斯科特·梅尔克：比特币显示出看涨迹象，但低交易量引发警惕

Speaking at the Token2049 event in Dubai, Changpeng Zhao spilled the tea on crypto regulation and setting up national crypto reserves via his new found love for consultancy. During a wide-ranging fireside chat with Raoul Pal at the Token2049 conference in Dubai, held on April 30, CZ gave advice on countries seeking his guidance on handling crypto. He also reiterated his call for creating AI agents with real utility and said that crypto will become the go-to currency in the AI-driven economy. According to CZ, countries approaching him typically want to keep crypto infrastructure localized, from wallets to custody and order books. However, CZ says that this is not optimal because setting up secure custody solutions to manage billions of dollars “requires a lot of funds and expertise, which is lacking.” CZ explained that establishing localized solutions for every country is impractical. “For each cold wallet, you need about 15 signers,” he said. “You can’t find 15 signers that are not public, that are extremely trustworthy in different parts of the world, in different geographies. They’re not incentivized by more money. They have a steady job, they’re high income, they have a nice family. You just can’t find a hundred times more of those 15 people.” The same goes for order books, exchanges and other nodes in the crypto ecosystem. “If you divide each country with their own order book, liquidity is going to suck,” CZ reiterated. During extreme volatility, localized exchanges, wallets or order books may see even wilder swings given that many will invariably handle less volume. You might also like:Bhutanese prime minister pushes for global embrace of Bitcoin mining CZ also talked about countries that are exploring crypto as part of their strategic reserves, highlighting Bhutan as a standout example. Bhutan, led by a forward-thinking king, has surplus clean energy and has been using it to mine Bitcoin, making the country an early and smart adopter of crypto for national wealth and sustainability. As for countries that are yet to jump on the crypto reserve bandwagon, CZ said that they should act sooner, because they may have to buy at much higher prices later. He recommends that governments starting with modest allocations use professional custody solutions and move to more secure cold storage as their holdings scale. You might also like:News Changpeng Zhao calls for AI agents to focus on utility instead of launching tokens Another key takeaway from CZ’s talk was his call to redirect focus toward building AI agents with real utility rather than flooding the market with useless AI tokens, a sentiment he has expressed in the past. “Today there are so many different AI agents with a token, but the agents don’t have any real utility,” he said. “I want to see real agents that can actually help you — with tokens that serve a purpose.” He criticized the rise of AI token launchpads that let anyone mint a token-backed AI agent with the click of a button. “That token is useless — 99.99% of them are useless,” he said. However, CZ believes that “it’s all going to change,” with AI poised to radically transform how people engage with the blockchain ecosystem thereby driving crypto adoption. “The currency for AI is crypto,” he said, arguing that traditional payment methods won’t work in the AI economy. “AI is not going to swipe a card or get an SMS code. That doesn’t work for AI. It’s going to be crypto.” You might also like:Binance founder Changpeng Zhao sparks debate over UAE’s alleged $40b Bitcoin holdings

中国人工智能初创公司DeepSeek一夜之间崛起，引发人们担忧，凸显了美国人工智能和经济主导地位的潜在风险。 周一，美国股市和加密货币大幅下跌，比特币（BTC）跌破 100,000 美元大关，股市价值损失 1 万亿美元。 然而，全球最大的独立金融咨询公司之一 deVere Group 的首席执行官 Nigel Green 敦促投资者保持冷静。他在一份报告中指出，比特币与任何一家公司或国家的表现无关。 比特币的弹性 虽然英伟达等美国科技股的抛售可能是合理的，但比特币的运行不受这些因素的影响。 格林说：“比特币不受任何一家公司或国家表现的影响。相反，它的设计就是为了不受这些力量的影响。” 格林进一步将比特币描述为专为经济和地缘政治不确定时期设计的资产。 他说道：“它的运作不受国界和政策的限制，因此是动荡时期的安全港。” 他强调了比特币的去中心化、无边界和有限的特性，这使得比特币成为一种脱颖而出并吸引全球投资者的资产，因为它不“与任何一个政府或公司挂钩”。

Disclosure: The views and opinions expressed here belong solely to the author and do not represent the views and opinions of crypto.news’ editorial. Tokenization has become a buzzword, unfortunately, it’s failing to prove its value. Investors remain unconvinced, and inconsistent regulations are stalling progress. Too often, assets are being tokenized just for the sake of it, without providing any improvements in accessibility, efficiency, or liquidity. Tokenized portfolios on-chain sound sexy and exciting to crypto native investors, but that’s a small niche of the market. For tokenization to truly take off, it needs buy-in from institutional and retail investors who want to modernize traditional assets, and not just create digital twins of inefficient traditional products. You might also like:Tokenization as a funding backdoor for European founders | Opinion So far, the industry’s focus has been on compliance and replicating real-world assets onchain, but mainstream investors still lack compelling reasons to engage. Despite institutional interest from firms like BlackRock, adoption remains sluggish because the industry has failed to address core investment concerns. Tokenized assets are still difficult to trade, lack liquidity, and exist in a fragmented regulatory landscape. This complication and doubt cause traditional investors with big portfolios to not even bother with the space at all—some of whom see Bitcoin (BTC) as a Ponzi scheme. Institutional investors have to get involved in making some decisions around investing in cryptocurrency, but it will take time. Providing the proper education and tools is critical when understanding how to navigate tokenized assets confidently. The core reality check Tokenization should focus on expanding practical functionality for investors. Boston Consulting Group, in a recent white paper, projects in multiple scenarios that tokenization of assets could reach trillions of dollars of Amulet (AUM) by 2030. Real value means greater liquidity, better assessment options, increased transparency, and trust in a system that can smartly utilize these assets. Currently, when you hold these assets with major institutions and custodians, your options are extremely limited. In some cases, assets can be used as collateral, but the process remains convoluted and restrictive. For example, we’re not talking about crypto native investors that put $28.6 trillion worth of assets onchain. More so, pension fund managers, and I can’t imagine them using a MetaMask wallet to hold real-world assets tokens and utilize them in a smart contract to provide decentralized finance functionality. Tokenization presents a unique opportunity to transform traditional finance. By turning static assets into smart contracts, these tokens can automate a lot of financial processes and create new use cases not available in traditional finance. However, we cannot rely on the old legacy financial infrastructure: traditional custodians, fund managers, and administrators. According to the World Economic Forum, tokenization could unlock collateral mobility that has never been possible. The process remains costly and time-consuming,and neither institutional nor retail investors will engage. It’s time to turn this into a reality and commit to delivering real, tangible value to attract long-term adoption. Make it make sense Regulatory clarity remains inconsistent and has created a fragmented market. Jurisdictions like the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Abu Dhabi Global Market are taking proactive steps, but a fragmented global landscape makes compliance a major challenge. For instance, if I want to tokenize an asset in the ADGM and ensure compatibility with a tokenized asset under the HKMA, or want to trade on a decentralized exchange, I would need to comply with both the ADGM regulations, where I am based, and the HKMA regulations. Now, imagine that there are not just two jurisdictions, but 150. When each has its own standards and rules, compliance is nearly impossible, and the dream of a seamless financial system is dead in the water. Large financial institutions and service providers are already working to find out how they can harmonize a digital asset like tokenization with a regulatory framework. We must push for a global regulatory framework for digital assets, rather than siloed frameworks of regional legislation. Without regulatory alignment, tokenized assets risk being confined to niche markets rather than achieving true global adoption. To reach financial democratization, we need utility Tokenization shouldn’t just be about digitizing old financial models; it should create new ways for assets to be utilized, traded more efficiently, and/or borrowed against. Tokenization alone is not enough. Assets must be made smarter and deliver tangible value to global investors, regulators, and service providers. Right now, many tokenized investment opportunities are still limited to qualified investors, which reinforces existing financial barriers rather than breaking them down. True democratization means opening up access to retail investors, not just tokenizing assets for institutions. This industry is still in its early stages, which means there’s still plenty of time to shape its future the right way. If regulators, jurisdictions, and innovators can align on the proper framework, the RWA tokenization sector could see massive growth by 2030. The future of tokenization depends on moving beyond the hype. Read more:Tokenization is the inevitable future of real estate | Opinion Rob Daykin Rob Daykinis a co-founder of Realize, a leading tokenization platform for real-world assets. He is at the forefront of driving growth, accessibility, and visibility in the evolving digital economy. With over 15 years of experience in fund administration and a vast knowledge of crypto and decentralized finance, Rob expertly bridges traditional finance with cutting-edge blockchain solutions. He has held senior positions at IQ-EQ and State Street Alternative Investment Solutions. Additionally, Rob is also the co-founder of Nakama Labs, a web3 venture fund and innovation hub focused on decentralized technologies.

Uniswap has added support for Soneium, a new layer-2 blockchain built by Sony Block Solutions and Startale Labs.  Uniswap Labs announced the update in a blog post on May 6. The network is now operational on the Uniswap (UNI) wallet and web app, enabling users to bridge, trade, and supply liquidity using well-known tools.  With a focus on digital entertainment, Soneium’s mainnet debuted in January 2025. The network seeks to facilitate onchain connections between creators and fans while safeguarding intellectual property. So far, it has hosted NFTs for the popular anime Solo Leveling, distributed digital collectibles at concerts, and supported event ticketing for Japanese idol groups, among other things. Sony’s goal is to bring its creative ecosystem to the blockchain. Jun Watanabe, Chairman of Sony Block Solutions Labs, said the company aims to “build a world-class blockchain for creators, fans, and developers.” He added that Uniswap’s tools will help Soneium users interact more easily with web3. You might also like:Uniswap price could surge as Unichain flips Ethereum, Polygon, Sei in key metrics Startale chief executive officer Sota Watanabe said the partnership makes it easier for people to join the onchain economy, and that Uniswap gives Soneium a strong way to reach global users. “At Startale, we’re building blockchain infrastructure that empowers global innovation as part of Sony Block Solutions Labs — and Uniswap Labs’ reach and credibility give Soneium a strong distribution layer. By combining Uniswap Labs’ leading DEX infrastructure with the scalable Layer-2 network, we’re making it easier for users to participate in a seamless, creator-led economy.” — Sota Watanabe, CEO of Startale Group Uniswap Labs, on the other hand, noted that the move supports its mission of creating open, permissionless markets. When assets are locked into separate platforms, creators often struggle to get the most value from their work. With Uniswap’s infrastructure, they can share and earn across the entire ecosystem. The integration comes as Uniswap continues on its positive growth trajectory. Its own layer-2 chain, Unichain, has processed $5.7 billion in trades since its launch, as per DEX Analytics data. Uniswap has also launched liquidity rewards and recently crossed $3 trillion in total swap volume. In another important development, in February, the Securities and Exchange Commission ended its investigation into Uniswap with no enforcement, opening the door to deeper entry into the U.S. market. Read more:Uniswap, Coinbase, and NYSE execs to join SEC roundtable on crypto trading regulations

短短三个月内，是什么发生了变化，让比特币从 10.9 万美元涨至 8.2 万美元？仅仅是通胀数据，还是幕后发生了更大的事情？ 目录比特币第一季度遭遇七年来最冷淡时期解码加密幻灯片What consumer confidence says about crypto’s next movesFurther declines ahead? 比特币第一季度遭遇七年来最冷淡时期 就在三个月前，加密货币市场的气氛还十分热烈。比特币 (BTC) 飙升至 109,000 美元以上，以太坊 (ETH) 保持强势，随着支持加密货币的唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫，一股新的乐观情绪席卷了整个市场。但随着 2025 年第一季度的结束，这种乐观情绪已悄然消退，转而陷入不确定性。 截至 3 月 31 日，比特币交易价格约为 82,000 美元，本季度下跌近 13%。它有望创下七年来最差的第一季度表现，结束连续两年第一季度的强劲上涨势头。 为了更清楚地说明这一点，比特币在 2023 年第一季度上涨了 72%，在 2024 年第一季度又上涨了 69%。上次第一季度出现如此严重的下跌是在 2018 年，当时在 ICO 热潮的影响下，比特币暴跌了近 50%。 然而，以太坊的跌幅更大。按市值计算，以太坊是第二大加密货币，本季度跌幅高达 46.4%，目前交易价格接近 1,800 美元。这与 2018 年第一季度 46.6% 的跌幅几乎相同，这是七年来第一季度表现最差的一次。 Yet when we zoom out, a more nuanced picture begins to emerge. Between 2017 and 2025, Bitcoin has ended Q1 in the red four times out of nine, while Ethereum has seen three losing Q1s in the same stretch. 此次经济衰退的突出之处在于其更广泛的背景：持续的通胀、脆弱的投资者信心以及不断加剧的地缘政治风险。 所以现在的问题是——这只是季节性下滑，还是未来更深层次问题的征兆？随着宏观环境转向有利于加密货币，价格会反弹吗？让我们仔细看看。 解码加密幻灯片 3 月 28 日，美国公布 2 月份核心个人消费支出 (PCE) 指数（美联储密切关注的关键通胀指标）后，加密货币市场遭受重创。 同比增长2.8%，略高于预期的2.7%，但足以让投资者感到不安。 Unlike headline inflation, core PCE strips out the noise of food and energy prices, offering a clearer view of persistent pricing trends. And that clear view revealed that inflation isn’t cooling as quickly as markets had hoped. This inflation surprise landed just as concerns over global trade were heating up. President Donald Trump’s hardline tariff strategy has introduced a fresh wave of macroeconomic tension. 2 月初，美国威胁对加拿大和墨西哥商品征收 25% 的关税。随后，美国又对所有中国进口商品征收 20% 的关税，原因是中国涉嫌参与芬太尼贩运。 从钢铁和铝到汽车，甚至委内瑞拉的石油，几乎没有哪个行业能幸免。美国政府公布了一份约 15 个国家的名单，这些国家被称为“肮脏的 15 国”，可能很快就会因为贸易不平衡和地缘政治摩擦而面临对等关税。 全球反击迅速而有力。中国对美国农产品出口征收关税。欧盟正在制定一项分阶段征收关税的计划，涵盖约 280 亿美元的美国商品。加拿大则以 600 亿加元的报复性关税予以反击，而墨西哥据说将在 4 月初敲定自己的措施。 不出所料，市场对这种不确定性反应不佳。PCE 数据公布当天，标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克 100 指数均下跌超过 2%，市值蒸发逾 1 万亿美元。 在更广泛的避险情绪中，加密货币受到拖累。随着投资者的紧张情绪加剧，ETH、Ripple (XRP)、Solana (SOL) 和其他山寨币等资产回吐了近期涨幅，而比特币在不断加剧的宏观压力下苦苦挣扎。 据 Glassnode 称，最近的大部分销售来自短期持有者——那些在过去五个月内购买了比特币并且现在对价格波动做出反应的人。 #Bitcoin 市场中的所有损失实现目前都来自短期持有者（155 天），他们仍处于盈利状态，并且是获利回吐的主要来源。pic.twitter.com/S2v6Cq0BQt— glassnode (@glassnode) 2025 年 3 月 28 日 与此同时，长期持有者（持有超过 155 天的投资者）仍然保持盈利，并且似乎是当前获利回吐活动的主要来源。 随着长期通胀预期飙升至 4.1%（这是自 1993 年以来的最高水平），许多交易员已转向防御立场，将资本转为现金。就在三个月前，即关税推出之前，这些预期接近 2.6%。 数小时后，密歇根大学通胀预期数据公布。美国长期通胀预期正式飙升至4.1%，为1993年以来的最高水平。此前，通胀上升对市场的影响相当明显。周五 GDPNow 数据公布后，情况发生了变化。pic.twitter.com/0Qh3AqouDM— Kobeissi 的来信 (@KobeissiLetter) 2025 年 3 月 29 日 What consumer confidence says about crypto’s next moves According to the Conference Board, U.S. consumer sentiment continued its downward slide in March. The Consumer Confidence Index, released on March 25, fell for the fourth consecutive month, landing at 92.9. More concerning, however, was the drop in the Expectations Index, which plunged 9.6 points to 65.2. That’s its lowest reading since 2013 and far below the 80-point threshold that’s often seen as a warning sign of an impending recession. 预期指数衡量家庭对未来几个月收入、商业状况和就业前景的看法。跌至这些水平表明人们正在重新调整他们的前景。当预期变暗时，风险行为往往会迅速转变。 市场开始出现日益谨慎的情绪。目前，只有 37.4% 的调查参与者相信未来一年股价会上涨，较 2 月份大幅下降 10 个百分点，创一年多以来最大月度跌幅。 与此同时，人们对就业的乐观情绪正在消退。预期就业岗位增加的消费者比例从 18.8% 下降到 16.7%，而预期就业岗位减少的消费者比例则上升到 28.5%。 这种环境不利于高风险投资。由于通胀持续高企，全球贸易不确定性不断上升，投资者纷纷撤离，而加密货币是首批感受到压力的行业之一。风险偏好正在降温，资本开始转向更安全、更具防御性的投资。 未来还会进一步下跌吗？ As Q1 draws to a close on a downbeat note for both crypto and traditional markets, the big question now is what comes next? 总体而言，我们看到了疲软的迹象。尤其是美国股市，显示出更广泛的疲软迹象。《Kobeissi 通讯》指出，“标普 500 指数期货正式进入调整区域”，并强调仅在四个交易日内，市值就蒸发了超过 2.7 万亿美元。 突发消息：标准普尔 500 指数期货正式进入回调区域，4 天市值损失达 2.7 万亿美元。纳斯达克 100 指数目前距离进入熊市仅剩 5.5%。pic.twitter.com/zKYpmAnLX0— Kobeissi 的来信 (@KobeissiLetter) 2025 年 3 月 31 日 与此同时，纳斯达克 100 指数仅比官方熊市水平高出 5.5%。这很重要，因为加密货币，尤其是比特币，与科技含量高、风险高的资产的关联性越来越强。当纳斯达克指数下跌时，加密货币往往也会随之下跌。 Even major institutional buys aren’t reversing the trend. MicroStrategy’s latest move — purchasing $1.92 billion worth of Bitcoin and adding over 22,000 BTC to its holdings failed to stem the slide. “Saylor just added 22,048 BTC… but Bitcoin still closed the week in red,” observed CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn, pointing to the strength of macro headwinds weighing on the market. Saylor 刚刚向堆栈中添加了 22,048 个 BTC……但比特币本周仍以亏损收盘 🔻即使 MicroStrategy 施加了 19.2 亿美元的购买压力，价格仍下跌了数个百分点。ðŸ˜ðŸ˜… https://t.co/h3RKv0jFgo pic.twitter.com/oiXaHrfCYp— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) 2025 年 3 月 31 日 从长期趋势来看，更多的警示灯正在闪烁。黄金相对于比特币的相对强度一直在稳步攀升。 十多年来，黄金/比特币比率首次突破了 12 年的下行趋势，引发了人们对在宏观不确定性日益加剧的情况下加密货币如何重新定价的质疑。 黄金/BTC 打破 12 年下跌趋势 pic.twitter.com/zlX4wWKpKS— Joe Carlasare (@JoeCarlasare) 2025 年 3 月 31 日 作为传统的避险资产，黄金似乎正在吸引人们新的兴趣，有可能吸引资本脱离比特币和以太坊等风险较高的资产。 以太坊尤其承受着额外的压力。技术分析师 Michaël van de Poppe 将其价格结构描述为令人深感担忧：“ETH 的图表极其糟糕，”他指出，以太坊的局部底部可能与黄金近期的强势相吻合。 A massively disastrous chart for $ETH.我不知道这个价格会在哪里触底，但我怀疑黄金的峰值和以太坊的底部是相关的。pic.twitter.com/78r7uaXYLK— Michael van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) 2025 年 3 月 29 日 经济预测也趋于谨慎。高盛最近将美国经济衰退的可能性从 20% 上调至 35%，原因是人们担心关税和金融环境收紧可能会对经济增长造成超出预期的阻碍。 不过，转变可能正在发生。全球宏观投资者宏观研究主管朱利安·比特尔 (Julien Bittel) 认为，一些最糟糕的情况可能已经被市场消化。 他解释道，金融状况往往会滞后 10 到 12 周才能影响市场，而当前第一季度的波动可能源于 2024 年第四季度的政策紧缩。 Supporting that view, recent declines in the U.S. dollar, bond yields, and one-year inflation breakevens hint that markets may be moving beyond peak stress. 比特尔补充道：“在 4 月 2 日宣布征收关税后，短期内可能仍会出现波动或最终下跌，但此后阻力最小的路径似乎会更高。”他认为 4 月是一个潜在的转折点，特别是如果宏观数据改善且流动性开始缓解的话。 如果宏观条件稳定、通胀预期回落、金融流动性回归，加密货币可能会受益于风险偏好的反弹。 但如果关税僵局加剧或经济衰退担忧加深，市场可能继续承压，尤其是在大量短期持有者仍然活跃和被动的情况下。 不过，谨慎仍然有必要。市场正处于这样一个阶段：积极的催化剂需要时间才能转化为价格行动，信心恢复缓慢。明智地交易，永远不要投资超过你能承受的损失。 披露：本文不代表投资建议。本页内容和材料仅供教育之用。