-efficient way to gain XRP exposure.

2025 年 3 月,Bitnomial 推出了实物结算的 XRP 期货合约,使其有别于现金结算的期权。

ProShares 最近更新了其申请文件,将 4 月 30 日定为基于 XRP 期货的交易所交易产品的发布日期。Grayscale、Bitwise、21Shares、CoinShares 和 Canary Capital 也提交了现货 XRP ETF 的申请,这表明诉讼案结束后,机构对该资产的信心日益增强。

比特币的数字黄金叙事正在消退

Two key events charting the path for XRP to become the new “digital Gold,” are Bitcoin’s fading association with being digital Gold or a Gold-alternative, and XRP’s rising demand and value amidst institutional investors and traders. 

While Bitcoin recently climbed back above $91,000 for the first time in 45 days, XRP has outperformed it with year-to-date gains of 3.71% and six-month gains of over 300%, according to TradingView.

Bitcoin’s detachment from U.S. equities and gold’s rally to a new all-time high are shaping the current market cycle. Analysts at JP Morgan noted increased pressure on Bitcoin’s narrative as digital gold under current conditions.

JP Morgan analysts said in a written note that the current market condition has increased pressure on Bitcoin’s narrative as digital Gold. 

While the shiny metal benefits from economic uncertainty and gains from stronger demand, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Managing Director at JP Morgan says, “ Bitcoin’s volatility and correlation with equities raises questions over its ‘digital gold’ narrative. Looking forward, we see Gold continuing to rise as the major beneficiary of the debasement trade.” 

“贬值交易”刺激了对黄金和比特币等抗通胀资产的需求,而这种交易似乎对黄金的利好作用更大。随着投资者采取避险立场,资金正从股票和加密货币流向黄金。

就风险回报而言,比特币的波动性使其对投资者而言与科技股不相上下,摩根大通分析师认为,如果考虑估计生产成本,BTC 的价值为 62,000 美元,并且波动性调整后的价值为 71,000 美元。

XRP 能成为数字黄金吗?

在全球加密货币基金的周流入量中,XRP 领跑所有其他资产,吸引了 3770 万美元。相比之下,根据 CoinShares 的数据,以太坊和比特币交易所交易产品的周流出量分别为 2670 万美元和 600 万美元。


XRP
加密货币资金流向 | 来源:CoinShares

XRP is now the third most successful crypto asset this year, with $214 million in net inflows. The combination of investor returns, ETF filings, and renewed demand supports the growing narrative that XRP could be seen as a “digital gold” alternative.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed inclusion of XRP in a federal crypto reserve could further strengthen this outlook, especially as Bitcoin continues to lack utility for everyday users outside the crypto ecosystem.

XRP price forecast

XRP/USDT daily price chart shows two key momentum indicators, the RSI and MACD support a bullish thesis for the second-largest altcoin. XRP could rally 16% to re-test sticky resistance at $2.50. 

该水平与 2025 年 1 月高点 3.40 美元至 4 月 7 日低点 1.61 美元跌势的 50% 斐波那契回撤位相吻合。40% 的反弹可能推动 XRP 重新测试具有重要心理意义的 3 美元水平。

RSI 呈上升趋势,目前为 52,高于中性线 50。MACD 也呈现看涨趋势,绿色柱状图已突破中性线。这表明,随着整体加密货币市场的复苏,XRP 的价格走势具有潜在的强势。


XRP price
XRP/USDT 每日价格图表 | 来源:Crypto.news

如果出现修正或闪电崩盘,XRP 可能会重新回到 2 美元的支撑位,然后走低。

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