2025-03-14 23:21:29
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标普 500 指数接近看跌模式,比特币死亡交叉预示进一步下跌

标普 500 指数接近看跌模式,比特币死亡交叉预示进一步下跌

比特币和其他加密货币今年一直保持强劲下跌趋势,价值缩水超过 1 万亿美元。

比特币(BTC)从今年迄今的高点 109,300 美元跌至 82,000 美元,而以太坊(ETH)、瑞波币(XRP)和卡尔达诺(ADA)等热门山寨币也出现了更大幅度的跌幅。

Crypto prices have fallen due to rising fear in the financial markets. The crypto fear and greed index has dropped to the extreme fear zone of 19. Similarly, the fear gauge tracked by CNN Money has dropped to 20.

The main catalyst for this sell-off is growing concern that the United States is heading toward a self-inflicted recession due to Donald Trump’s tariffs. 

These fears have outweighed positive news in the crypto industry. For example, the Securities and Exchange Commission has ended numerous lawsuits affecting companies like Uniswap, Kraken, and Coinbase. 

此外,唐纳德·特朗普还签署了一项行政命令,建立战略比特币储备 以及数字货币的囤积。此外,越来越多的机构投资者,如 Citadel、Blackrock、Rumble 和 Trump Media 也开始购买比特币。

如果标准普尔 500 指数形成死亡交叉模式(当 50 天和 200 天移动平均线相互交叉时出现的技术形态),比特币和山寨币可能会进一步下跌。这种模式通常预示着长期熊市的开始。

The spread between the 50-day and 200-day weighted moving averages (WMA) of the S&P 500 index has continued to narrow. The 50-day WMA is at $5,900, while the 200-day WMA is at $5,857. A crossover would likely lead to further downside, as the index dropped 23% the last time it formed this pattern in 2022.


S&P 500
S&P 500 index chart | Source: TradingView

The S&P 500 index is often seen as a reliable indicator for the crypto market since both are considered risky assets and tend to move in correlation.

Bitcoin price has already formed a death cross


Bitcoin price
BTC price chart | Source: crypto.news

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price has already formed a death cross, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages crossing each other. This cross happened after Bitcoin dropped below key support at $89,000 — the neckline of the double-top pattern at $108,500. A double top is one of the most bearish patterns in technical analysis.

因此,最有可能的情况是,比特币跌至 73,722 美元或 68,960 美元后反弹。第一个目标是去年 3 月的最高波动,第二个目标是 2021 年 11 月的最高点。

可能阻止标普 500 指数和加密货币市场进一步崩盘的潜在催化剂是下周即将公布的美联储利率决定。美元指数和债券市场所暗示的更为鸽派的基调可能会导致反弹。

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