Coinbase expanded its global footprint in the crypto derivatives market with the acquisition of Deribit but the companyâs Q1 report prompted a Wall Street analyst to revise his target lower.
In a note to clients on Friday, H.C. Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese provided a detailed breakdown of Coinbaseâs acquisition, earnings performance, and updated his outlook on the stockâs valuation.
Coinbase to acquire Deribit in $2.9b deal
In the largest crypto M&A deal to date, Coinbase announced plans to acquire Deribit for $2.9 billion, consisting of $700 million in cash and 11 million shares of Coinbase stock. Deribit is the worldâs largest crypto options exchange with a 75% market share and over $30 billion in open interest.
Analyst Mike Colonnese sees the deal as a strong strategic fit, immediately making Coinbase the leading global crypto derivatives platform, while accelerating its international expansion and boosting cross-sell potential with spot and futures trading. Deribit is expected to be accretive to profitability, given its consistent positive EBITDA track record.
Q1 2025 earnings recap
Coinbase reported Q1 revenue of $2.03 billion, slightly below expectations, with trading volumes falling 10% quarter-over-quarter to $393 billion. Retail volumes dropped 17%, while institutional volumes declined 9%. Transaction revenue came in at $1.26 billion, down 19% sequentially and short of consensus.
Despite weaker transaction revenue, subscription and services revenue hit a record $698.1 million, up 9% quarter-over-quarter, driven by strong growth in USDC holdings and Coinbase One subscriptions. Adjusted EBITDA was $929.9 million (47.4% margin), below Q4âs $1.29 billion, while adjusted EPS was $1.94, in line with consensus.
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Price target revised lower despite clear catalysts for growth
Despite what the analyst describes as a âmonumentalâ Deribit acquisition, Colonnese revised his 2025 and 2026 revenue estimates downward to $7.4 billion and $9.5 billion, respectively, citing weaker-than-expected transaction volumes. He also lowered his adjusted EPS forecasts to $5.92 and $12.11, with a price target lowered to $305 from $350. Still, the analyst remains optimistic about Coinbaseâs long-term outlook, particularly as the regulatory environment evolves.
âWe believe greater regulatory clarity for crypto in the U.S., specifically as it relates to formal stablecoin and market structure legislation, which we could see this year, will prove to be a major tailwind for Coinbase, and will drive an acceleration of institutional participation into the space,â Colonnese wrote.
In addition, more than 200 firms including BlackRock and PayPal already rely on Coinbaseâs infrastructure and more tarditional finance institutions will find it beneficial âto seek outâ Coinbaseâs products and services rather than build their own.
As such, âthe stars are aligning for an extended bull market for crypto over the next 12 to 18 months,â the analyst wrote.
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WCT jumped 11% following news that Jupiter stakers will be eligible for a token claim tied to WalletConnectâs Solana expansion.
WalletConnect Token (WCT) jumped on Thursday as buzz spread about an upcoming airdrop tied to Solana (SOL), and some Jupiter stakers are now on the list. Following the news, the price of WCT rose 11.6% and is trading at $1.06, according to data from CoinGecko. The token has gained 276.8% over the past month, rising from $0.2814 on April 15.
The price rally followed growing anticipation around WCTâs expansion to Solana. At the Solana Accelerate event, WalletConnect Foundation founder Pedro Gomes said the token would go live on the network later this month via Wormholeâs Native Token Transfers standard.
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Airdrop details havenât been finalized yet, but the WalletConnect Foundation has confirmed that a 5 million WCT claim will be available for Solana users, with Jupiter, Phantom, Backpack, and Solflare helping identify eligible users and distribute tokens.
âThe goal is to identify real users, those already building, staking, and transacting on Solana. [â¦] This follows the success of the 2024 token claim, which saw 50 million WCT distributed to early contributors across the WalletConnect ecosystem, previously in the Optimism and Ethereum ecosystems.â
WalletConnect Foundation
Despite the announcement, eligibility details and claim timelines are expected to be announced soon. With the launch on Solana, WCT becomes a multichain token after its earlier deployments on Ethereum and Optimism.
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David Baileyâs Bitcoin-native holding company, Nakamoto, has pulled off a dramatic entrance into the public markets, raising $710 million and announcing a merger with healthcare firm KindlyMD to form one of the most ambitious Bitcoin treasuries to date.Â
The move positions the new entity as a publicly traded Bitcoin (BTC) conglomerate aimed at pushing BTC into the heart of global capital markets, according to a press release on the matter.Â
The deal includes a $510 million private placement and $200 million in convertible notes, marking the largest PIPE ever in a public crypto-related transaction.Â
Shares of KindlyMD surged more than 650% in premarket trading following the announcement.
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David Baileyâs inputÂ
Bailey, a longtime Bitcoin advocate and advisor to Donald Trumpâs 2024 campaign, will take the reins as CEO of the combined company. His goal: to build a new breed of financial institution that uses Bitcoin as a core asset, akin to what Morgan or Rothschild once represented for fiat finance.Â
âEvery balance sheet, public or private, will hold Bitcoin,â Bailey said in a statement. âWe intend to be the first conglomerate designed for that world.â
The newly merged company aims to increase its Bitcoin holdings per shareâwhat Bailey calls âBitcoin Yieldââthrough future equity and debt offerings. The idea is to offer public investors a transparent, compliant structure to gain Bitcoin exposure without directly buying BTC.
While KindlyMD will continue operating its network of clinics focused on opioid reduction and alternative medicine, the merged entityâs real focus is financial.Â
The switch is backed by heavyweight crypto investors such as Adam Back, Balaji Srinivasan, and Jihan Wu.
The merger gives Bailey a Nasdaq-listed vehicle to package Bitcoin into equities, bonds, and hybrids for global exchange listings. The company will retain the KDLY ticker for now, with a new name and symbol expected following shareholder approval.
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Bitcoin price has stalled at $105,000 amid increasing spot ETF outflows and as sentiment among investors turned to neutral.Â
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $105,550 on Sunday, June 8, up by 5% from its lowest point last week. It remains 5.75% below its highest point this year.
Bitcoin has wavered recently because of investor profit-taking. In May, its price surged to a record high of $111,900, a 50% surge from the lowest level in April.
BTC also wavered as data pointed to outflows from exchange-traded funds. SoSoValue data shows that these ETFs shed $128 million last week after shedding $157 million a week earlier. It was the first back-to-back weekly outflows since April.
Further data shows that sentiment among crypto investors has turned neutral this month. The closely-watched fear and greed index has dropped to the neutral point of 56.Â
Bitcoin has also wavered after reports emerged that China was considering selling its seized coins. Data shows that it holds 190,000 coins worth over $20 billion.
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Still, Bitcoin has two key catalysts that may push it higher in the coming weeks. First, the chart below shows that the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has been in a freefall this month and currently stands at 1.18 million, down from 1.35 million when the month started. It has fallen from over 3.5 million in 2020.
Bitcoin supply on exchanges | Source: Santiment
Second, more companies are intensifying their Bitcoin purchases. Strategy is raising over $2 billion more to buy Bitcoin, while Trump Media has filed to raise up to $12 billion for purchases. Other firms like MetaPlanet and The Blockchain Group are intensifying their purchases.
Bitcoin price technical analysis
BTC price chart | Source: crypto.news
The other Bitcoin catalyst is its solid technicals. The daily chart shows that it has slowly formed a cup-and-handle pattern and is completing the handle section.Â
Bitcoin has also remained above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which provide substantial support. It has also remained above the major S/R pivot point of the Murrey Math Lines tool.Â
Therefore, the coin will likely bounce back in the coming weeks. The initial target is the cupâs upper side at $109,477. After moving above the all-time high of $111,900, it may surge to $150,000.
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