特朗普发表解放日演讲后比特币价格可能上涨

Radix 是一个高性能 Layer 1 区块链，它提议从其金库中重新分配 10 亿 XRD，用于一项为期两年的社区激励计划，旨在深化生态系统参与度并改善长期代币经济学——将自己定位为一种刻意的“空投解毒剂”。 编者注：本文已更新，以反映 10 亿 XRD 社区激励计划是一项提议，而非确认的启动；crypto.news 对之前的错误描述表示歉意。 这项新计划于4月14日宣布，将把先前提议的稳定币项目的资金转用于支持Radix (XRD)，该计划被称为一项多季度、基于积分的奖励活动，旨在激励有意义的活动。参与者将通过持有或质押XRD、提供流动性、执行DEX掉期以及参与借贷活动来赚取积分。NFT互动和dApp使用也将获得奖励。 Radix 首席技术官兼创始人 Dan Hughes 表示：“用户将根据有意义的活动获得积分。我们希望确保用户深入且持续地参与生态系统，而不是仅仅为了提升市值而被动地囤积代币。” Radix 正在与传统的空投策略保持距离，因为它认为这种策略不可持续，而且容易吸引短期“雇佣兵”用户。 如果获得批准，该活动的结构将旨在建立强大的流动性，同时为生态系统中的 dApp 和开发人员创建更强大的基础。 您可能还喜欢：a16z 加密货币政策主管表示，空投应该获得监管的“安全港” 重新分配财政资金以推动用户增长 休斯将重新分配视为一种战略支点，以更好地适应 Radix 当前的增长轨迹。 “还有什么选择？”他问道。“在竞争对手吸引用户并主导流动性的同时，对这24亿XRD不做任何处理？还是烧掉它，寄希望于短期的快闪？选择很明确：重新利用这笔储备，让Radix成为下一代DeFi的家园。” 该公告是在 Radix 的 Hyperscale 测试网推出之前发布的，该测试网的目标是实现每秒 100 万笔复杂交易的持续吞吐量，这一可扩展性基准远远超出了当前 Layer 1 在生产中所展示的水平。 根据新闻稿，这一即将到来的里程碑代表着“行业走向超大规模的唯一真正途径”。 为了支持这一推动，Radix 提出的激励活动旨在迅速吸引更多用户、资本和流动性，使该网络成为下一波 DeFi 应用的有力竞争者。 You might also like:研究显示，美国加密货币投资者可能因地理封锁空投损失高达 50 亿美元

以太坊已跌破 1,600 美元大关，但链上和技术信号暗示市场可能正在进入关键的积累阶段。 根据 CryptoQuant 贡献者 abramchart 在 4 月 17 日的分析，以太坊 (ETH) 的交易价格接近其实际价格水平，从历史上看，这一区域通常会出现大幅反弹。目前的实际价格约为 1,585 美元，这已成为深度价值积累的可靠信号。 ETH 历史上的每一次大牛市都是在价格跌至或低于这一水平时开始的。以太坊正在接近已实现价格模型的下限，这表明市场正在降温，并可能促使长期持有者重新入场。 不过，技术指标依然涨跌互现。ETH 已跌破 20 日移动平均线，并远低于 200 日移动平均线，表明下行趋势强劲。相对强弱指数徘徊在 40 下方，反映出动能较弱，但尚未完全超卖。每日布林带仍然处于收缩状态，反映出波动性较低，但无论朝哪个方向，都可能即将出现决定性走势。 ETH 价格分析。来源：crypto.news 如果下行趋势持续，ETH 可能在 1,450-1,550 美元区间获得支撑，该区间历来被视为底部区域。当前阻力位在 1,670 美元附近，而更大的上方压力可能出现在 1,930 美元区域。 您可能还喜欢：以太坊联合创始人 Vitalik Buterin 提出了简化的第一层隐私路线图 从基本面来看，正如币安研究院 4 月 16 日的一篇文章所指出的，自 Dencun 升级以来，以太坊在 Layer 1 上的价值捕获能力已显著减弱。虽然由于引入了 Blob，可扩展性提升了近 16 倍，但这一变化也降低了 Layer 1 的手续费收入。 随着用户迁移到更便宜的第 2 层，ETH 作为“超声波货币”的角色已经减弱，相对于速度更快、费用更低的 Solana (SOL) 和 BNB Chain (BNB) 等竞争对手，其吸引力有所下降。 Santiment 4 月 16 日的分析显示，以太坊费用已降至 5 年来的最低水平，平均每笔交易仅为 0.168 美元。这表明使用量和拥堵程度正在下降，但从反向角度来看，这可能暗示着潜在的反弹。 突发新闻：以太坊手续费降至五年来最低，目前交易成本仅为 0.168 美元。这是自 2020 年 5 月 2 日以来，以太币转账的最低每日成本。我们将在最新洞察中对此进行简要分析。👇https://t.co/fg5CfRgsHn pic.twitter.com/QlLwyzdm1F— Santiment (@santimentfeed) 2025年4月16日 从历史上看，低于 1 美元的低费用通常预示着价格反弹。正如 Santiment 所指出的：“散户投资者对某项资产（尤其是仍在蓬勃发展的资产）的抛售程度越高，最终出现意外反弹且阻力较小的可能性就越大。” 此次回调很大程度上可能与更广泛的宏观不确定性有关。Santiment 观察到，交易员对关税和经济新闻高度敏感，通常会推迟 ETH 交易，直至全球形势更加明朗。 阅读更多：DeFi 和 Layer 2 链是否正在榨干以太坊的利润：深入探讨 ETH 的衰落

Bitcoin dominance has been growing steadily after dropping to 40% in November 2022. This April, Bitcoin dominance crossed the 64% mark, meaning that the market cap of Bitcoin accounts for nearly two-thirds of the entire crypto market capitalization. While some still wait for the altcoin season to begin, others state this cycle is different, and there will probably be no altcoin seasons ever again. Bitcoin dominance is nearing 64%, last seen at the peak of the 2020 bear market.This isn't just a $BTC move. Its capital rotating out of alts.Historically, this level has been a turning point. If it breaks 66%, alts might bleed harder before a true altseason.Watch closely👀 pic.twitter.com/5EudWiQkJX— nordin.eth (@nordin_eth) April 17, 2025 What does the Bitcoin dominance metric indicate? Bitcoin dominance is a metric indicating the share of Bitcoin in the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization. When Bitcoin was the only cryptocurrency in the world, it had a 100% share. As soon as other cryptocurrencies began to emerge, Bitcoin’s dominance began to decrease. However, Bitcoin has always been the most expensive crypto, so it took years for the rest of the crypto market to gain a substantial share of the market. 2017 was a transformative year, when the rise of Ethereum-based tokens and especially an ICO boom dragged Bitcoin dominance from 96% down below 40% by 2018. From 2018 to 2020, Bitcoin’s share has been volatile, moving in high amplitude. In the first half of 2021, Bitcoin dominance dropped from 70% to around 40% in the wake of the rise in the DeFi market. The year also saw an NFT market surge, and most NFTs were built on Ethereum and BNB Chain. It may seem that the Bitcoin dominance chart is rather a reflection of the market state, but it is also an indicator used by traders and investors to figure out the market sentiment and correct their trading/investment strategies.  For instance, declining Bitcoin dominance was seen as a crypto rally sign, as in the bull market, traders and investors were eagerly experimenting with altcoins. High Bitcoin dominance was usually seen as a sign of a bear market, a period when crypto investors preferred to stick with the best store of value, Bitcoin, rather than invest in riskier altcoins. However, some experts think that this cycle will change the altcoins’ role in the crypto market. You might also like:CoinW interview: Bitcoin dominance grows as altcoin market struggles How soon is the altcoin season? “Bitcoin, not crypto,” — a motto especially popular among Bitcoin maximalists, is now reflecting a new trend in crypto investment. Scott Melker, a host of the Wolf of All Streets, has referred to a model in which investors eagerly buy both Bitcoin and altcoins as “a washing machine,” in which value is endlessly circulating between Bitcoin and altcoins with gradual inflows of new money.  In an interview with Crypto.news, CoinW CSO Nassar Achkar claims that this cycle is different. Instead of buying the dip to sell high, investors buy Bitcoin whenever they can and never sell it. More than that, fewer people are eager to exchange Bitcoin for altcoins. The idea of Bitcoin as a reserve currency has been boosted by governments and corporations and is spreading among retail investors.  Governments and corporations themselves became massive Bitcoin buyers. They spend millions of dollars to buy bitcoins. These dollars are new for the market, not some gains from the altcoin trading. This new money is staying in Bitcoin, as no one sells it. That’s an outlook that explains the growing Bitcoin dominance. Bitcoin gets pumped with new fiat inflows, while altcoins’ share is slowly fading away. As Melker outlines it, “altcoins are bleeding against BTC because holders are selling to pay bills, not to rotate into Bitcoin.” The Cryptoverse CEO, Benjamin Cowen, noted that the Bitcoin dominance is 69% if we exclude stablecoins. When asked about the altcoin season, he just shared a chart indicating that the altcoin/BTC pairs should decline even more before they bounce back and start growing. I think #ALT / #BTC pairs need to go down before they can go up pic.twitter.com/ULAodEPGp2— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) April 16, 2025 Some believe the altseason will be on time. Although the logic of those who say that altcoins will no longer get massive is pretty solid, belief in altcoins is not pointless.  The thing is that we can’t know what will happen with the crypto market in the next couple of years. The new trends like DeFi or NFT booms in the past may accelerate the altcoin market and unleash a new altseason. It depends on new technologies and the mass appeal of those technologies.  It’s not the first time that Bitcoin dominance is on the rise. It was happening in 2018 and the first half of 2019, but then it turned out that altcoins are anything but dead.  Without a doubt, Bitcoin is the word of this season. It doesn’t cast a shadow on a sudden gold price rally. And, who knows, probably in 2028, there will be a new word that will change everything, and Bitcoin dominance will drop below 50% like it did in 2022. You might also like:2025 is no longer about cycles — Bitcoin is reading something else entirely

Global M2 money supply is at an all-time high — so why isn’t Bitcoin surging? Is something broken, or is a delayed breakout coming? 目录美联储会议临近，市场紧张不安M2流动性上升量化紧缩政策可能即将结束流动性激增遭遇机构不确定性 Markets on edge as the Fed meeting looms Markets are heading into the Federal Reserve’s Mar. 18-19 meeting with mounting uncertainty as economic conditions remain volatile. Stock markets have stumbled, inflation remains persistent, and investors are reassessing their expectations for interest rate cuts. Adding to the unpredictability, President Trump’s tariff policies and federal layoffs have raised fresh concerns about the broader economic outlook, injecting further instability into an already fragile market. Despite the turbulence, the Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%, with CME Group’s FedWatch tool assigning a 99% probability to no immediate adjustments. However, the real focus is on the timing of the first rate cut. Current projections suggest a potential reduction in June, with a 55% chance that rates will move to 4-4.25%.  总体而言，投资者预计 2025 年美联储将累计降息四分之三个百分点，这可能使美联储基准利率降至 3.5-3.75%。 在这种不确定性中，金融市场做出了强烈反应。标准普尔 500 指数已从 2 月 19 日的历史高点下跌超过 8%，而纳斯达克指数在 3 月 10 日暴跌 4%，这是自 2022 年以来最糟糕的交易日。 与此同时，波动率指数飙升至8月份以来的最高水平，反映出投资者在应对不断变化的政策，尤其是特朗普的关税上调时面临的困难。 比特币 (BTC) 也一直在苦苦寻找立足点，截至 3 月 18 日，价格仍在 82,300 美元左右波动，较 1 月份 109,114 美元的历史高点下跌近 25%。 BTC 价格图表 | 来源：crypto.news The question now is: What comes next? How will markets react if the Fed signals a shift in policy? And what does all of this mean for crypto in the coming weeks? Rising M2 liquidity Global liquidity is surging, and history suggests that risk assets like Bitcoin may soon react. As of Mar. 10, global M2 money supply reached an all-time high of $108.2 trillion, marking a 3.5% increase from its 2025 low of $104.5 trillion recorded on Jan. 6. 比特币和全球 M2 增长图 | 来源：BGeometrics 然而，在这一周期中，尽管流动性增加，但比特币的价格走势却表现出不一致，这引发了人们对是否存在延迟反应的质疑。 M2 货币供应量是衡量全球流动性的广义指标，涵盖现金、支票存款和易于转换的准货币资产。 当 M2 扩张时，流动性通常会流入高收益投资，从而导致股票、大宗商品和比特币上涨。相反，M2 收缩通常与避险期相吻合，此时资产难以找到上涨动力。 密切关注全球流动性的变化——这是推动比特币发展的最重要的长期因素之一。事实上，使用 2013 年至 2024 年的数据，BTC 与全球 M2 的相关性高达 94%。现在你知道为什么这么多人恳求结束量化紧缩政策，甚至恢复量化宽松政策了。pic.twitter.com/E27bkhS5Vx— Nic (@nicrypto) 2025 年 3 月 5 日 仔细查看历史数据，可以发现比特币与 M2 增长之间存在很强的相关性。比特币最显著的牛市发生在流动性快速扩张时期，而 M2 的下滑则发生在价格下跌或长期盘整之前。 然而，一个关键的观察结果是，比特币不会立即对流动性激增做出反应。研究表明，比特币在完全反映 M2 增长变化之前平均滞后约 10 周。 上面的 M2 图表进一步支持了这一说法。比特币从 2022-2023 年的低点复苏，与此同时 M2 增长也大幅上升。同样，在 2024 年中期，M2 再次扩张，随后比特币创下新高。 然而，在 2025 年初，尽管 M2 继续上升，但比特币进入了盘整期。缺少的因素似乎是流动性的变化率，而不是其绝对水平。 对比特币同比回报相对于 M2 同比变化的更深入分析，可以发现一个更清晰的模式——比特币最强劲的牛市往往出现在流动性增长快速加速时，而不是保持稳定时。 Hence, mere liquidity expansion isn’t enough to trigger a breakout — acceleration in M2 growth is the critical factor. 量化紧缩政策可能即将结束 美联储自 2022 年 6 月开始实施的量化紧缩 (QT) 计划可能即将进入最后阶段。 截至 3 月 18 日，Polymarket 上的投注额已超过 620 万美元，交易员认为美联储在 4 月 30 日结束 QT 的可能性为 100%。 从本质上讲，量化宽松 (QE) 与量化交易 (QT) 相反。美联储并没有通过购买债券向系统注入流动性，而是允许资产在资产负债表外到期，从而有效地将资金从流通中抽出。 这项政策与激进的加息相结合，有助于抑制通胀压力，但也造成了流动性限制，给市场带来压力。尽管量化紧缩政策产生了紧缩效应，但股票和加密资产仍成功上涨，但人们担心，在经济不确定性上升之际，持续的资产负债表缩减可能会耗尽流动性。 The minutes from the January FOMC meeting revealed that several policymakers were open to either slowing or pausing QT, largely due to uncertainties surrounding the federal debt ceiling and evolving money market conditions, Reuters reported. Analysts note that the Treasury Department’s extraordinary measures to keep government operations funded have been injecting temporary liquidity into the system.  This has made it harder for the Fed to accurately assess true reserve levels, creating a risk that it could withdraw too much liquidity too quickly, increasing financial market volatility. 尽管人们对量化紧缩政策将在近期结束的预期日益高涨，但并非所有分析师都同意这一时间安排。 巴克莱维持量化紧缩政策将在9月至10月之间结束的预测，并认为在3月或5月暂停缩减政策，随后再重启缩减政策是低效的。 与此同时，Wrightson ICAP分析师认为，美联储更有可能减缓资产购买的速度，而不是完全停止，并指出完全停止可能迫使美联储稍后恢复资产购买，从而给政策制定者带来沟通挑战。 其他机构，例如研究公司 LH Meyer 则警告称，量化紧缩政策的任何暂停都有可能导致经济完全停止，因为稍后再恢复这一进程可能会很困难——尤其是在市场状况依然脆弱的情况下。 流动性指标发出的混杂信号使得美联储判断正确停止点的能力变得复杂。 上次政策会议前对各大银行和基金经理进行的一项调查显示，量化紧缩政策可能在 6 月至 7 月之间结束。 美联储持有的资产已从 2022 年 9 万亿美元的峰值下降至 6.8 万亿美元，预计到这一过程结束时还将进一步降至 6.4 万亿美元左右。 然而，估计银行储备只会从当前的3.3万亿美元下降到3.125万亿美元，而美联储的逆回购工具——衡量过剩流动性的指标——在整个2月份一直保持在1000亿美元以下，这表明金融状况可能已经比预期的要紧。 从历史上看，退出量化紧缩政策是一个微妙的过程，如果美联储在未来几个月发出停止信号，则可能实际上标志着该计划的结束。 如果发生这种情况，其影响可能是广泛的——长期利率下降，美元走弱，以及对比特币和股票等风险资产的需求可能增加。 Liquidity surge meets institutional uncertainty 虽然 M2 货币供应量的增加是比特币牛市的强烈前兆，但链上指标和机构发展表明，短期前景可能尚未与这一趋势一致。 尽管全球 M2 创下历史新高，但比特币的价格走势已显示出疲软迹象。CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 警告称，“每个链上指标都预示着熊市”，指出新的流动性枯竭，新鲸鱼以较低的价格抛售 BTC。 #比特币牛市周期已经结束，预计价格将持续 6-12 个月的看跌或横盘走势。pic.twitter.com/f80bnNhjy4— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) 2025 年 3 月 17 日 他的分析将主成分分析 (PCA) 应用于各种指标，表明比特币的价格可能不会立即对流动性的上升做出反应。 One of the key metrics is MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), which compares Bitcoin’s market value to the price at which coins last moved, helping to determine whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued. Another critical metric is SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which measures whether Bitcoin holders are selling at a profit or a loss. 此外，NUPL（净未实现利润/损失）根据整个网络的未实现收益和损失来跟踪比特币持有者的整体盈利能力。 根据这些指标，比特币可能正在进入 6 至 12 个月的盘整阶段——这是历史上主要牛市之后出现的模式。 如果这是真的，比特币对流动性增加的反应可能会延迟而不是立即出现，这与之前的周期相似，即流动性扩张需要数月才能转化为看涨的价格行动。 与此同时，制度阻力也在加大。美国最近采用了比特币战略储备，标志着政府对比特币资产的看法发生了重大转变。 然而，这一举措并未受到全球金融机构的欢迎。长期倡导比特币、萨尔瓦多政府比特币高级顾问马克斯·凯泽 (Max Keiser) 指出，国际货币基金组织和信用评级机构已经开始下调美国信用评级，理由是比特币具有“不稳定影响”。 The IMF (and various credit rating agencies) are lowering US credit rating citing the destabilizing influence of Bitcoin. They recommend the US to immediately liquidate their BSR (Bitcoin Strategic Reserve).— Max Keiser (@maxkeiser) March 17, 2025 凯泽补充说，国际货币基金组织现在建议立即清算 BSR，这引发了人们对美国比特币持有量可能面临政治压力的担忧。 如果美国政府在这种压力下开始出售其比特币储备，至少在短期内，这可能会带来额外的下行势头。 投资者应保持对短期波动的谨慎态度，同时密切关注流动性趋势和政府行动。比特币未来几个月的走势可能需要耐心等待，才能看到下一个重大走势的形成。 明智地进行交易，切勿投资超过您能承受的损失的金额。 披露：本文不代表投资建议。本页内容和材料仅供教育之用。

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong revealed that the company once debated copying Michael Saylor’s aggressive Bitcoin-buying strategy. The 42-year-old billionaire, during a live Q&A session via X on May 9, discussed details regarding Coinbase’s balance sheet. While Armstrong considered putting most of the balance sheet into crypto, he ultimately chose a more cautious path. “There were definitely moments over the last 12 years where we thought, man, should we put 80% of our balance sheet into crypto — into Bitcoin specifically,” Armstrong said. You might also like:Jump Crypto takes leap into tokenization with Securitize stake Such a move could’ve jeopardized Coinbase’s early financial stability, he explained. While the exchange still holds $1.3 billion in crypto, mainly Bitcoin (BTC), CFO Alesia Haas — who also participated in the Q&A — emphasized they aim to support customers, not compete with them. Meanwhile, Saylor continues to scoop up Bitcoin and fill MicroStrategy’s coffers. Recently, the company spent over $1.42 billion on 15,355 BTC, with an average price of $92,737 per Bitcoin. MicroStrategy, now going as “Strategy,” boasts total Bitcoin holdings of 553,555 BTC. That’s about 2.5% of the total supply. It’s expected to end 2025 with 691,249 BTC, up from a prior estimate of 601,029. In an earnings call on May 1, Saylor addressed Bitcoin’s volatility concerns directly and claimed that over 70 publicly traded companies are participating in the so-called “digital gold rush.” For example, logistics firm Freight Technologies recently struck a $20 million deal with an institutional investor to purchase cryptocurrency — but opted for Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoins over Bitcoin. Various analysts also remain bullish, as the Bitcoin-reserve model continues to gain traction. Firms like Twenty One Capital and Strive Enterprises are emulating the “Strategy” strategy. Some see huge stock surges, like Next Technology Holding, which jumped 700% after boosting its Bitcoin stash. Read more:Ethereum enters ‘rebuild era,’ Vitalik Buterin calls for cultural shift