加密货币本应是一个出口——为什么我们比以往任何时候都更加陷入困境？| 观点

全球 M2 货币供应量创历史新高 —— 那么比特币为何没有飙升？是出了什么问题，还是延迟突破即将到来？ 目录美联储会议临近，市场紧张不安Rising M2 liquidityQuantitative tightening could be nearing its endLiquidity surge meets institutional uncertainty Markets on edge as the Fed meeting looms 由于经济状况持续动荡，市场在美联储 3 月 18 日至 19 日会议前夕面临越来越多的不确定性。股市跌跌撞撞，通胀持续存在，投资者正在重新评估他们对降息的预期。 除了不可预测性之外，特朗普总统的关税政策和联邦政府裁员引发了人们对整体经济前景的新担忧，给本已脆弱的市场注入了进一步的不稳定。 尽管出现动荡，但市场普遍预计联邦公开市场委员会将维持利率在 4.25-4.5% 不变，芝加哥商品交易所集团 (CME Group) 的 FedWatch 工具显示，不会立即调整利率的可能性为 99%。 然而，真正的焦点在于首次降息的时机。目前的预测显示，6 月份可能会降息，利率降至 4-4.25% 的可能性为 55%。 总体而言，投资者预计 2025 年美联储将累计降息四分之三个百分点，这可能使美联储基准利率降至 3.5-3.75%。 Amid this uncertainty, financial markets have responded sharply. The S&P 500 has dropped more than 8% from its Feb. 19 all-time high, while the Nasdaq plunged 4% on Mar. 10 — its worst trading day since 2022.  与此同时，波动率指数飙升至8月份以来的最高水平，反映出投资者在应对不断变化的政策，尤其是特朗普的关税上调时面临的困难。 比特币 (BTC) 也一直在苦苦寻找立足点，截至 3 月 18 日，价格仍在 82,300 美元左右波动，较 1 月份 109,114 美元的历史高点下跌近 25%。 BTC 价格图表 | 来源：crypto.news 现在的问题是：接下来会发生什么？如果美联储发出政策转变信号，市场将如何反应？这一切对未来几周的加密货币意味着什么？ M2流动性上升 Global liquidity is surging, and history suggests that risk assets like Bitcoin may soon react. As of Mar. 10, global M2 money supply reached an all-time high of $108.2 trillion, marking a 3.5% increase from its 2025 low of $104.5 trillion recorded on Jan. 6. Bitcoin and global M2 growth chart | Source: BGeometrics Yet, in this cycle, Bitcoin’s price action has shown inconsistencies despite the rise in liquidity, raising questions about whether a delayed response is at play. M2 money supply serves as a broad measure of global liquidity, encompassing cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money assets. When M2 expands, liquidity typically finds its way into high-yielding investments, leading to rallies in stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin. Conversely, contractions in M2 often coincide with risk-off periods, where assets struggle to find upside momentum. 密切关注全球流动性的变化——这是推动比特币发展的最重要的长期因素之一。事实上，使用 2013 年至 2024 年的数据，BTC 与全球 M2 的相关性高达 94%。现在你知道为什么这么多人恳求结束量化紧缩政策，甚至恢复量化宽松政策了。pic.twitter.com/E27bkhS5Vx— Nic (@nicrypto) 2025 年 3 月 5 日 仔细查看历史数据，可以发现比特币与 M2 增长之间存在很强的相关性。比特币最显著的牛市发生在流动性快速扩张时期，而 M2 的下滑则发生在价格下跌或长期盘整之前。 However, a key observation is that Bitcoin does not react immediately to liquidity surges. Research suggests an average lag of approximately 10 weeks before Bitcoin fully reflects changes in M2 growth. The above M2 chart further supports this narrative. Bitcoin’s recovery from its 2022-2023 lows coincided with a significant uptick in M2 growth. Similarly, in mid-2024, a renewed expansion in M2 was followed by Bitcoin reaching new highs. However, in early 2025, Bitcoin entered a period of consolidation despite M2 continuing its ascent. The missing ingredient appears to be the rate of change in liquidity rather than its absolute level. 对比特币同比回报相对于 M2 同比变化的更深入分析，可以发现一个更清晰的模式——比特币最强劲的牛市往往出现在流动性增长快速加速时，而不是保持稳定时。 因此，单纯的流动性扩张不足以引发突破——M2 增长加速才是关键因素。 量化紧缩政策可能即将结束 美联储自 2022 年 6 月开始实施的量化紧缩 (QT) 计划可能即将进入最后阶段。 截至 3 月 18 日，Polymarket 上的投注额已超过 620 万美元，交易员认为美联储在 4 月 30 日结束 QT 的可能性为 100%。 At its core, QT is the opposite of quantitative easing (QE). Instead of injecting liquidity into the system by purchasing bonds, the Fed has been allowing assets to mature off its balance sheet, effectively pulling money out of circulation. This policy, alongside aggressive rate hikes, helped curb inflationary pressures but also created liquidity constraints that have weighed on markets. While stocks and crypto assets managed to rally despite QT’s tightening effects, concerns have emerged that continued balance sheet reduction could drain liquidity at a time of rising economic uncertainty. The minutes from the January FOMC meeting revealed that several policymakers were open to either slowing or pausing QT, largely due to uncertainties surrounding the federal debt ceiling and evolving money market conditions, Reuters reported. Analysts note that the Treasury Department’s extraordinary measures to keep government operations funded have been injecting temporary liquidity into the system.  This has made it harder for the Fed to accurately assess true reserve levels, creating a risk that it could withdraw too much liquidity too quickly, increasing financial market volatility. 尽管人们对量化紧缩政策将在近期结束的预期日益高涨，但并非所有分析师都同意这一时间安排。 巴克莱维持量化紧缩政策将在9月至10月之间结束的预测，并认为在3月或5月暂停缩减政策，随后再重启缩减政策是低效的。 与此同时，Wrightson ICAP分析师认为，美联储更有可能减缓资产购买的速度，而不是完全停止，并指出完全停止可能迫使美联储稍后恢复资产购买，从而给政策制定者带来沟通挑战。 其他机构，例如研究公司 LH Meyer 则警告称，量化紧缩政策的任何暂停都有可能导致经济完全停止，因为稍后再恢复这一进程可能会很困难——尤其是在市场状况依然脆弱的情况下。 流动性指标发出的混杂信号使得美联储判断正确停止点的能力变得复杂。 A survey of major banks and money managers conducted before the last policy meeting suggested QT could conclude between June and July. Fed holdings, which have already declined to $6.8 trillion from a peak of $9 trillion in 2022, are expected to fall further to around $6.4 trillion by the end of the process. However, estimates suggest that bank reserves will only dip to $3.125 trillion from the current $3.3 trillion, while the Fed’s reverse repo facility — a measure of excess liquidity — has remained below $100 billion throughout February, indicating that financial conditions may already be tighter than intended. Historically, unwinding QT has been a delicate process, and if the Fed signals a stop in the coming months, it may effectively mark the end of the program. 如果发生这种情况，其影响可能是广泛的——长期利率下降，美元走弱，以及对比特币和股票等风险资产的需求可能增加。 流动性激增遭遇机构不确定性 虽然 M2 货币供应量的增加是比特币牛市的强烈前兆，但链上指标和机构发展表明，短期前景可能尚未与这一趋势一致。 尽管全球 M2 创下历史新高，但比特币的价格走势已显示出疲软迹象。CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 警告称，“每个链上指标都预示着熊市”，指出新的流动性枯竭，新鲸鱼以较低的价格抛售 BTC。 #比特币牛市周期已经结束，预计价格将持续 6-12 个月的看跌或横盘走势。pic.twitter.com/f80bnNhjy4— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) March 17, 2025 His analysis, which applies Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to various metrics, suggests that Bitcoin’s price may not immediately react to rising liquidity. One of the key metrics is MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), which compares Bitcoin’s market value to the price at which coins last moved, helping to determine whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued. Another critical metric is SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which measures whether Bitcoin holders are selling at a profit or a loss. 此外，NUPL（净未实现利润/损失）根据整个网络的未实现收益和损失来跟踪比特币持有者的整体盈利能力。 根据这些指标，比特币可能正在进入 6 至 12 个月的盘整阶段——这是历史上主要牛市之后出现的模式。 如果这是真的，比特币对流动性增加的反应可能会延迟而不是立即出现，这与之前的周期相似，即流动性扩张需要数月才能转化为看涨的价格行动。 与此同时，制度阻力也在加大。美国最近采用了比特币战略储备，标志着政府对比特币资产的看法发生了重大转变。 然而，这一举措并未受到全球金融机构的欢迎。长期倡导比特币、萨尔瓦多政府比特币高级顾问马克斯·凯泽 (Max Keiser) 指出，国际货币基金组织和信用评级机构已经开始下调美国信用评级，理由是比特币具有“不稳定影响”。 国际货币基金组织（以及各大信用评级机构）以比特币的不稳定影响为由下调了美国的信用评级。他们建议美国立即清算其 BSR（比特币战略储备）。— Max Keiser (@maxkeiser) 2025 年 3 月 17 日 凯泽补充说，国际货币基金组织现在建议立即清算 BSR，这引发了人们对美国比特币持有量可能面临政治压力的担忧。 如果美国政府在这种压力下开始出售其比特币储备，至少在短期内，这可能会带来额外的下行势头。 投资者应保持对短期波动的谨慎态度，同时密切关注流动性趋势和政府行动。比特币未来几个月的走势可能需要耐心等待，才能看到下一个重大走势的形成。 Trade wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

A United States resident has been sentenced to over 30 years in prison for sending cryptocurrency to support the Islamic State terrorist organization. Mohammed Azharuddin Chhipa, a 35-year-old from Springfield, Virginia, was handed a sentence of 30 years and four months by a federal judge on May 7.  According to the Department of Justice, Chhipa sent more than $185,000 to ISIS operatives over a three-year period, helping fund escape operations and combat efforts in Syria.  Prosecutors said he played a key role in moving funds through cryptocurrency to conceal their origins and avoid detection. Chhipa’s sentencing comes after a federal jury convicted him in December 2024 on one count of conspiracy to provide material support to a designated foreign terrorist organization and four counts of providing or attempting to provide such support. The DOJ described him as a key financial facilitator who used social media to raise money and then converted those funds into crypto before sending them to intermediaries in Turkey From there, the money was smuggled across the border into Syria to reach ISIS fighters and female supporters stuck in detention camps. You might also like:US government seizes crypto tied to Hamas terrorist financing The DOJ said Chhipa’s actions helped bolster ISIS’s operational capacity. His primary contact during the scheme was a British-born ISIS member based in Syria known for planning terror attacks and orchestrating breakouts. Prosecutors said Chhipa used various tactics to hide his activity, including misspelled email accounts and aliases when buying travel tickets, and even attempted to flee the U.S. during the investigation. He traveled through multiple countries, including Mexico, Guatemala, Panama, and Germany, before he was stopped in Egypt and returned to the U.S. under an Interpol Blue Notice. According to U.S. Attorney Erik S. Siebert, “Chhipa knowingly and persistently collected and provided a considerable amount of money to fund the violence of an organization bent on forcing their extremist ideology on others.” The May 7 sentencing is the latest in a growing series of U.S. enforcement actions targeting the use of cryptocurrency in terrorist financing. Authorities have ramped up efforts to dismantle digital funding networks linked to groups like ISIS, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.  Last month, the DOJ seized over $200,000 in cryptocurrency tied to Hamas operations, part of a broader scheme that laundered over $1.5 million since October 2024.  The U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has also been actively targeting wallets associated with sanctioned entities. In April the agency, blacklisted eight crypto addresses used by the Houthis to fund arms purchases and evade sanctions. U.S. enforcement agencies continue to stress that disrupting financial pipelines is key to weakening terror groups’ capabilities. Read more:Lawmaker warns crypto miners in Chechnya will be treated like terrorists in 2025

Pi Network price continued its downward trend on Saturday as concerns about its centralization and token unlocks remained. Pi Coin (PI) dropped to $0.7040, down by over 57% from its highest point this week. This decline in a volume environment led to a $6 billion wipeout as the market cap moved from $11 billion to $5 billion.  Pi Network has numerous risks, key among them is the continued centralization. CoinMarketCap data shows that Pi has a maximum supply of 100 billion coins and 7.15 billion in circulation.  Pi differs from Bitcoin (BTC), whose new coins are produced through mining, which involves solving complex mathematical calculations. It also differs from proof-of-stake crypto projects like Cardano (ADA) and Avalanche (AVAX), which depend on validators.  Instead, all the 100 billion Pi coins have already been pre-mined and stashed into wallets controlled by the Pi Foundation. See below. The foundation controls the 92 billion unlocked coins. Pi Foundation coins | Source: PiScan This situation presents substantial risks to the Pi Network community. For one, the membership of the so-called Pi Foundation has not been made public, and the community members’ input is not represented in it.  The other risk is when a hacker or an insider accesses the Pi Foundation wallets and decides to dump the tokens. Additionally, the Pi Foundation is not subject to any audit to verify its holdings, which are estimated to be worth $70 billion. You might also like:Here’s why Pi Network price dropped after the ecosystem fund news This centralization and opaqueness mostly explain why major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase have resisted listing Pi coin, three months after the mainnet launch.  Pi Network has other risks that are hurting its price. For example, millions of tokens are brought to the market each month. 1.48 billion tokens will be unlocked in the next 12 months, and billions more in the next few years.  Pi Network price analysis Pi Coin price chart | Source: crypto.news The eight-hour chart shows that the Pi Coin price peaked at $1.6673 ahead of the highly anticipated ecosystem news event. It then plunged to the current $0.6980, its lowest point in over a week.  Pi has moved below the key support at $0.7760, the highest swing on April 12. Moving below that support invalidated the formation of the bullish break-and-retest pattern. The coin has also moved below the 25-period moving average, while the Relative Strength Index has pointed downwards and moved below 50.  Therefore, the Pi Network price will likely drop and retest support at $0.6, which coincides with the ascending trendline connecting the lowest swings since April 7. A drop below that level will point to more downside, potentially $0.40. Read more:Pi Network drops more than 25%, breaking week-long rally

Jump Crypto has acquired a significant equity stake in Securitize for an undisclosed price. Jump Crypto, the digital asset arm of Chicago quantitative trading firm Jump Trading, has acquired a significant equity stake in Securitize, which specializes in real-world asset tokenization. Financial details of the deal were not disclosed. This partnership aims to enhance institutional access to tokenized assets, like Treasurys, private credit, and private equity, and improve collateral management solutions, especially as the demand for real-world asset tokenization grows. “We think that the market should be digesting this investment really as a signal that firms like Jump now have conviction in not only tokenization, but the role and the impact that tokenization is having on capital markets, capital formation and investment accessibility on chain,” said Securitize’s COO Michael Sonneshein in a statement. Currently, over $22 billion of real-world assets are represented on blockchains, according to rwz.xyz. You might also like:RedStone and Securitize bring $150m BCAP token onchain via ZKsync price feed Jump’s backing marks Securitize’s first external investment since BlackRock’s $47 million funding round last year. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund is the company’s first investment vehicle focused on blockchain technology. The fund operates like a money market fund, managing $2.86 billion in assets. Why this deal matters Since launching a little over a year ago, the investment in tokenized Treasury products has increased by 800%, reaching nearly $7 billion. This growth suggests that investors seeking better returns are increasingly interested in these new, blockchain-based investment options. Looking ahead, Securitize is gearing up to launch Converge, a new blockchain developed in collaboration with Ethena Labs. Designed to support DeFi and tokenized assets, Converge aims to provide a compliant gateway for institutional capital into DeFi. The launch is slated for this quarter. Read more:Securitize receives $47m funding round headed by BlackRock

在该公司宣布比特币储备量同比增长 23% 后，HIVE Digital 的股价大幅上涨。 加拿大加密货币挖矿公司 HIVE Digital 发布了其 2 月份的生产结果，显示其比特币 (BTC) 持有量同比增长超过 20%。这家总部位于温哥华的公司在 3 月 9 日的新闻稿中表示，它已经开采了 89 个 BTC，使其 HODL 投资组合增加到 2,620 个 BTC，价值约 2.2 亿美元。 虽然该公司的比特币持有量同比增长了 23%，但其加密货币持有量环比有所下降，不过 HIVE Digital 并未透露当月售出的比特币数量。 “[...] 与上月相比，BTC 持有量出现下降，因为 HIVE 战略性地出售了部分 BTC 以投资资本资产，包括 Bitfarms 在巴拉圭的 200 兆瓦水力发电比特币挖矿资产。” HIVE数字 你可能还喜欢：比特币储备激增 263%，加密货币矿商 HIVE Digital 股价飙升 纳斯达克数据显示，受此消息影响，HIVE Digital 盘后股价上涨 4.76% 至 2 美元。与此同时，罗森布拉特调整了 HIVE Digital 的预期，预测股价区间为 4.80 美元至 7.13 美元。该公司表示，平均目标价代表涨幅接近 200%。 HIVE Digital 首席执行官 Aydin Kilic 表示，公司专注于实现“变革之年”，将公司定位为“世界上最大、最高效的比特币矿工之一”，并补充说，HIVE 在巴拉圭的 300 MW 扩建计划将在 2025 年 9 月之前将其哈希率从 6 EH/s 提高 4 倍至 25 EH/s，“这一计划仍在按计划进行”。HIVE 表示，预计将在 2025 年第一季度完成对 Bitfarms 200 MW Yguazú 站点的战略收购。 阅读更多：HIVE Digital 以 5600 万美元收购 Bitfarms 的巴拉圭网站，目标是到第三季度达到 25 EH/s