由于贸易相关风险持续上升,比特币价格稳定在 80,000 美元的关键支撑位上方。
周五上午,比特币 (BTC) 交易价格为 83,230 美元,过去几天一直维持这一水平。这一水平较 3 月份的最低点上涨了 9%。
比特币的表现超过了美国股市。道琼斯指数周五暴跌超过 1,080 点,而前一天下跌超过 1,000 点。目前,该指数已从 2024 年高点下跌 13%,徘徊在 2023 年 8 月的水平附近。
其他指数表现更差。纳斯达克100指数已正式进入熊市,较今年高点下跌逾20%。标普500指数和罗素2000指数也出现大幅下跌。
Still, two macro catalysts may help Bitcoin and equities find support. First, the bond market has surged this week, with yields continuing their downward trend. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time in months. Meanwhile, the 30-year and 2-year yields declined to 4.40% and 3.57%, respectively.
Falling yields suggest rising fears of a potential recession, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to intervene. Historically, the Fed has two main tools in its playbook: interest rate cuts and quantitative easing. Both have historically been bullish for risk assets like Bitcoin and stocks â as seen during the Covid-19 pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis.
另一个潜在的比特币催化剂是市场日益增长的恐慌情绪。CNN 恐惧与贪婪指数已从 1 月份的 50 跌至 4 的极度恐惧区域,凸显了市场参与者普遍的恐慌情绪。
与此同时,加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数已跌至 25,稳居恐惧区。从历史上看,股票和加密货币市场往往在恐惧达到顶峰时反弹,这与沃伦·巴菲特的名言相呼应:“当别人恐惧时我贪婪,当别人贪婪时我恐惧。”
周线图显示,尽管近期有所回调,但比特币仍处于上升趋势。它目前交易价格略高于自 2022 年 10 月以来的上升通道下限。
BTC 也一直保持在 50 周移动平均线上方,这是目前多头仍占主导地位的另一个迹象。因此,一旦当前的市场恐慌浪潮消退,比特币很有可能恢复看涨趋势。