随着中国对美国商品征收 84% 的关税，比特币跌至 76,000 美元——美联储会干预吗？

随着比特币下跌以及美中关税税率达到 84%，这是否标志着新一轮系统性抛售的开始，还是美联储能够控制其后果？

北京宣布对美国进一步加征关税

近日，中美贸易紧张局势迅速升级，全球金融市场面临明显压力。

4 月 6 日，中国对美国关税升级进行反击，宣布对美国商品征收 34% 的反关税，直接回应特朗普总统几天前根据其新的“解放日”关税政策征收的 34% 的关税。

In turn, Trump said that if China doesn’t withdraw its countermeasure, the U.S. will impose an additional 50% tariff on top of existing levies.

由于自3月份以来已经实施了20%的基准关税，一些中国进口产品可能面临高达104%的累计税负。

如今，紧张局势进一步升级。4月9日，中国公布了更为强硬的应对措施：对美国商品加征总计84%的关税，自4月10日起生效。这其中包括此前已上调的34%，表明北京方面决定加倍努力，而非缓和局势。

U.S. stock futures fell sharply on Wednesday as China announced sweeping retaliatory tariffs on American goods. Dow futures sank 790 points, or 2.1%, while S&P 500 futures dropped 1.8%. Nasdaq-100 futures also declined, down 1.5%.

As of Apr. 8, the S&P 500 has dropped below the 5,000 mark for the first time in nearly a year and is now down 18.9% from its February high, close to the technical threshold of a bear market. 

According to LSEG, S&P 500 companies have lost $5.8 trillion in market value over the past four days, marking the steepest four-day decline since the index was created. Japan’s Nikkei and other Asian markets have also started showing similar downward trends.

Crypto markets have not been immune. The global crypto market cap has fallen to $2.45 trillion, down from $3.66 trillion in mid-January, just before Trump’s inauguration. 

Bitcoin (BTC), which had hit an all-time high of $109,000 in January, is now trading around $76,000, with lows of $74,500 seen in the past 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) is down over 20% in the past week, currently trading near $1,450.

根据价格波动、交易量和社会趋势追踪市场情绪的加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数已跌至 18。这一水平被归类为“极度恐惧”，自 2022 年 6 月以来从未见过。

鉴于这些情况，人们越来越多地猜测美联储是否会考虑在短期内降息，以及如果降息，这将对数字资产意味着什么。让我们来一探究竟。

数据实际上告诉我们什么

金融市场近期走势表明，市场正处于持续承压期，而非短期回调。标普 500 指数已进入 1940 年以来第 11 大连续下跌行情，过去四个交易日累计下跌 12.1%。

这使得当前的下降幅度与 2020 年 3 月、2008 年 10 月和 2001 年 9 月的下降幅度处于相同的统计范围内，这些时期的特点是宏观经济或地缘政治动荡更为广泛。

波动率指数 (VIX) 也持续高位。VIX 连续第三天收于 45 上方。8. 近几十年来，这种模式仅出现过三次——分别是在 2008 年、2020 年以及现在的 2025 年的熊市期间。

虽然它本身并不是一个预测信号，但它反映了整个系统更广泛的风险重新定价，波动性在较长时间内保持在正常阈值以上。

除了股票市场之外，债券市场也持续动荡，部分原因是套利交易的平仓以及对通胀的持续担忧，而通胀可能比之前认为的更加持久。

一些分析师指出，当前的波动使得投资者更难以自信地评估风险溢价和对未来预期进行定价。

人们对美联储快速放松政策的预期也越来越怀疑。经济学家努里尔·鲁比尼等人指出，市场可能过快地认为央行会采取强力干预措施。

According to this view, any potential support is likely to be delayed or muted unless political rhetoric, particularly from President Trump on trade matters, is reined in.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has indicated that rate hikes will continue if domestic conditions improve as projected. 

However, he also noted that global trade tensions remain a key variable, suggesting that monetary policy abroad may remain reactive rather than proactive until the broader picture stabilizes.

Will the Fed cut rates?

As the U.S. economy faces renewed pressure, investors are rethinking how soon the Federal Reserve might be forced to act.

根据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的美联储观察工具，美联储在5月6日至7日举行的下次会议上降息25个基点的可能性已升至54%。就在一周前，这个数字还只有10%。

这一突然变化反映出人们日益担心，部分由关税相关冲击引发的持续金融压力可能会比预期更快地影响消费者信心和商业投资。

但美联储发出的信号依然谨慎。旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利本周表示，目前“不急于”降息。

尽管她承认关税引发了一些短期通胀担忧，但她指出，经济增长依然强劲，政策目前“处于良好状态”。

美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒也表达了类似的观点。她认为，近期通胀上升可能是由新关税影响的预期所驱动，而不一定是潜在价格趋势的根本转变。

Kugler reiterated the Fed’s commitment to its 2% inflation target, emphasizing that keeping long-term inflation expectations anchored remains a top priority.

Still, not everyone agrees that waiting is the right move. Peter Schiff, a financial commentator and well-known Bitcoin critic, argues that the Treasury market is already signaling deeper instability, with yields on 10- and 30-year bonds reaching 4.5% and 5%, respectively. He warns that without a rapid rate cut and a liquidity injection, the strain could worsen.

Crypto analyst Quinten observed a similar trend, noting that investors aren’t moving into traditional safe havens like government bonds even as stocks decline. 

当股票和债券同时下跌时，通常反映出流动性条件收紧，而加密资产往往会对此做出快速反应。

If the Fed does decide to cut rates, digital assets could benefit from the renewed availability of liquidity. Historically, lower interest rates have pushed more capital into higher-risk, growth-oriented assets, crypto included. 

A rate cut could ease the current selling pressure and potentially restore investor appetite, especially for assets like Bitcoin that have previously performed well during expansionary policy periods.

On the other hand, if the Fed holds rates steady and adopts a wait-and-see approach, crypto markets could remain under pressure, particularly if the broader financial environment continues to deteriorate. 

Liquidity remains a key input for crypto valuation, and without clear signs of relief, the sector may continue to reflect the strain seen in other asset classes.