Bitwise 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 解释比特币为何会达到 1,000,000 美元

2025 年 2 月 17 日，Bitwise Invest 首席执行官 Hunter Horsley 在 X 上表示我们低估了比特币。他列举了比特币即将被广泛采用和价值 100 万美元的原因。他挑战所有人提出反驳意见，对登月之路上的主要问题进行了简要总结。

2025 年“将成为分水岭的一年”

In a series of X posts Horsley claimed he has never been more optimistic about Bitcoin before and outlined several reasons why this year we are going to witness Bitcoin taking “massive leaps into the mainstream.” 2025 will be “a watershed year,” according to Horsley.

Horsley 指出，比特币 ETF 的增长、政府和企业大量购买比特币以及有利的加密货币法规是今年推动比特币上涨的因素。除此之外，Horsley 还概述了一些因素，例如当今地缘政治环境中对比特币的需求不断增长，以及金融机构和银行为让公众更容易接受比特币而做出的努力。最后，Bitwise 的首席执行官补充说，越来越多有信誉的人对比特币表示赞赏，这进一步提升了比特币的价值。

其中一些原因并不新鲜，每次有人说“下一轮牛市将完全不同”时，这些原因就会重现。机构投资者对比特币的兴趣、高调的支持和改进的监管，这些都预示着 2020 年加密货币将迎来反弹。然而，所有这些因素今天的影响规模却是另一回事。

For instance, many Wall Street veterans went from firm disapproval of Bitcoin to advocacy of digital currencies in recent years. Today, BlackRock manages the biggest bag of bitcoins in the world. In October 2017, BlackRock CEO called Bitcoin an “index of money laundering.” 

In 2018, Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett called Bitcoin a “rat poison” while the company co-chair Charlie Munger compared Bitcoin trading to selling turds. Buffett continued to dismiss crypto in the following years. However, in 2021 Berkshire Hathaway invested in Brazilian Nu Bank, a digital bank working with cryptocurrency. These are only two of many examples of how big institutional investors embraced Bitcoin in the 2020s, paving the way for an unprecedented Bitcoin boom.

As for the new trends unseen during the 2017 and 2021 rallies, 2025 has a lot to offer. Crypto ETFs have already helped to elevate the support level of the BTC price in early 2024, attracting new big players to the crypto market. 

The current level of demand for Bitcoin from entire countries to certain jurisdictions and corporations draws comparisons to the arms race or space race of the past. For instance, there are 20 Bitcoin reserve bills proposed in 18 states of the USA. If passed, they may end up in states purchasing nearly 250,000 BTC.

As for the geopolitical side of things, Russia doubling down on Bitcoin as a means to dodge Western sanctions and facilitate overseas trade may be a vivid example of how the global outlook opens gates to crypto. We saw it before when the spring of 2020 proved that people see crypto as a haven in periods of global shakeups. These days the world is hardly more stable than in 2020.

各类参与者对比特币的需求在 2024 年和 2025 年增长尤为迅速，而 2024 年的减半在新牛市开始时就削减了供应量。

潜在的陷阱

Horsley 不仅给出了看涨预测背后的原因，还敦促他的订阅者说出他们认为哪些因素可能会阻碍比特币达到 1,000,000 美元。这有效地创建了一个不错的主题，列举了与比特币的未来和现状相关的所有主要问题。

One of the disturbing concerns is associated with quantum computers. Their computational power may potentially turn out to be high enough to mess with the Bitcoin network. The question of whether quantum computers will effectively end Bitcoin as we know it today still has no answer, and it’s hardly good news. One of the commenters didn’t point out quantum computers but just noted that future technologies, in general, may make Bitcoin irrelevant.

While quantum computers are a potential threat, another mentioned problem on the way to the moon is scalability. An X user going by the @dotkrueger moniker named the inability of Bitcoin to scale “the best argument” against Bitcoin reaching one million soon. However, he added that wrapped Bitcoin may be considered as a solution to this issue. Horsley agreed, adding that Bitcoin ETFs are another remedy to the scalability problem.

Other commenters cited such concerns as a lack of use cases, people’s reluctance to use Bitcoin as a currency, and alleged dropping levels of decentralization. One of the commenters showcased a bit of wit by saying that if Trump and Musk make the dollar deflationary, the demand for Bitcoin will go down. 

Horsley is not the only expert saying that Bitcoin is going to go much further than we expect. Brian Armstrong, Robert Kiyosaki, and Daniel Roberts, to name a few, express similar views. The reasoning may vary, but all of them expect exponential growth in Bitcoin prices.