本周值得关注的加密货币：Solana、Polkadot、Cronos

比特币 2025 年的发展势头有多少是由基本面驱动的，又有多少是由不再提供可靠方向的宏观系统驱动的？ 目录政策紧缩导致增长脆弱Political pressure meets market stressCrypto moves up the macro ladderStructural rotation is underway Fragile growth amid policy tightropes The global economy in 2025 is walking a tightrope. The deliberate reengineering of trade rules by the U.S. has created a new layer of uncertainty, making global markets more volatile and less predictable. 在特朗普总统的领导下，华盛顿大规模提高关税实际上改写了后全球化时代的剧本。这些变化重新引发了人们对潜在经济衰退的担忧，迫使各国央行、企业和政策制定者不断重新调整策略。 高盛预计，仅今年一年，美国实际关税税率就将上涨约16个百分点。这听起来像是技术上的调整，但其实际后果已然显现。 高盛目前预计美国 GDP 增长将大幅放缓，并将其对 2025 年的预测下调至 0.5%。未来 12 个月出现经济衰退的可能性已飙升至 45%。 与此同时，失业率预计将攀升至4.7%，核心PCE通胀率可能升至3.5%。经济增长放缓加上持续的通胀，使得政策制定几乎没有犯错的余地。 为了缓解影响，美联储预计将进行三次降息，分析师称之为“预防性降息”。然而，美联储必须在不重新引发通胀的情况下缓解劳动力市场压力，在全球经济环境如此脆弱的情况下，这项任务变得更加艰巨。 Japan is already feeling the spillover. As an export-heavy economy, it is particularly exposed to disruptions in global trade. Slower external demand and increasingly cautious corporate investment have dragged down Japan’s growth prospects.  Forecasts now put its GDP expansion at just 1.0% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026. The Bank of Japan, which had been preparing to raise interest rates, may be forced to delay those plans if a U.S.-led recession begins to unfold.  欧洲也处于类似的重新调整状态。高盛已将欧元区经济增长预期下调至 0.7%，同时还降低了通胀预期和欧洲央行终端利率预期。 受全球需求疲软和持续的金融紧缩影响，英国的经济前景也不容乐观。 在新兴市场，类似的说法在各个地区都有所体现。中国2025年的增长预期已下调至4.0%。更令人震惊的是，通胀可能转为负值。虽然预计会进一步降息，但这可能无法抵消关税和大宗商品价格下跌带来的更广泛拖累。 其他发展中经济体，尤其是拉丁美洲、中欧和亚洲部分地区，也在下调预期。对其中许多国家而言，金融环境收紧和全球需求萎缩已成为决定性障碍。 正如诺贝尔奖得主保罗·克鲁格曼所言，“导致经济衰退的并非政策转变的规模，而是政策转变所带来的不确定性。而目前，政策逆转实际上可能会使情况恶化，因为它们会加剧不确定性。” 那么，这一切对于2025年的资本市场、投资策略以及加密货币行业意味着什么呢？让我们来探讨一下。 政治压力遇上市场压力 股票市场开始出现明显的紧张迹象，这不仅是因为关税本身，还因为经济政策的混乱感日益增强。 4月21日，标准普尔500指数下跌2.4%，纳斯达克指数下跌2.6%，道琼斯指数暴跌近1000点，抹去了前一周的所有涨幅。此次回调并非由任何单一事件引发，而是多重风险以令人不安的方式交织在一起的结果。 The first pressure point is the Trump administration’s tariff decisions. A 145% import tax on Chinese goods has reignited tensions with Beijing, prompting global investors to reevaluate supply chain exposure, manufacturing costs, and long-term earnings assumptions.  In turn, China has issued strong warnings, threatening retaliation against any country that aligns with U.S. trade terms it deems harmful. This tit-for-tat tone has reintroduced an element of strategic risk that goes beyond pure economics. Further compounding the situation is the widening rift between the White House and the Fed. Chair Jerome Powell recently acknowledged that the latest wave of tariffs could push inflation higher while slowing growth, a difficult combination that limits the Fed’s policy flexibility.  但特朗普总统的回应方式却进一步加剧了动荡。 近日，特朗普公开称鲍威尔为“大输家”，并重申应立即降息的观点。他甚至表示，鲍威尔的“下台还不够快”。 据报道，白宫正在幕后积极探索通过法律途径，在鲍威尔任期结束前将其免职。这引发了人们对美联储长期以来的独立性可能面临风险的担忧。 其影响已波及股市之外。截至本文撰写时，追踪美元兑一篮子主要货币汇率的美元指数已从上周的 99.38 跌至 98.52，创三年来的最低水平。 虽然美元走弱通常会支撑出口和企业盈利，但这种下降似乎反映出人们对美国宏观政策的一致性和可信度的更深层次的担忧。 Bond markets, too, are reacting. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has climbed to 4.38% from 4.33%, continuing an upward trend this month.  This suggests that investors are selling off long-dated government bonds, either in anticipation of rising inflation or as a defensive move against the risk that the Fed could be pushed into premature rate cuts under political pressure. 与此同时，金价悄然飙升至历史新高。金价一度突破每盎司 3,500 美元，截至 4 月 22 日稳定在 3,451 美元左右。在这样的环境下，传统风险资产和加密货币等另类资产的定位都可能发生变化。 加密货币在宏观层面上不断攀升 在全球股市开始出现裂痕之际，加密货币市场却悄然走上了一条不同的道路。截至4月22日，加密货币总市值已攀升至2.77万亿美元，高于4月9日贸易紧张局势首次升级时的2.40万亿美元，增幅约为15%。 推动此次复苏的一个主要因素是机构投资者对比特币（BTC）的兴趣重燃。根据SoSoValue的数据，4月21日，现货比特币ETF净流入3.814亿美元，较前一天增长逾250%，创下自1月30日以来的最大单日流入量。 然而，这种信心并未延伸至以太坊（ETH）。与比特币的上涨势头形成鲜明对比的是，以太币现货ETF当天录得2542万美元的净流出，这是连续第八周出现净流出，自这一趋势开始以来，总流出金额已接近9.1亿美元。 Bitcoin’s growing dominance is also reflected in its price action. Despite turbulence in equities, Bitcoin has continued to build on its gains, crossing the $90,000 threshold as of this writing and trading at $90,600 levels. Meanwhile, BTC’s market cap has returned to levels above $1.80 trillion, a milestone not seen since late March.  BTC price chart | Source: crypto.news Ethereum’s path, meanwhile, is moving in the opposite direction. The ETH/BTC ratio has now dropped to 0.01787, a level not seen since Jan. 2020.  仅在过去24小时内，该比率就下跌了近5%，过去一个月更是下跌了24%。同比来看，跌幅更为显著，以太坊兑比特币的价值下跌了67%。截至本文撰写时，ETH的交易价格为1700美元。 本质上，尽管整体金融体系仍在与不确定性和政策风险作斗争，但比特币不仅在短期内成功与股市脱钩，还保持了上涨势头。更广泛的加密货币市场正在慢慢迎头赶上。 结构性轮动正在进行 比特币的短期前景似乎正在从被动交易转向更具结构性的市场。目前形成的信号表明，2025 年的走势可能不再由日常风险情绪所决定，而是由流动性流动、政策应对以及投资者在日益不稳定的环境中如何定义对冲资产的更深层次的重构所决定。 宏观投资者 Raoul Pal 提出了尖锐的观点，美元需要贬值。不是通过突然贬值，而是通过渐进的、可控的贬值，以减轻持有大量美元债务的国家的还款压力。 Everyone needs and wants a weaker dollar to service their dollar debts. No one wants it to move too fast ( it blows up VAR) but they need it lower over next 12 months. This is the purest form of global liquidity and is the largest driver of global M2 currently. The US knows this…— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) April 22, 2025 他表示，美元走软，尤其是受到广泛流动性扩张影响的美元走软，可能成为 2025 年资产重新定价的最强大催化剂。比特币将从中直接受益。 与此同时，债券市场也在施加自身的压力。正如宏观分析师托马斯指出的那样，10年期美国国债收益率近期升至4.5%，这已经重塑了政策预期。 两周前，美国国债市场迫使特朗普突然大幅调整关税。“特朗普看跌期权”似乎将达到美国 10 年期国债收益率约 4.5% 的水平。但尽管股市遭遇抛售，收益率现在又开始上升。I previously said that if 10-year… pic.twitter.com/1GmnO8jjrb— Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets) April 21, 2025 The Trump administration has reportedly softened its tariff tone in response, recognizing that persistent yield spikes could tighten financial conditions too sharply. If yields continue to climb, the need for either diplomatic trade progress or liquidity injections becomes more urgent. That liquidity could arrive in several forms. The Fed remains the obvious actor, but the U.S. Treasury is also in play. Its recent consideration of bond buybacks, aimed at improving liquidity in older securities, hints at a broader toolkit being quietly assembled.  Each of these levers increases the flow of capital, which could indirectly lift Bitcoin by boosting available liquidity across risk markets. Still, the economic undercurrent is weakening. Growth projections are being revised downward across the board. High-frequency indicators like the Citi Economic Surprise Index and real-time GDP trackers are rolling over.  更广泛的宏观形势并非强劲，而是动能减弱，这为降息打开了大门，或者至少是降息预期日益增强。 这种预期已不再与政治无关。特朗普已公开敦促美联储降息，此举或许不会决定最终结果，但无疑会影响投资者的预期。政治噪音正在成为宏观经济方程式的一部分，市场也做出了相应的反应。 与此同时，投资者行为也开始反映这种转变。正如 Axel Adler Jr 所指出的，钱包活动在过去十天里激增，预示着新一轮的增持。 新投资者已开始入市。过去10天的指标显示买入信号。在2021年中国矿场禁令后的市场调整以及之前6.5万美元水平的市场调整中，也观察到了类似的新投资者行为模式。反对… pic.twitter.com/TyUZRVOOIRB— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) April 22, 2025 He compares the current trend with early 2021, when similar inflows followed structural shocks like China’s mining ban and major price resets. This return of strategic buyers is happening just as the traditional macro playbook starts to break down. If the prevailing forces, slower growth, political pressure on monetary policy, soft liquidity maneuvers, and a weaker dollar persist through the second half of 2025, Bitcoin could see growing institutional alignment.  For now, the signals are subtle but telling. Capital is beginning to rotate, quietly and purposefully, and Bitcoin is once again part of the core conversation. Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Virtuals Protocol’s price has woken up after weeks of sideways action, potentially tracking towards $4 if momentum persists. Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) price is 20% in the past 24 hours, currently trading at $1.45, with the volume surging over 100%. Today’s surge extends the rally that began on April 25, when VIRTUAL price broke out of the $0.4-0.8 range, where it has been consolidating from mid March, following the breakout from the steep downtrend that ensued after it hit ATH of $5.07 on Jan. 2. Since breaking out of this consolidation range, VIRTUAL is up by about by over 60%. The price has been trading above EMA-20 and SMA-50 for a week now as momentum has been growing increasingly bullish, with RSI at over 80 and MACD line well above the signal line. It has also moved about SMA-100, signaling a shift in long-term structure. The BBW is expanding again, indicating volatility is coming back to the chart. Source: TradingView You might also like:News Virtuals Protocol’s revenue plummets as VIRTUAL price nears oversold zone The breakout seems to be driven by the recent introduction of Genesis Launch, a token distribution mechanism designed to onboard users, devs, and AI agents into the VIRTUALS ecosystem. This mechanism allows users to pledge points in exchange for a potential allocation of 37.5% of the total token supply set aside for the presale. Allocations are determined dynamically based on each participant’s share of the total pledged points, with a hard cap of 0.5% of the total token supply per user. As users must also commit VIRTUAL tokens alongside their points (up to 566 VIRTUAL per entry, including a 1% tax), the mechanism has directly increased demand for the token. Another likely catalyst behind today’s surge was the announcement of VIRTUAL’s listing on Binance.US. Deposits on the Base (BASE) network opened yesterday, with trading for the VIRTUAL/USDT pair officially launching today. Looking ahead, the next immediate target lies around $1.80, which corresponds to a previous support-turned-resistance level. The next likely target is near $2.70, aligning with the price range from the initial breakdown zone in February. If momentum persists, it might reach $4, the first significant lower high after ATH and the point of intersection with the descending trendline. You might also like:Virtuals Protocol launches Virtuals Partners Network to accelerate AI agent development

韩国国家养老金服务机构是全球第三大公共养老金基金，管理的资产超过 8000 亿美元，该机构正在寻求利用区块链技术进行交易。 据当地《首尔经济日报》报道，韩国国家养老金服务局计划探索在其基金交易中使用区块链来增强透明度，该机构的资产规模超过 1,224 万亿韩元，约合 8,360 亿美元。 NPS 此前表示，目前没有购买加密货币的计划，但押注了比特币 (BTC) 购买公司 Strategy 的股票，据报道，该公司热衷于区块链网络的潜在利益。该基金经理还投资了加密货币交易所巨头 Coinbase 的股票。 除了透明度之外，公共养老基金还致力于提高安全性。据《首尔经济日报》报道，NPS 将利用区块链来管理存款、客户取款和投资。 你可能还喜欢：巴基斯坦任命币安创始人 CZ 为国家加密货币委员会顾问 NPS 将通过初步披露启动该计划，并计划寻求业内顶尖区块链专家的意见。反馈阶段将支持旨在评估项目可行性的研究。 一旦该阶段结束，NPS 将正式公布该项目，成功将区块链技术功能与韩国领先的公共养老基金整合在一起。根据该报告，区块链的优势将成为解决其管理的记录被篡改相关挑战的关键。 NPS 进军区块链的尝试并非它首次考虑的冒险。它已经利用区块链功能来追踪外国客户的养老基金交易。 NPS 举措出台的背景是该国投资加密货币的人数激增。 正如 crypto.news 最近强调的那样，韩国的加密货币投资者数量已超过 1600 万，2024 年 3 月达到 1400 万，11 月唐纳德·特朗普在美国大选中获胜后，投资者数量超过 1500 万。 你可能还喜欢：South Korea sets timeline to finalize path for institutional crypto deals

威斯康星州在三个月内将其比特币投资增加了一倍多，而阿布扎比的主权财富基金公开披露了其比特币购买情况。 根据提交给美国证券交易委员会的 13F 文件，威斯康星州投资委员会于 2024 年第四季度额外收购了贝莱德 iShares 比特币 (BTC) 信托基金的 310 万股股票 去年，威斯康星州成为第一家涉足比特币 ETF 的主权基金。最初，董事会购买了近 95,000 股 IBIT 股票，并投资了 Grayscale 比特币 ETF。到 8 月，威斯康星州的持股量已增至约 290 万股。截至最新文件，其比特币 ETF 总资产价值约为 5.88 亿美元，BTC 交易价格低于 99,000 美元。 你可能还喜欢：花旗银行和道富银行进军数字资产托管领域 阿布扎比支持比特币 ETF 在境外，在中东，另一家政府支持的机构投资者也分配资金来现货 BTC ETF。 SEC Edgar 记录显示，截至 12 月 31 日，阿布扎比主权财富基金（即穆巴达拉投资公司）收购了贝莱德 IBIT 股份，价值约 4.369 亿美元。穆巴达拉负责管理阿拉伯联合酋长国首都阿布扎比的重大投资。 文件显示，穆巴达拉于 11 月左右购买了阿布扎比的比特币 ETF 股份，与此同时贝莱德从当地监管机构获得了提供加密服务的许可。 斥资近 5 亿美元投资比特币是阿布扎比政府的重大举措。然而，阿联酋首都此前曾投资比特币挖矿，并于 2023 年吸引了 Marathon Digital 等大型公司支持其本地挖矿行业。 阅读更多：Pump.fun 式激励措施加速人工智能进化 | 观点

VRA rallied as high as 45% today, breaking out of a bullish pattern following new partnerships while outpacing a broader market downturn. Verasity (VRA) surged to an intraday high of $0.0032 on May 6 during afternoon Asian trading, pushing its total gains to over 250% since hitting its monthly low. VRA’s strong performance made it the top gainer among the top 1,000 cryptocurrencies on CoinGecko. This comes even as the broader crypto market slipped 2.2% over the past day, with Bitcoin (BTC) staying relatively flat while Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA) dropped 1–4% amid market caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision due tomorrow. VRA rallied to a level not seen since Feb. 1, lifting its market cap above $30 million. Meanwhile, daily trading volume jumped by around 200% compared to the previous day. The price surge coincided with a notable increase in futures open interest, hitting an all-time high of $25 million today, markedly up from just $3.17 million recorded a month earlier, according to data from CoinGlass. Additionally, its funding rates have been consistently positive over the past four days. The long/short ratio has remained above 1, indicating more traders are optimistic about continued upward price movement. Launched in May 2018, Verasity is a blockchain-based platform that specializes in video monetization and combating ad fraud through its patented Proof of View (PoV) technology. It uses the VRA token as the primary currency within its ecosystem, enabling users and creators to earn rewards, access premium content, and facilitate transactions securely and transparently across video and gaming platforms. You might also like:Worldcoin pulls back after parabolic run amid suspensions in Kenya and Indonesia The optimism around VRA is likely due to recent partnerships that seem to have renewed investor interest. On May 5, Verasity announced a partnership with SoonChain, an AI-powered gaming Layer 2 platform. Through this collaboration, SoonChain is integrating Verasity’s VeraPlayer to drive its video content economy. Three days earlier, on May 2, Verasity announced another key partnership with MAIV, an RWA platform aiming to provide broader access to institutional-grade investment opportunities. MAIV has already integrated Verasity’s VeraPlayer technology to power its video content, currently live on its homepage. Future plans include enabling monetization safeguarded by Verasity’s PoV technology.  Additionally, a joint airdrop for holders of VRA and MAIV tokens has been teased as part of this strategic alliance. Verasity’s traders are also buzzing with anticipation over a potential Binance listing, which has added to the hype. VRA price analysis On the 1-day/USDT chart, VRA has broken out of a multi-week ascending triangle pattern, which is seen in technical analysis as a bullish continuation signal. It has also moved above the horizontal resistance zone at $0.020–$0.021, a key barrier that has capped price action since early March. VRA price, 20-day and 50-day EMA — May 6 | Source: crypto.news Adding to the bullish case, the Chaikin Money Flow has climbed to 0.24, showing increased buying pressure, while the Supertrend indicator has flipped green, another sign of positive momentum. VRA Supertrend and CMF chart — May 6 | Source: crypto.news A golden cross has also formed on the daily chart, with the 20-day EMA (green) crossing above the 50-day EMA (blue), typically considered a bullish signal. The last time this happened, VRA surged over 145% within a month. If the current setup plays out similarly, VRA could soon test the $0.0037 resistance level, which is about 15.6% above where it’s trading now. Analysts remain optimistic that the rally could extend much further. According to Crypto Patel, if VRA holds above its key breakout level of $0.0025, the token could target its previous all-time high, representing a potential 40x gain from that resistance zone. However, all this will still depend largely on Bitcoin’s price moves, as BTC dominance continues to climb higher, meaning broader altcoin rallies like VRA’s may ultimately hinge on whether Bitcoin maintains its strength or pulls back. Read more:Bitcoin hits technical ceiling: is a drop to $86k next? Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.