加密货币中的慈善悖论：通过捐赠揭示社会价值观 | 观点

A little-known crypto token saw sharp volatility today. FIFA surged over 67% in recent days before crashing more than 58% in the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data.  The token, trading under the symbol FIFA and priced at just $0.000000259, briefly drew attention amid speculative rumors that it was linked to the global football organization FIFA’s web3 initiatives. The token is currently ranked #3534 on CoinMarketCap. There is no evidence that the FIFA token is connected to the official governing body. You might also like:Galaxy CEO: Biden was ‘un-American’ to crypto, BTC to hit $150k  FIFA’s new NFT platform  The real FIFA made headlines in April after announcing plans to migrate its NFT platform, FIFA Collect, from the Algorand network to a new Ethereum Virtual Machine-compatible blockchain.  The update outlines a move aimed at improving interoperability and fan engagement via digital collectibles and real-world experiences. FIFA stated that the migration is scheduled for no earlier than May 20 and will require users to connect through Ethereum Virtual Machine-compatible wallets such as MetaMask. Meanwhile, the FIFA token remains highly speculative and lacks publicly available information about its developers, use case, or circulating supply. Its rapid rise and fall highlight the ongoing risks of misinterpreted news in the crypto market. You might also like:Moo Deng price approaches support: 50% bounce possible on bullish rounded bottom

CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 表示，比特币近期的价格走势受到 Coinbase 鲸鱼的严重影响。 Ju 在 2 月 26 日的 X 帖子中指出，Coinbase 的现货交易量主导地位（指交易所发生的比特币（BTC）现货交易量占总交易量的份额）在过去一周飙升了 30% 以上。 与此同时，追踪 Coinbase 和币安等其他交易所上的比特币价格差异的 Coinbase BTC 溢价仍然为负。这表明美国投资者，尤其是机构投资者，正在推动牛市和近期的调整。 Coinbase 鲸鱼正在推动 BTC 价格走势。现货交易量主导地位在 7 天内增长了 30%，CB 溢价为负。pic.twitter.com/6hszgLw9iYâ Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) 2025 年 2 月 26 日 根据 SoSoValue 的数据，与 Coinbase 上的鲸鱼活动同时，现货比特币 ETF 录得自推出以来的最大单日流出量，2 月 25 日流出资金 9.3778 亿美元。这一数字远远超过了 2024 年 12 月 19 日 6.8 亿美元的先前记录，表明机构投资者的抛售压力有所增加。 你可能还喜欢：随着 meme 币交易降温，Solana 较历史高点下跌 50％ 与此同时，10x Research 2 月 25 日的报告指出，美国比特币 ETF 流入资金中只有 44% 用于长期持有，其余资金可能与套利策略有关。这表明，作为多资产投资组合中的一项资产，对比特币的实际长期需求可能比媒体报道的要小得多。 #Bitcoin 和 @MicroStrategy：对冲基金的新宠资产@BlackRock IBIT、MicroStrategy——我们所知道的……👇1-21) 尽管自 2024 年 1 月推出以来，比特币 ETF 已吸引了 386 亿美元的净流入，但我们的分析表明，只有 175 亿美元（44%）...... pic.twitter.com/7Bf95P9NpX— 10x Research (@10x_Research) 2025 年 2 月 23 日 当前市场回调主要是由导致市场不确定性的宏观经济因素引发的。美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普提议对加拿大和墨西哥进口产品征收 25% 的关税，该提议将于 3 月生效，这加剧了人们对通胀上升的担忧。 尽管有所调整，CryptoQuant 的首席执行官仍然看好比特币的长期走势。在 2 月 19 日的一篇文章中，他指出，比特币的牛市周期仍然完好无损，并指出过去的周期中，比特币价格从历史高点下跌了 30%，但这并不意味着熊市已经来临。

On-chain data shows that more than 85% of holders are now sitting on profits, raising speculations of short-term profit-taking. In an analysis published on Apr. 29 by CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost, the “supply in profit” metric, which tracks the percentage of Bitcoin (BTC) holders currently above their cost basis, has climbed back above 85%. This marks a strong recovery from a recent dip to 75%, a level often seen as a key support zone in past market cycles. “Having a large portion of supply in profit is not a bad thing,” Darkfost wrote. “It tends to support bullish trends — until it reaches euphoric levels.” According to past data, when this metric crosses the 90% mark, markets often enter a euphoric phase followed by short- to mid-term corrections. Bitcoin Supply in Profit Approaching a Historic Euphoria Threshold“Historically, when the supply in profit surpassed the 90% threshold, it consistently triggered euphoric phases, and we are now approaching that level” – By @Darkfost_Coc pic.twitter.com/FpbvsOxXsY— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 29, 2025 You might also like:El Salvador keeps buying Bitcoin despite $1.4b IMF deal Bitcoin is consolidating between $94,000 and $95,000 as of the time of writing. Technical indicators provide mixed signals. At 66, the relative strength index is approaching overbought. Though indicators like the Stochastic RSI point to potential trend fatigue, momentum, and moving average convergence/divergence readings are still bullish. Bitcoin price analysis. Credit: crypto.news If buyers regain their strength, a breakout above $98,000 might lead to Bitcoin retesting the $100,000 level. On the downside, a decline toward the $85,000–$87,000 range could be triggered by a break below $89,000. Beyond the charts, institutional interest appears to be a major driver of the recent rally. According to data from SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $764 in net inflows over the past week. Corporate buyers are also stepping up. MicroStrategy recently purchased 15,355 BTC for $1.4 billion, increasing its total holdings to over 553,000 BTC. More institutional demand is expected in the near future. Cantor Fitzgerald, SoftBank, Bitfinex, and Tether have announced plans to launch 21 Capital, a $3.6 billion Bitcoin investment venture. Bitcoin’s next move may depend on whether this wave of institutional demand can carry it through resistance amid fears of profit taking among retail holders.  Read more:South Korea to allow trading for spot Bitcoin ETF this year

A recent dip in Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply may be flashing early warning signs of a potential market top, according to on-chain data from Glassnode. In a May 14 post on X, the analytics firm noted that LTH supply, which includes wallets holding Bitcoin (BTC) for at least 155 days, peaked at 14.29 million BTC after rising from 13.66 million BTC in mid-March. However, that figure has recently declined for the second time this month. Meanwhile, LTH spending, which tracks coins moving out of long-held wallets, has increased to 0.43, a level that historically tends to front-run local tops in price. #Bitcoin's LTH supply rose from 13.66M $BTC in mid-March to 14.29M $BTC, but recently ticked down again for the second time in May. LTH spending has also picked up to 0.43. These inflections can escalate quickly, often front-running local market tops – worth watching closely. pic.twitter.com/xqN0MkiOWS— glassnode (@glassnode) May 14, 2025 Some analysts agree that Bitcoin may be headed for a reversal. WhaleWire analyst Jacob King argued that Bitcoin is forming a double top, a traditional pattern that has signaled the end of every significant bull cycle, in a May 15 post shared with his 520,000 followers on X. King claims that insider manipulation and Tether inflows are artificially maintaining the rally rather than it being driven by natural demand. He cautioned that the market is about to crash and is dangerously overvalued. Bitcoin’s recent surge is completing a double top — a pattern that has occurred at 100% of its major market cycle peaks. It’s a clear signal: the bear market is beginning.While retail sheep convince themselves that hovering above $100K is due to mythical institutional demand or… pic.twitter.com/1NpbFOuymF— Jacob King (@JacobKinge) May 15, 2025 You might also like:Fresh Bitcoin inflows amid rising realized cap suggest bullish trend will continue: Bitfinex After a 32% decline earlier this year, Bitcoin saw a significant rebound, rising from about $94,000 at the beginning of May to a high of $105,747 on May 12. Institutional players have been driving this rebound. On May 12 alone, Strategy added $1.34 billion worth of BTC, bringing its holdings to nearly 569,000 BTC. Japan’s Metaplanet also increased its stash by 1,241 BTC, now totaling to 6,796 BTC. Bitcoin spot ETFs, on the other hand, have attracted $1.94 billion in net inflows over the past month, according to SoSoValue data. Despite potential short-term retracements, particularly if retail investors begin to capitulate, the broader picture remains bullish. According to Santiment, institutions now hold around 68% of the total supply, with little sign of selling. The recent data suggests a potential short-term pullback if retail sentiment weakens. However, since institutions are still buying Bitcoin and ETFs are purchasing about 5,000 BTC every day, Bitcoin might soon find support, paving the way for more growth after profit-taking has subsided. Read more:Semler Scientific outpaces Bitcoin giants with 22.2% YTD BTC yield despite Q1 loss

随着 Solana 取得进展且 ETH/BTC 比率跌破 0.022，以太坊是否仍能占据 L1 主导地位？ 目录ETH/BTC 创多年新低以太坊指标显示出疲软迹象可扩展性的权衡正在迎头赶上以太坊价格预测：已经触底吗？ ETH/BTC 创多年新低 以太坊 (ETH) 是全球市值第二大的加密货币，现在正面临严峻的现实考验。ETH/BTC 比率是衡量以太坊相对于比特币 (BTC) 实力的指标，已降至 0.022，为 2020 年 12 月以来的最低水平，表明以太坊的相对表现急剧下降。 ETH/BTC 终身价格图表 | 来源：TradingView 自 2022 年 9 月该比率徘徊在 0.085 左右以来，以太坊相对于比特币的价值已下跌超过 73%。截至本文撰写时，ETH 的交易价格约为 1,880 美元，过去一周下跌 9%，较 2021 年 11 月的历史高点 4,890 美元大幅下跌 62%。 相比比特币（今年迄今仅下跌 10%，交易价格为 84,300 美元）而言，以太坊在同一时间段内的跌幅高达 46%，跌幅是比特币的四倍多。 比率下降反映了以太坊在智能合约和第 1 层生态系统中的主导地位正在下降，而它曾经在这个领域独占鳌头。 As other L1s like Solana (SOL), Binance Chain (BNB), Avalanche (AVAX), and others gain ground, and as Bitcoin reasserts its dominance, Ethereum appears to be treading water. Let’s take a closer look at what’s driving this imbalance, whether Ethereum is genuinely losing ground, and what it means for the future of the L1 blockchain race. Ethereum’s metrics show signs of softening 截至 4 月 1 日，以太坊的总锁定价值约为 505 亿美元，占整个市场的 52.5%。这比 2024 年 2 月的 61.64% 明显下降，表明去中心化金融市场的份额正在逐渐下降。 ETH 终身 TVL 图表 | 来源：DeFi LIama 这种转变的部分原因可以归因于 Solana 等竞争对手的崛起，Solana 的 TVL 大幅增长。Solana 的份额从 2.84% 增长到 7.24%，总 TVL 达到 66.9 亿美元，在短短一年多的时间里增长了 2.5 倍多。 一个新兴趋势是跨网络用户行为的差异。以太坊继续吸引参与被动 DeFi 活动（例如收益耕作和质押）的用户。 相比之下，Solana 的生态系统吸引了更多投机性、活跃的交易者，尤其是在 meme 代币和高频 DeFi 领域，这表明以太坊现有的用例虽然强劲，但可能与零售用户活动的当前趋势不一致。 Meanwhile, high gas fees, historically one of Ethereum’s biggest barriers, have improved. Average gas prices dropped to 1.12 GWEI in March 2025, significantly lower than levels seen in previous years. But despite these improvements, Ethereum still remains relatively expensive and slower to use compared to newer chains, especially for users making smaller transactions. 在此之中，尽管比特币 ETF 迄今已吸引了超过 360 亿美元的净流入，但以太坊 ETF 却难以引起关注。仅在 2025 年 3 月，ETH ETF 的净总流入就下降了 9.8%，降至 24.3 亿美元。 交易方面，围绕以太坊的情绪似乎正在恶化。根据 Kobeissi Letter 报道，以太坊的空头仓位在 2 月初激增 40%，自 2024 年 11 月以来已增长超过 500%，标志着空头仓位达到了前所未有的水平。 在加密货币领域也出现了同样的趋势。2 月初，以太坊的空头仓位激增 +40%，自 2024 年 11 月以来激增 +500%。历史上华尔街从来没有如此缺少以太坊，而且目前的情况还远远不够。However, retail investors continue to buy the dip. pic.twitter.com/OmOdlLP9Uw— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 20, 2025 Meanwhile, Ethereum’s overall market dominance has now dropped below 8.4%, its lowest level in over four years. As Milocredit, a crypto mortgage company, noted, this suggests that capital is flowing out of ETH and into other options, including Bitcoin, Solana, and emerging layer 1 platforms that are capitalizing on Ethereum’s slowed momentum. $ETH 主导地位跌至 8.4% 以下以太坊在加密货币市场的份额是4年来的最低水平。这意味着资本正在从 $ETH 流向其他货币，包括比特币、Solana 和新的 L1。pic.twitter.com/k0Y4iDWIxr— Milo (@milocredit) 2025 年 3 月 31 日 可扩展性的权衡正在迎头赶上 For years, Ethereum’s growth narrative has hinged on the promise of scaling. Yet, as of early 2025, that promise remains largely unfulfilled at the base layer. Despite multiple protocol upgrades, Ethereum’s mainnet still processes just 10 to 62 transactions per second. At the time of writing, its effective throughput hovers around 16 transactions per second—a figure that stands in stark contrast to Solana’s 4,322 TPS. This has become a key reason why newer users and applications are choosing to build elsewhere. The transition to proof-of-stake via the Merge in 2022 significantly improved Ethereum’s energy efficiency, cutting energy use by over 99%. However, it did little to resolve the network’s core throughput limitations.  As a result, Ethereum has increasingly relied on layer-2 rollups like Arbitrum (ARB), Optimism (OP), and Base to scale its operations. These networks extend Ethereum’s capabilities by processing transactions off-chain and settling them back on the mainnet.  尽管 L-2 的采用降低了用户成本，但也导致了意想不到的后果。活动正在从以太坊的主网转移，吸引用户和交易费用转向 L-2 生态系统。 正如 X 上的一位用户所说，“Arbitrum 和 Optimism 正在赚取巨额费用……而以太坊的基础层正在变成一座鬼城。” 以太坊 gas 费用再次飙升，而第 2 层则大吃一惊。仲裁和乐观主义正在收取费用，就像一个腐败的侍酒师对你没有订购的酒多收钱一样。多边形的侧链游戏看起来不稳定，以太坊的基础层正在变成一座鬼城。你……— Bacchus (@bacchus_dvin) 2025 年 3 月 20 日 这一趋势有数据支持。渣打银行的 Geoff Kendrick 等分析师认为，L2（尤其是 Coinbase 的 Base 等交易量较大的 L2）正在吸走数十亿美元的交易费，而这些费用原本会流经以太坊主网。 Kendrick 估计，仅 Base 一项就通过转移经济活动从以太坊市值中抹去了约 500 亿美元的价值。反过来，这减少了通过 gas 费消耗的 ETH 数量，削弱了其通货紧缩机制以及 ETH 长期以来作为“超声波货币”的宣传。 在 EIP-1559 之后，以太坊的费用销毁机制有望抵消发行量。然而，由于活动现在分散在数十个汇总和侧链上，总体费用销毁量已大幅下降。 ETH 再次成为净通胀货币，目前年化率为 0.5%。与此同时，质押收益率已跌至 2.5% 以下，与 DeFi 平台上回报率超过 4.5% 的稳定币策略相比，ETH 的吸引力有所下降。 即使以太坊即将推出的升级版 Pectra（旨在通过将 blob 容量从 3 个增加到 6 个以提高数据可用性来提高 L2 效率）也无济于事。 Kendrick has stated that he does not expect Pectra to reverse the broader ETH/BTC decline, calling the upgrade insufficient to address Ethereum’s underlying structural issues. At the same time, activity on Ethereum’s mainnet appears to be drying up. Bots, particularly address poisoning bots, are now dominating gas usage on top contracts. Fewer organic applications are deploying directly to the mainnet. ETH 主网正在变成一个坟墓，地址中毒机器人慢慢开始填满越来越多按 gas 使用量排名靠前的合约。L2 太多了。主网上部署的应用程序/项目已经不够了。回归上帝。使用 ETH 主网。pic.twitter.com/ARbp1sXd7o— Pop Punk (@PopPunkOnChain) 2025 年 3 月 24 日 正如一位用户所说，“ETH 主网正在变成一座坟场”。虽然这可能有点夸张，但以太坊的核心层正在失去其作为链上创新主要目的地的声誉。 Ethereum price prediction: Is the bottom in? Several signals from market analysts point to a wide spectrum of possible outcomes, but the risks appear to be stacking up more quickly for ETH than the potential tailwinds. On the macro front, Ethereum remains heavily tied to the broader risk asset environment. According to Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone, “ETH remains closely correlated with risk assets,” meaning its performance is likely to reflect that of U.S. equities and high-beta sectors. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone noted that ETH remains closely correlated with risk assets. If U.S. equities continue to decline, ETH could fall further and potentially revisit the $1,000 level later this year. A recovery to $2,000 might signal strength for risk assets, but…— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) March 30, 2025 如果股市在 2025 年进一步下跌，尤其是在高利率、持续通胀或全球增长放缓的压力下，以太坊可能会面临更大的下行压力。 麦克格隆警告称，在宏观环境恶化的情况下，ETH 可能“重新回到 1,000 美元的水平”，这将意味着较当前水平下跌近 50%。 从技术角度来看，价格结构也显示出紧张的迹象。分析师 Mags 表示，以太坊的图表是“有史以来最糟糕的图表之一”，指出在此周期中屡屡未能突破 4,000 美元的阻力区。 #以太坊——公正的分析ETH 的走势图是有史以来最糟糕的之一。在此周期中，价格曾三次试图突破 4,000 美元的区间高点，但均以失败告终。On the last rejection, price broke down even below the mid-range and is also trading below the… pic.twitter.com/iXkg8THiFy— Mags (@thescalpingpro) March 18, 2025 After three attempts, ETH not only failed to reclaim its highs but also lost support at its mid-range level and fell below an upward-sloping trendline that had held since the previous market bottom. This type of breakdown, combined with the lack of strong support below current levels, opens the possibility of a retest near the $1,060 range — a price last seen during the 2022 bear market. As Mags noted, “technically speaking, the bearish scenario looks more likely.” However, a more optimistic perspective came from trader Michaël van de Poppe, who observed that Ethereum may be showing early signs of a potential “deviation.” 我认为$ETH在这里表现出了偏差。它还没有突破任何关键水平，但是它正面临一个关键水平。突破 2,100-2,150 美元，我们可能很快就会达到 2,800 美元。DXY 大幅下跌，我们可能将看到一个良好的第二季度。pic.twitter.com/70lbJ9skYo— Michael van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) 2025 年 3 月 24 日 According to him, if ETH can cleanly break above the $2,100 to $2,150 zone, it could spark a sharp move up to $2,800, indicating renewed strength in the market. He also highlighted a recent decline in the U.S. Dollar Index as a favorable macro signal, suggesting that a weaker dollar might help support a crypto rebound in Q2. Still, these bullish scenarios depend on Ethereum reclaiming key technical levels and broader market sentiment turning more favorable. Until then, the downside risks remain more visible. In the short term, Ethereum’s trajectory appears closely tied to macroeconomic cycles and Bitcoin’s positioning. A decisive move above $2,150 could mark the start of a recovery phase. Without that, however, technical and structural pressure is likely to persist. 谨慎交易，投资金额切勿超过您能承受的损失。 披露：本文不代表投资建议。本页内容和材料仅供教育之用。