Pi Coin 暴跌近 80%——Pi Network 是否会因自身重量而崩溃？

Pi Coin 在推出仅几周后就暴跌 78%，并且还有更多的代币解锁和延迟，Pi Network 能否恢复用户信任？

From top 10 to tumbling

In February, Pi Network (PI) burst onto the scene with the kind of hype most cryptocurrencies only dream of. The long-awaited mainnet launch of Pi Network finally happened, and within days, the token was riding high, reaching an all-time high of $2.98 on Feb. 26.

有一段时间，它甚至跻身市值前 10 大加密货币之列，与行业巨头并驾齐驱。然而，时间快进到 4 月 2 日，情况就远没有那么光鲜了。

截至本文撰写时，Pi 币的交易价格仅为 0.66 美元，较一个多月前的峰值大幅下跌了 78%。此次崩盘导致市值蒸发约 145 亿美元，市值从近 200 亿美元缩水至仅 45.6 亿美元。

当我们缩小视野时，情况就变得更加模糊了。根据 PiScan 的数据，仅本月就有超过 1.24 亿个 Pi 代币将被解锁。而这仅仅是个开始。

每月解锁量将继续攀升，7 月份将达到 2.33 亿的峰值。总体而言，明年将有超过 15.3 亿个新代币进入市场，使总流通供应量达到 82 亿个。

That’s a massive jump for a network that already sits at 6.7 billion in supply and is aiming for a maximum cap of 100 billion. At this pace, Pi is quickly earning a reputation as one of the most inflationary digital assets out there.

Meanwhile, exchange support remains uneven. OKX was the first major platform to list Pi, followed by Bitget, Gate.io, and MEXC, with Gate.io currently leading in trading volume.

But the token still hasn’t made it to most tier-1 exchanges. Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, and Bybit have all stayed away. In fact, Bybit’s CEO went as far as calling Pi a “scam,” a label its developers strongly deny.

那么，Pi Network 的幕后到底发生了什么？随着更多代币涌入市场，投资者在未来几周和几个月内可以期待什么？让我们来分析一下。

故障、延误和死胡同

Pi 币价格大幅下跌的背后存在着一系列内部摩擦——这些问题与市场情绪关系不大，而更多地与运营故障和掌舵人的沉默有关。

最大的挫折之一就是一个瓶颈：KYC。了解您的客户验证是用于确认用户身份的标准流程，但对于 Pi Network 庞大的用户群来说，它却成了一场噩梦。

此步骤是强制性的。没有它，用户就无法将他们开采的 Pi 代币迁移到主网，这意味着没有交易，没有提款，并且基本上无法获得他们认为自己已经获得的价值。

Reports indicate that despite the Open Network launch on Feb. 20, and the extended KYC and migration grace period till Mar. 14, the Pi Core Team has struggled to process the backlog for its estimated 60 million-plus users. 

从第三方提供商 Yoti 转向专有 KYC 系统旨在提高可扩展性，但诸如“暂定批准”状态阻碍了进展等技术故障，让许多用户陷入困境。

一些估计表明，只有大约 1400 万用户成功迁移，突显出严重的容量问题。

社交媒体平台，尤其是 X，充斥着 Pi 用户应对这种糟糕体验的第一手资料。

一位用户分享了她的 Pi 币最初被标记为已迁移，然后意外地在没有任何解释的情况下返回，让她陷入重新确认和等待的循环中。

Another reported losing 1,427 Pi tokens simply because his migration didn’t complete before the grace period expired, despite being in the queue the whole time.

类似这样的故事激起了人们的愤怒和焦虑，尤其是那些花费数年时间挖掘代币并希望最终获得访问权限的人。沉默加剧了这种反弹。Pi Core 团队（通常称为 PCT）一直对自己的底牌讳莫如深。

There’s been little transparency on major aspects of the roadmap. Users have no clear updates on validator incentives, the state of dApp development, or even what happened with the proceeds from Pi’s .pi domain auction.

The truth may be far less dramatic, but the absence of consistent communication is allowing speculation to dominate the narrative. A user bluntly put it, “Getting to new highs from here might be really difficult.”

活动讲述了不同的故事

Pi Network 展示其实际应用的最新尝试是通过 3 月 14 日至 3 月 21 日举行的全球商家计划 PiFest。该活动旨在推动日常应用，展示 Pi 如何在实际环境中使用，无论是用于杂货、服装、汽车维修还是数字服务。

On paper, the reported numbers seemed impressive. More than 125,000 merchants registered, including 58,000 active sellers, and around 1.8 million Pioneers participated. But behind the scale, actual network activity told a different story.

On-chain data indicates that payment volume showed little change during the event. As one user noted on X, “The number of payments during the current #PiFest has not increased significantly,” suggesting that many users were hesitant to spend their tokens or preferred to hold onto them while uncertainty around Pi’s future remains.

这种犹豫反映出生态系统中存在更深层次的裂痕。Pi 之前曾致力于构建广泛的去中心化应用基础，以让用户参与挖矿和点对点传输以外的活动。

However, third-party reviews show that only a small number of dApps are currently operational, and those that exist lack meaningful utility when compared to platforms like Ethereum (ETH) or Solana (SOL). Without a strong application layer, there is limited motivation for daily token usage.

One of Pi’s headline strategies was its planned integration with Telegram’s crypto wallet. Initially positioned as a move to expand reach, the effort has not yet resulted in meaningful engagement or visible outcomes.

与此同时，对隐私的担忧也开始浮出水面。Pi 的 KYC 系统采用社区驱动的过程，用户使用自拍视频和身份证检查来验证他人。

虽然这种方法旨在扩大访问权限，但它也存在风险。如果编辑失败，个人信息可能会被泄露，这已成为用户日益担心的问题。

总的来说，Pi 的生态系统似乎仍处于发展阶段。除非平台为商家提供真正的激励措施、提高用户信心并提供实用的应用程序，否则无论技术上有多少用户加入，主流采用仍可能遥不可及。

成败时刻

Pi Network 正在进入加密领域许多人所说的关键实用阶段。在这个阶段，单靠炒作已不足以维持价值，现实世界的使用、开发者活动和生态系统实力等因素开始决定一个项目是会持续下去还是会逐渐消亡。

History offers plenty of cautionary tales. Projects that failed to move beyond this stage, such as BitConnect, OneCoin, and even more credible names like NEM and Verge, eventually collapsed due to a mix of lofty promises and underwhelming delivery.

The cycle tends to repeat itself. It starts with early user excitement and rapid valuation growth, followed by delays in execution, and ends in growing skepticism and loss of confidence.

对于投资者来说，未来几个月将是关键。关注链上发生的事情。跟踪实际迁移的钱包数量，关注代币解锁时间表，避免在没有背景的情况下过度解读价格走势。

除非 Pi 能够显示出真正的用户活动、更好的代币管理和更成熟的生态系统的迹象，否则任何短期反弹都不太可能持续。与往常一样，谨慎对待市场，切勿投资超过您能承受的损失。